Trump to use State of the Union to win over voters

President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address will likely be a test of the message Republicans will send to voters in the November elections for control of the House and Senate.

The president and his party appear vulnerable; Polls show most Americans distrust how Trump is running the government in his first year back in office.

In addition, the Supreme Court ruled last week that Trump lacked the authority to impose most of his broad tariffs, undermining one of the key levers of his economic and foreign policy.

Although Trump is expected to focus on domestic issues on Tuesday, his address is overshadowed by his increasing threats of a military strike against Iran over its nuclear program.

Here are a few things to watch as Trump tries to make his case:

The economy and immigration are no longer strengths for Trump.

Trump returned to the White House with promises to lower prices and restore immigration order in America.

But on both issues public opinion turned against him.

Only 39 percent of U.S. adults approve of his economic leadership and only 38 percent support him on immigration, according to the latest poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

These low numbers show that the country is still concerned about the cost of food, housing and utilities; This problem is exacerbated by Trump’s rapid use of tariffs.

They also show how the public was disturbed by videos of violent clashes with protesters, including two U.S. citizens killed by federal agents.

Trump has yet to announce major new policy ideas on the economy since his party passed a massive tax-cut bill last year.

In recent speeches, he has largely reiterated to the public about tax cuts, plans to reduce mortgage rates and a new government website for purchasing prescription drugs.

The Supreme Court’s decision on Friday against most of Trump’s sweeping global tariffs and the president’s vow to use other methods to move forward on import duties will only prolong the economic turmoil on trade and prices.

“I think it’s even more important that the conversation really focus on the economy,” Republican strategist Alex Conant said.

Conant said that between the tariff decision and the Commerce Department’s report Friday showing U.S. economic growth slowed in the final three months of last year, “it should reinforce the president’s economic message.”

The administration is trying to show that despite Trump’s reorganization of global trade and tax cuts, the economy is still struggling due to the elections of his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, in 2021 and 2022.

But Trump is also trying to capitalize on positive signs in the current economy, such as recent stock market gains.

“Watch the State of the Union. We’re going to talk about the economy. We inherited a mess,” Trump said at the White House on Wednesday.

Of course, Trump also expressed the same type of argument, mentioning Biden’s name 13 times in his speech to the joint session of Congress last year.

Trump’s focus on foreign policy has yet to resonate politically.

Despite Trump’s America First belief, his aggressive approach abroad last year raised concerns among some supporters about whether Trump should spend more time focusing on voters at home.

Trump, who has made clear that he has his sights set on the Nobel Peace Prize, will likely use this speech to remind Americans of his attempts to broker peace agreements in global conflicts.

But in many ways, the president is not extending the olive branches.

Over the past year, his administration has launched deadly military strikes against ships allegedly smuggling drugs near South America, as well as attacks in Yemen, Nigeria and Iran.

Trump also shocked the world in January with a surprise raid to capture Venezuela’s then-leader Nicolás Maduro and floated the idea of ​​using force to seize Greenland.

Trump has strengthened the US military’s presence in the Middle East in recent weeks while pressuring Iran.

But he has yet to make a clear statement to voters about what his actions abroad mean for their lives.

He may even minimize foreign policy in the State of the Union, although he believes it is a great success.

“Although his final year in office has been dominated by foreign policy, this speech will focus mostly on the economy,” Conant said.

Vice President J.D. Vance made a similar prediction in an interview on Fox News Channel on Saturday, saying in his speech: “You’re going to hear a lot about the importance of bringing jobs back to our country, supporting manufacturing again, all these great factories that are being built.”

He said Trump will also talk about reducing energy costs.

The State of the Union has in the past been about summarizing achievements and trying to unite the country, but increasingly it reflects divisions in society.

“What you would expect is a version of a campaign speech in which the Democrats are the villains, the Republicans he likes are the heroes, and he is the savior not only of the nation but of the world,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, a communications professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

Trump supporters can savor the moment in 2020 when the president reunited a military family in the middle of his speech.

He also awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom to conservative radio host and author Rush Limbaugh, who died in 2021.

But the moment turned off Democrats who viewed Limbaugh as a disruptive figure in the political media.

The chamber’s response could be as important as Trump’s words.

Trump gives the speech, but the audience sitting in the House chamber also plays a big role.

When Trump delivered his 2020 State of the Union address, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi theatrically ripped up a copy of the speech, overshadowing much of what Trump said.

Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader of the New York House of Representatives, said in a letter to his colleagues that “it is important to have a strong, determined and honorable Democratic presence in the House,” adding that some members may choose not to attend the meeting to protest Trump.

But there’s also the possibility that Democrats could upset Trump, as Al Green did in 2025, and lead to his removal from the chamber.

Conant said it would be interesting to see the reaction of Congressional representatives if Trump gave a more comprehensive explanation in his speech about why he is using other mechanisms in federal law to maintain his tariffs.

“I think House Republicans who don’t applaud his tariffs will feature prominently on broadcast television,” he said.

While some presidential statements are enduring, much of the rhetoric in State of the Union addresses is forgettable.

And with Trump known for going off script, there’s a good chance a stray comment or social media post will sway his message.

Matt Latimer, former Republican speechwriter for then-President George W. Bush, noted that people hear the president’s speech all the time, so the State of the Union has lost much of its luster.

The State of the Union “only matters in moments when the country is experiencing major trauma (war, attack, global crisis) and a president and Congress want to speak on behalf of the country with a (mostly) unified voice,” he said.

“That’s not what we’re experiencing right now.”

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