Tariff refunds begin on Monday. These retailers are due big paydays

US importers, Aim with WalmartMore than $160 billion in tariff refunds are due after the February Supreme Court ruling, with the Trump administration launching a claims filing portal on Monday.

Hopes are high for a smooth launch of the system to facilitate refunds, but companies and Wall Street analysts are tempering their expectations that companies will get the money back quickly.

Trade lawyers warn of bureaucratic hurdles, legal weaknesses, as well as the possibility of a last-minute objection from the Trump administration.

“[Importers] They are pessimistic that the government will make this easier. They anticipate the government will make it as difficult as possible to get their money back,” said business lawyer Matthew Seligman, principal at Grayhawk Law.

“There is disappointment because of the Supreme Court” already reigned “These tariffs are against the law,” he said.

Tariff refund request portal opens on Monday

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is preparing to launch a tariff claims filing portal known as Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries or cloak – On Monday.

Importers can submit a declaration into the system for tariffs they paid under Trump’s now-defunct emergency tariff authority and then expect to receive “a consolidated refund amount,” according to CBP. Program documents show that refund requests must go through multiple verifications.

“The idea is that any importer that is affected and pays the tariffs should use this system, whether it’s Walmart or a local mom-and-pop store down the street… The way he explains it, it sounds a lot more convenient than we expected,” said Stefan Reisinger, a partner at law firm Norton Rose Fulbright.

“There is a fair amount of pessimism in the import community about whether this will actually work as advertised,” he said.

Retailers expect big refunds

Analysts on Wall Street are predicting huge paybacks for premium retailers.

According to Citi’s analysis dated April 10, Walmart $10.2 billion needs to be paid Aim $2.2 billion must be paid and Nike He could get back $1 billion. Also refund is expected Kohl’s 550 million dollars, Openness 400 million dollars and Macy’s The company reached 320 million dollars.

Redemptions likely won’t be included in equity research teams’ forward guidance, but could in principle provide one-off boosts to balance sheets in coming quarters or be used for equity buybacks and debt payments.

“When asked what might be done with the refund proceeds, most management teams said something like this: … ‘If refunds are received, we will consider all options for what to do with the cash. We will consider the needs of the business, share buybacks, paying down debt or increasing our cash cushion on the balance sheet,'” Citi equity researchers wrote in a note.

Walmart CFO John David Rainey said he doesn’t think the refund process will happen quickly.

“It seems very complex and therefore it’s probably not something that’s going to happen very quickly. We’ll certainly take advantage of the opportunity to get a refund, but when that happens, time will tell,” he said at the JPMorgan Retail Round Up on April 8.

If repayments come as expected, they may be reflected in the company’s financial statements.

“From an accounting perspective, it will be recognized in earnings. So it’s a [profit and loss] “Whenever we get that refund, we get the benefit of the P&L,” Rainey said.

But trade lawyers said the refunds could create a legal vulnerability for companies making claims. This is because many companies increase their costs, raising the general level of consumer prices.

Circumcision analysis Harvard Business School’s Pricing Lab found that retail tariff pass-through contributes “approximately 0.76 percentage points to the all-item Consumer Price Index by October 2025.”

“If [companies] What are the chances of getting a refund? [they’re] A lawsuit will be filed against both of them [their] direct or indirect customers?” Reisinger said.

Are additional tariffs on the way?

Administration officials have been combative about reinstating tariff levels through emergency authority as well as other legal channels. being taken into consideration Section 301 tariffsThose used to target “discriminatory” or “unfair” trade practices of U.S. trading partners.

“We had a setback in terms of tariff policy at the Supreme Court, but we will introduce or conduct Section 301 studies so that tariffs can return to the previous level in early July,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at a Wall Street Journal event last week. Bloomberg.

Importers say they are concerned about upcoming Section 301 tariffs.

“We’re really concerned about this,” Eugene Laney, president of the American Association of Exporters and Importers, told CNBC on Thursday. “But even if they make progress on this issue, I do not believe it will reach the level of the European Union. [International Emergency Economic Powers Act] IEEPA tariffs.”

The White House, Treasury Department and U.S. Trade Representative did not respond to CNBC’s questions about further use of Section 301 tariffs.