Traders on Kalshi think the Nasdaq-100 will end 2026 above 30,000
Investors trade on the New York Stock Exchange on June 29, 2026.
New York Stock Exchange
Nasdaq-100 It is up about 18% in 2026, but traders on prediction market platform Kalshi do not think the index will move much higher in the second half of 2026.
Speculators are predicting a roughly 50-50 chance that the tech-heavy index will close 2026 above 30,000, the level it first surpassed in late May. As of midday trading on Tuesday, the index was just around 1% below the 30,000 level.
On Kalshi, contracts ask speculators to place “yes” or “no” trades supporting or opposing whether the Nasdaq-100 will end the year within a certain range of points. Contracts will be settled based on index prices as of December 31, provided by Google Finance.
The Nasdaq-100’s big rise in 2026 comes after the US stock market hit Iran war-induced lows on March 30. Between then and June 2, the index of the 100 largest nonfinancial stocks on Nasdaq rose more than 33% on renewed confidence in AI trading.
decreased confidence
However, today traders seem to think that the bull run does not have much strength left.
Another contract shows a 40% chance of the Nasdaq-100 rising above 32,000 in 2026. The intraday high of the year so far was reached on June 3 at 30,762.
Nasdaq – 100 years to date.
Investors say there is only a 27% chance that the Nasdaq-100 will rise above the 33,000 level by the end of the year.
In a report published Tuesday, UBS said it expects the broader market rally to continue into the second half of 2026, with technology likely no longer leading. That could put pressure on the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100, which welcomed SpaceX as its newest member on Tuesday.
“Following a strong rally in semiconductor stocks in the second quarter of this year, investors are increasingly looking beyond technology and into other sectors as they reassess the next phase of AI trading,” wrote Ulrike Hoffmann-Buchardi, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS. “While we remain confident in the AI growth story, we also emphasized that the next leg of equity gains will likely be marked by the expansion of market leadership.”
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.
