UK’s nuclear threat not enough to deter Putin, ex-military chief warns
Britain and its NATO allies must upgrade their military capabilities if the coalition of the willing in Ukraine is to be a successful deterrent against Vladimir Putin, a former army chief has warned.
Former Royal Air Force commander and chief of defense staff Sir Jock Stirrup said in a damning report for the Policy Exchange think tank that the UK was hampered by an “outdated nuclear doctrine” and must recognize that deterrence relies on “a range of capabilities, not just nuclear weapons”.
He recommends that Britain and its allies restart large-scale military exercises with a nuclear element to show Russia, China and others that there could be a “slide” to full nuclear war as a “cognitive deterrent”.
It comes after Sir Keir Starmer announced that Britain would send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine alongside France if a ceasefire is reached with Russia.
The prime minister refrained from speaking to the House of Commons about the plan, refusing to say how many armed forces personnel could be sent to the war-torn country and accepting that MPs would vote first on the deployment. Reports indicate that the UK’s force could consist of as few as 7,500 soldiers.
But Sir Keir was warned by Sir Richard Shirreff, who served as NATO’s deputy supreme allied commander in Europe, and former defense secretary Gavin Williamson that he would need at least 50,000 troops in Ukraine to deter Putin from attacking again; The UK army currently numbers less than 80,000.
The international situation escalated further on Wednesday, when the United States, with the help of the United Kingdom, seized the Russian-flagged Bella 1 oil tanker bound for Venezuela.
US European Command confirmed the seizure in a post on social media, saying it was due to a “violation of US sanctions” after two weeks of pursuit across the Atlantic Ocean.
Sir Jock’s report – Sir Michael Quinlan’s Theory of Deterrence – was written with Daniel Skeffington, co-ordinator of Policy Exchange’s Nuclear Enterprise Commission.
They argued: “It is clear that Western powers have failed to deter Russian aggression in Ukraine because they cannot provide deterrence in a way that is meaningful to their leaders.”
They noted that the UK had become dependent on submarine-based nuclear deterrents, but warned: “Deterrence works as a ‘package’: there is no clear distinction in deterrence theory between nuclear and conventional weapons. Deterrence therefore relies on a range of capabilities, not just nuclear weapons.”
They added: “Deterrence cannot be based solely on the possession of capabilities; it must be accompanied by a demonstrable ability and willingness to use them.”
Policy Exchange’s article also argues that Britain’s intellectual capacity to think about nuclear weapons, once at the forefront of the allies’ deterrence doctrine, has declined significantly since 1989. As the security environment increasingly deteriorates, this creates gaps that are exploited by the UK’s enemies.
The article stated: “Of course, over the past two decades, the evidence of President Putin’s aggressive expansionist intent and the rapid development of China’s nuclear capabilities have brought us fully closer to the issue of deterrence between states and alliances.”
The broad concerns outlined in the report come as the UK and European allies reassess their defense footprint and spending.
Sir Keir set a target of spending 3.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense and security and called on other allies to follow suit; Donald Trump has made clear that the United States expects Europe to pay for its defense in the future.
Mr. Trump’s threats to seize Greenland from Denmark and the United States’ refusal to resort to military action to seize the region and the situation in Ukraine have forced European leaders to reconsider their trust in the United States on defense.
But concerns are growing about the ability of Britain and France to guarantee peace in Ukraine.
Sir Richard Shirreff, who served as NATO’s deputy supreme allied commander in Europe from 2011 to 2014, said allied forces would need at least 50,000 troops in Ukraine to deter an attack from Russia.
Former defense secretary Gavin Williamson, meanwhile, warned that the number of tokens would not be enough and said the UK would need something equivalent to the 40,000-plus “Rhine armies” deployed in West Germany after the Second World War as a Cold War deterrent.
Downing Street sources said that they expected other countries to get involved and that Germany also suggested that it would sign the voluntary force coalition.
