Tense calm in far north as Israel prepares to ‘finish the job’ against Hezbollah | Israel

Noam Erlich looks out over what used to be a beer garden. Beyond the scattered chairs and tables and the sign instructing neighbors and friends to “pay what you pay,” the ridge drops first into fields, then a fence, then into hills littered with the skeletal remains of shattered Lebanese villages.

The 44-year-old brewer stands in front of the house his grandfather built in the 1940s when the Manara kibbutz was established in Israel’s far north. The building was hit repeatedly by Hezbollah missiles during the conflict that ended a year ago and is now almost certain to collapse, along with most of the neighboring houses.

“Wars destroy everything, but they also bring opportunities,” Erlich said.

There is a bipartisan consensus in Israel this weekend that a new military strike to “finish the job” of destroying Hezbollah’s military capabilities is imminent.

The left-leaning newspaper Haaretz told its readers last week: “instant flash point” While Amit Segal, a journalist close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition government, said a “dramatic escalation against Hezbollah” was “more likely than not,” he added that “it is in Lebanon right now, not Gaza.”

There is a tense calm at the border.

Israel’s air defense systems protected local communities from most of the rocket attacks launched by Hezbollah in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza; but in Israel, 47 civilians and 83 Israeli soldiers were killed, hundreds were injured, and tens of thousands were displaced. Israel’s major offensive in the autumn of last year dealt Hezbollah a series of devastating blows, but also left about 1 person dead. 3,800 people 1.2 million people in Lebanon, including many civilians, were forcibly removed from their homes. Damage was estimated at $8.5bn (£6.5bn).

Like many on the Israeli side of the border, Erlich is optimistic about the future. Although he lost his home and the small brewery that provided his income when he was forced to evacuate Manara, he shifted production to large commercial breweries in central Israel and now sells ten times more.

“The war was a blessing in disguise,” he said.

Many of the Israelis evacuated in the early days of the war have now returned to border communities or are being replaced by others.

Metula, Israel’s northernmost town, was converted into an army base during the war, and 80 percent of the houses were damaged by missiles fired by Hezbollah from positions inside Lebanon, but only hundreds of meters away. The pre-war population was 1,670. Currently the number is 900. “Some won, some lost” in the war, Metula mayor David Azoulay said.

The town’s 130-year-old synagogue is being rebuilt, the road is being repaved and the roof of the town hall is being replaced.

“We didn’t have the money to repair most of the buildings that needed repair before the war… Now we’re going to make this whole town much better than it was before… We can build luxury facilities, cultural opportunities, better healthcare and child care, build a new neighborhood,” Azoulay said.

But whatever new investments are made in some communities on Israel’s northern border, it is clear that there are some former residents who will not return. Children of those with young families are going to school elsewhere in Israel, while others are finding new jobs or enjoying the convenience and attractions of big cities like Tel Aviv, almost 125 miles (200 kilometers) away.

Students renting cheaply in Metula also stayed away, but a new influx emerged: 40 nationalist and religious Israeli families who saw the rebuilding of Metula as a worthy cause.

“Metula will remain secular [but] “We can’t tell them not to come,” Azulai said, “They are Zionists and Jews like us. “I personally have no problem with them.”

The social consequences of the conflict are clearly visible in Kiryat Shmona, the “capital” of the north, where about a quarter of its pre-war population is still missing. In a small shopping mall on the northern outskirts, a third of the shops and restaurants are closed, and those that have reopened are struggling.

“I have to work my ass off to make a living,” said Sergio Helman, who continued to serve hummus and salad at the Blue Bus cafe throughout the war despite the rocket attacks.

But Helman’s children, who were removed during the conflict, have adjusted to life elsewhere in Israel and are in no rush to return.

“Everything is slowly returning to normal, but the war has led to internal conflicts between communities here. There are children going to three schools in two years,” Helman said.

Kiryat Shmona residents have long complained that they are economically disadvantaged and forgotten by national politicians.

“This city is strategically important for Israel. It anchors all our defenses in the north… but it is a ghost town. If people are to return, we need to reassure them that we can stop the enemy from reaching the beds of our children,” said local commentator and lawyer Yamit Malul Yanai.

Like many on Israel’s northern border, Malul Yanai frequently refers to Hamas’ surprise raid on Israel in October 2023, which killed nearly 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 250 hostages, triggering the war in Gaza.

“We need a buffer zone to push the enemy back from our towns, but we are making the same mistakes again,” he said.

From Metula, the de facto border between Israel and Lebanon runs south and then west along forested ridges towards the Mediterranean. This line, known as the “blue line”, is not officially recognized internationally. Since the ceasefire, Israeli forces have maintained five bases in the hills about a mile and a half inside Lebanon and are building high walls. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) said at least one was on Lebanese territory, but Israel denied this accusation.

In Shtula, another Israeli border community evacuated during the war, residents were also slow to return. Lebanon faces a number of damaged houses, many of which have not yet been repaired. The Israeli army immediately built a high concrete barrier to the north and deployed tanks.

A senior Israeli official near the border said: “We are strengthening the border… We want a barrier and an army between civilians and the enemy. We also have cameras, weapons systems and soldiers monitoring.” “We learned a lesson from Gaza. We understand that the wall is part of the system, not the system.” [whole] The system was the mistake in Gaza.”

One of the new Israeli bases in Lebanon is clearly visible from an outpost near Shtula, beyond hillsides cleared of forest by the army during last year’s invasion. Along a strip of dry brown hills, the scattered rubble of collapsed houses in now-deserted villages looks stark white under a clear blue winter sky.

“At discretion [the] “If the Lebanese army is not there, we will have to be there,” said the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Israel has accused Hezbollah of trying to rearm since a US-backed ceasefire last year and has launched more than 1,000 attacks in Lebanon since the 2024 ceasefire, killing hundreds of people. Fresh Israeli air strikes They have hit targets in Southern Lebanon in recent days.

Hezbollah says it is complying with the terms of the ceasefire to withdraw from the border area near Israel and deploy the Lebanese army there. Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qasim, has so far refrained from ordering the movement’s tens of thousands of fighters to take any military action against Israeli attacks.

Some analysts say talk of a new Israeli strike may be designed to increase pressure on the Lebanese army to act more aggressively to disarm Hezbollah, but suggest it could also be aimed at bolstering support for Israel’s right-wing ruling coalition.

Israeli military officials said they were “committed to the ceasefire agreement, but also to the security of Israel.”

Azoulay is not worried about the possibility of a new attack by Hezbollah.

“If it happens, we will handle it,” he said. “All [Lebanese Shia] The villages around us have been destroyed and become almost uninhabitable. “If you ask what our victory is, we have been rebuilding for a year and they have not placed even a single pipe on the ground.”