Texas isn’t just getting bigger, it’s economy is growing faster
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Everything is bigger in Texas; including the economy. And it’s not just because more people are moving there.
If you take out population growth, Texas has thousands of dollars more income per capita than it did three years ago.
This kind of growth is politically important. This signals rising standards of living, a stronger tax base and more leverage to finance infrastructure, education and other priorities without increasing taxes. Texas’ success story gives Republicans a clear case to make to argue that low taxes, light regulations, and strong energy production provide real economic benefits beyond just population loss.
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A horse rider waving an American flag attends the opening of the county fair and rodeo on October 23, 2025. (Jakub Porzycki/Anadolu/Getty Images)
These gains are clearly evident in the data. The Lone Star State saw a 10.1% increase in per capita economic output from 2021 to 2024, according to calculations using Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census figures.
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In dollar terms, Texas increased per capita economic output from roughly $64,000 to nearly $71,000. Even states with much larger economies, including California, did not see the same growth per capita; California had a much more modest increase, from about $80,000 to $84,000.
Looking at growth for residents helps distinguish truly strengthening economies from growing economies. Texas remains firmly in the former camp, debunking the claim that its rise is merely a demographic mirage.
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Governor Greg Abbott laughs as he arrives at the bill signing at the State Capitol on April 23, 2025 in Austin, Texas. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
Even in the fast-growing Sun Belt, Texas outpaces peers like Florida and Arizona, which benefit from immigration but record lower per capita gains.
This distinction carries political weight heading into 2026.
As the midterm election season approaches, per capita gains in Texas residents give Republicans a concrete way to argue that their policy mix delivers stronger growth as Democrats push for a larger federal role.
Everything may be bigger in Texas, but data shows its economy is also strengthening.
