Is Newsom Democrats’ 2028 frontrunner or a flash in the pan?

The 2028 presidential election is more than 1,000 days away, but you’re unlikely to know that from all the speculation and anticipation swirling from Sacramento to the Washington Beltway.

In the spotlight is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, fresh off his landslide victory on Proposition 50, the back-ballot measure that altered the state’s congressional map to boost Democrats and offset a Texas Republican grab for power.

Newsom is bidding for the White House and has been doing so for most of the year, though he hasn’t said it out loud. Is Newsom the Democratic frontrunner or just a flash in the pan?

Times columnists Anita Chabria and Mark Z. Barabak disagree on Newsom’s presidential hopes and more. Here the two reveal some of the differences between them.

Barabak: So, is the presidential race over, Anita? Should I spend the next few years backpacking and snowboarding in the Sierra and return in January 2029 to watch Newsom reiterate, meet the moment, and be decisively sworn in as our nation’s 48th president?

Kabriya: You should definitely spend as much time as possible in Sierra, but I have no idea if Newsom will be elected president in 2028. That’s about a million light years away politically. But I think he has a chance and is now at the forefront of the nomination race. He has positioned himself as a swift foil to President Trump and increasingly as the leader of the Democratic Party. Last week, he visited Brazil for a climate summit that Trump has dreamed of, making Newsom an American asset.

And in A new (albeit small) surveyIn a hypothetical race against Republican favorite J.D. Vance, Newsom has a three-point lead. But unexpectedly, respondents still chose Kamala Harris as their candidate choice.

To me, this shows that he is popular across the country. But you warned that Californians would have a hard time attracting voters in other states. Think his Golden State roots will negate his status as a contender?

Barabak: I’m not making any predictions. I’m smart enough to know that I’m not smart enough to know. And after 2016 and Trump’s election, the words “can’t,” “can’t,” “won’t,” “never” have been permanently erased from my political lexicon.

That said, I wouldn’t bet more than a dime on Newsom’s chances — which may eventually be worth something as it is phased out of our currency.

Look, I’m not giving in to anyone for my love of California. (And I’ve got the Golden State tattoos to prove it.) But I’m mindful of how the rest of the country views the state and politicians with California addresses. You can be sure that whoever runs against Newsom (I’m talking about fellow Democrats, not just Republicans) will have a lot to say about the state’s much higher housing, grocery, and gas prices than other places, as well as our shameful rates of poverty and homelessness.

It’s not a good look for Newsom, especially when political outrage is affordability these days.

And although I understand the governor’s call – Fight! Fight! Fight! – I liken it to the fleeting fantasies that for a time seriously discussed attorney, convicted hustler, and rhetorical coach Michael Avenatti as the Democratic presidential candidate. At a certain point — and we’re still years away — people will evaluate candidates with their heads, not their guts.

When it comes to polling, ask Edmund Muskie, Gary Hart, or Hillary Clinton how important those voices are at this extremely early stage in the presidential race. You can’t ask Muskie because the former Maine senator is dead. However, all three were front-runners who failed to win the Democratic nomination.

Kabriya: I’m not arguing for a historic case against Golden State, but I will argue that these are different days. People don’t vote with their heads. Fight me on this.

They vote for charisma, tribalism, and maybe a little hope and fear. They vote on issues as social media explains. They vote for memes.

There is no reality in our next president’s record that can be rationally evaluated; Our current president has a criminal record and it didn’t make a difference.

But as we’ve talked about ad nauseam, I think democracy is in danger. Trump has threatened to run for a third term and recently He complained about his cabinet He doesn’t show her the same fear that Chinese President Xi Jinping feels from his top advisers. And Vance has made clear that if he gets the chance to run, he is a Christian nationalist who wants to deport nearly every immigrant he catches, whether legal or not.

Being from California may not have been a historical disadvantage, especially if Trump’s authoritarianism continues and the state remains a symbol of resistance.

But our governor has an urgent scandal to deal with. His former chief of staff, Dana Williamson, was arrested on federal corruption charges. Do you think this hurt him?

Barabak: It shouldn’t be.

There is no evidence that Newsom has done anything wrong. Their opponents will try the guilt by association thing. Some already exist. But unless something damning comes to light, there’s no reason to punish the governor for the alleged wrongdoings of Williamson or the others charged in the case.

But let’s go back to 2028 and the presidential race. I think one of our main disagreements is that I believe in people. To do Don’t overvalue a candidate’s opinions and records. Not in detail, or in the way a chin-stroking political scientist might do. But voters want to know how and if a candidate can improve their lives financially.

Of course, there are many people who will reflexively support Donald Trump or Donald Duck if he becomes the Republican nominee. The same goes for Democrats who would vote for Gavin Newsom or Gavin Floyd if he were the party’s nominee. (Floyd played 13 seasons in the major leagues while Newsom played college baseball, so he has that advantage over the governor.)

But I’m talking about voters who are up for grabs, who are deciding on competitive races, who are making a very rational decision based on their life and livelihood and which candidate they believe will benefit them the most.

Admittedly, the dynamic is a little different in the primary contest. But even then, we’ve seen the whole dated/married thing over and over again. As in 2004, many Democrats “dated” Howard Dean early in the primary season but “married” John Kerry. I see electability — as in the perception of which Democrat can win the general election — to be there, along with affordability, when it comes time for primary voters to make their 2028 ballots.

Kabriya: There is no doubt that affordability will be a big issue, especially if consumer confidence continues to fall. And we’re sure to hear criticisms of California, most of which, as you noted, are fair. The cost of housing is very high, homelessness is still unresolved.

But these are also problems of the United States of America, and they require solutions that are too deep for even this economically powerful state to deal with on its own. Future vision will be important rather than past records. What’s the plan?

It can’t even be vague tax credits or student loan forgiveness. We need a concrete vision for an economy that delivers more than just basic needs like housing, but also long-term economic stability (higher wages, good schools, living-wage jobs) that makes the middle class stronger and more accessible.

The Democrat who can deliver this vision while continuing to fight the authoritarian creep currently eating away at our democracy will, in my humble opinion, be the one voters will elect, regardless of their origin story. Ultimately, it was this message of hopeful change that gave us President Obama, another candidate many of us initially considered a long shot.

Mark, are there any 2028 expectations you’re following particularly closely?

Barabak: I’m taking things one step at a time, starting with the 2026 midterms, which include an open seat race for governor in California. Results in November 2026 will go a long way in shaping the dynamic in November 2028. However, the number of Democrats watching the race is also large; too many to list here. Will that number exceed the 29 major Democrats running in 2020? We will see.

I agree with you that to have a chance of winning in 2028, whoever the Democrats nominate must offer some serious, solid ideas about how people can make their lives better financially. Endangered democracy and frightening authoritarianism aside, Still economy, stupid.

Which brings us full circle back to our garrulous governor. He may be winning fans and building a national fundraising base with his pithy jokes and harsh disparages of Trump. But even if he overcomes the entrenched anti-California bias among many voters outside our blessed state, he won’t be able to make his way to the White House.

I’d bet more than a penny on that.