Myanmar is going to the polls. But it’s not the people who hold the power – it’s China | Myanmar

Myanmar’s military has managed to gain momentum in its fight against a determined group of opposition groups, retaking some areas and pressing ahead with a widely condemned election that begins Sunday.

It’s a turnaround for the military, which appeared so beleaguered that some dared to question whether it would collapse.

Analysts point to China and its shifting support as one of the most important factors changing the dynamics of the five-year conflict, which first broke out after the 2021 coup.

“This is actually a role that China is playing in turning things in the military regime’s favor,” says Jason Tower, a senior expert at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, which focuses on Myanmar. Beijing has used the border closures to pressure powerful ethnic armed groups in the country’s north to agree a ceasefire and even return territory to the military, while increasing diplomatic support and continuing arms transfers.

“Newer drone technologies [introduced to the military] “It’s about China, it’s about the crackdown on ethnic armed organizations, it’s about the decreasing amount of resistance the junta is facing in the northern part of the country, which is China,” he added. China has also included the military in platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Strengthening its international stance, Summit added Tower.

Civil war rages across much of the country, with the military still unable to control large swaths of territory, but Chinese support has allowed it to gain at least some territory.

But China is not a particular fan of Myanmar’s military. While it sells weapons to the junta, it also has ties to armed groups the army is fighting. China’s approach to both sides has changed.

Beijing’s response to the coup was initially muted, but it became increasingly disgruntled with the conflict and economic chaos that followed, as new pro-democracy groups took up arms to fight the junta, at times in collaboration with more established ethnic armed groups that have long fought for greater autonomy.

China, which shares a 2,185 km (1,358 mi) border with Myanmar, is a major investor in the country and has ambitious plans to build a corridor through Myanmar connecting southwestern China directly to the Indian Ocean. However, infrastructure projects were seriously disrupted due to post-coup conflicts.

China is frustrated not only by the spiraling conflict but also by the explosion of organized crime. It was anger over the proliferation of scam sites in border areas that led China to give tacit approval to northern-based ethnic armed groups to launch an offensive against the junta in late 2023. Such groups rely on the Chinese border for arms supplies.

These northern ethnic armed groups, which entered into conflict after the coup, caught the army unprepared and large areas of land fell.

Morgan Michaels, a research fellow in Southeast Asian security and defense at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said China had “corrected its course” as China closed borders to force ethnic armed groups to back down. “Did China really aim to make these groups powerful enough to overthrow the Myanmar state apparatus? I don’t think so, because as soon as that was possible, China stepped in,” Michaels said.

China did not approve of the coup because of the instability it brought, but feared even greater chaos would ensue if the junta collapsed.

making Beijing happy

For now, China has thrown its weight behind Myanmar’s military and its election plans, which have been condemned as fraudulent by observers and UN experts. Earlier this year, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi expressed hope that the vote would lead to “an end to hostilities between parties and internal peace with national governance based on the will of the people,” as well as national reconciliation and “social harmony,” according to China’s foreign ministry. It will also send election observers, as well as countries such as Russia and Vietnam.

There is no real opposition in the vote, which will be dominated by the army’s proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, which provides more than a fifth of the candidates and is running virtually unopposed in some areas. Under the constitution, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is required to assume the role of president, commander-in-chief or speaker of parliament; but many believe he will be unwilling to give up power.

The military has reassured China that economic projects will continue and vowed to crack down on scam compounds after bombing parts of the notorious KK Park compound in recent months. However, it is unclear whether the army can keep its promises.

If China sees the military as squandering opportunities to broker a ceasefire with its rivals, or if there is still no progress on infrastructure projects in two years, it’s possible Beijing could drift away from the military again, Tower said.

Anti-China sentiment has increased in Myanmar, including the perception that China is fueling the conflict to expand its influence over the country; That’s a characterization that Yun Sun, senior fellow and director of the China program at the Stimson Center, disputes.

“China does not need war to exert influence on any of the political players in the country,” he said.

“I think the Chinese will see the situation as a dynamism, that the balance of power will eventually lead to some stability,” he said. “Neither side is necessarily the horse China chose.”