ASML Investors Press Executives on Outlook Despite Bookings Beat
(Bloomberg) — ASML Holding NV failed to satisfy investors with record orders in the fourth quarter as analysts continued to question whether the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker can sustain its AI-powered momentum.
The company’s bookings in the fourth quarter reached 13.2 billion euros ($15.8 billion), far exceeding the average analyst forecast of 6.85 billion euros, as demand for its AI infrastructure’s most advanced equipment increased, the Veldhoven, Netherlands-based company said on Wednesday. Still, analysts have expressed concerns about the company’s ability to expand capacity and hit the top end of its revenue expectations this year.
“The last three months have brought a lot of clarity about what artificial intelligence means for the semiconductor industry,” Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen also said on the call with analysts that reaching the top end of the firm’s revenue range depends on overcoming two constraints: the ability for customers to finish chip manufacturing facilities in time to pick up their own vehicles, and ASML’s ability to expand capacity to meet growing demand.
“We are increasing throughout the year to meet the demand,” Dassen said in the meeting. “But demand also depends somewhat on the progress our customers are making in completing their chip facilities,” he said.
ASML’s shares fell 1.9% to 1,194.40 euros in Amsterdam. The stock had previously risen to a record high due to strong bookings. The company, which is Europe’s most valuable company, also announced that it plans to lay off approximately 1,700 people, most of them in the Netherlands and some in the USA, in order to facilitate the organization. This represents approximately 4% of the company’s workforce.
The company said net income in the fourth quarter was 2.84 billion euros, although it missed estimates.
During the call with analysts, Fouquet accepted questions about the company’s production capacity for high-end tools and how many extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, lithography machines it will sell. “I feel some concern that we might be a bottleneck for the customer,” he said. “That’s not the case, certainly not this year and next year.”
ASML is the only manufacturer of the cutting-edge lithography machines needed to make advanced semiconductors, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. and Intel Corp. It counts all leading chipmakers as customers, including Nvidia Corp., whose machines are the backbone of training and running AI models in data centers. It is an integral part of the production of artificial intelligence accelerators. The Dutch company’s bookings are a sign of chipmakers’ confidence in future AI demand.
The AI boom continues into 2026, defying concerns of overinvestment and helping ASML’s market value soar to more than $500 billion this month. Meta Platforms Inc. and Microsoft Corp. are among companies pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into building data centers, prompting chipmakers to add capacity and thus increasing demand for ASML products. TSMC said this month that it expects more than $52 billion in capital spending in 2026, most of which will be on advanced manufacturing techniques.
ASML stated that more than half of last quarter’s bookings were for EUV, a total of 7.4 billion euros. During this period, revenue was generated for two high NA EUV machines, a state-of-the-art tool costing more than €350 million per part.
Total net sales amounted to 32.7 billion euros in 2025. Revenue this year is expected to be between €34 billion and €39 billion, above previous forecasts.
“ASML has hit it out of the park when it comes to order numbers,” said Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot. “Given the strength of the order book, we expect guidance to increase throughout the year.”
The company also announced a new share buyback program worth €12 billion by the end of 2028. This represents approximately 2.5% of ASML’s current market capitalization.
What Does Bloomberg Intelligence Say?
ASML could top its newly announced sales target of €34-39 billion in 2026, based on strong orders in Q4 2025 and an order backlog of €38.8 billion for chipmaking tool systems. TSMC’s strong capex plan in 2026 will also contribute to ASML’s sales growth, along with strong capex among DRAM suppliers such as SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron. — BI analysts Masahiro Wakasugi and Takumi Okano
Last week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called the rush to build data centers that can power AI models “the largest infrastructure build in human history.” Huang told the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, that “trillions of dollars” of additional investment are needed in the coming years.
China remained ASML’s largest market in the fourth quarter, accounting for 36% of net system sales. The Chinese market is expected to decline to around 20% of revenue in the future, Dassen said in a call with reporters.
ASML has never been able to sell its EUV lithography machines to China due to US-led restrictions aimed at hindering the Asian country’s progress in the semiconductor sector. It was also banned from selling the most advanced deep ultraviolet, or DUV, vehicles to the country. The machines it ships to China are eight generations behind the most advanced model. Still, Chinese chipmakers are purchasing older equipment to produce mature chips.
ASML will not report bookings in its upcoming quarterly results because the company argues the metric does not accurately capture business momentum.
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