Goldman Sachs predicts Spain as favourites to win the World Cup
“Our forecast matches the historical pattern that the World Cup almost always returns to Europe after being won by a South American team,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a note Friday.
Goldman’s statistical model showed Spain had a 26% chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The analysis combined historical match data, team rankings, scoring ability and geographical factors to predict the outcome of the tournament. The model is largely based on Elo ratings, a system originally created for chess that measures team strength based on results and opponent quality.
Spain, which won the 2010 World Cup, currently has the highest Elo rating, ahead of Argentina and France. The Goldman team said their chances were also boosted by “scoring ability.”
Goldman’s model shows France has a 19% chance of becoming three-time champions. Argentina has a 14% chance of becoming back-to-back winners for the first time since Brazil in 1962. Brazil is at 8%, while the UK and the Netherlands are at around 5%.
The model predicts an all-European clash between France and Spain in the semi-finals and a clash between South American giants Argentina and Brazil. Goldman predicts that Spain will beat Argentina in the final to be held in New York on July 19.
Goldman’s model includes data from nearly 20,000 compulsory international matches played since 1978. Recent momentum and mindset factors were also part of the mix.
Goldman’s analysis showed that teams with prolific goalscorers and strong final performances tended to perform better, while reigning World Cup champions often struggled in the next tournament, hurting Argentina’s chances of becoming the defending champions.
England were also downgraded despite their strong Elo ranking, which the report described as historic underperformance at the World Cup and potential geographical disadvantages, including the possibility of playing Mexico in high-altitude Mexico City.
Key matchups predicted include a possible US-Iran match in the round of 32 and a quarter-final between Argentina and Portugal, which could also include the final World Cup match between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.
Goldman said his model is “largely blind” to factors including health. Spain’s young star Lamine Yamal was injured before the matches and it was reported that he would miss the start of the match.
