Wednesday briefing: What Europe’s silence over Venezuela says about its fear of Trump | Venezuela
Good morning. The dramatic capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces from Caracas to stand trial in New York sent diplomatic shockwaves around the world. For European leaders, this has posed an uncomfortable dilemma: How to welcome the removal of an authoritarian ruler without endorsing an action that many legal experts say violates international law?
Opposition politicians are of course freer to express their opinions. In the UK, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch said: “In cases where the legal certainty is not yet clear, morally I think this is the right thing to do”, while Liberal Democrat Ed Davey demanded that Keir Starmer condemn what he clearly described as “illegal action in Venezuela”.
This freedom is not always provided to those in power whose calculations are shaped by the real politics of international diplomacy. I spoke with our diplomatic editor for today’s newsletter. Patrick WintourIt’s about how European governments responded to US intervention, and what their careful, often coded language reveals about Europe’s priorities, concerns, and the limits of its influence in dealing with Donald Trump. First, the headlines.
five big stories
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Greenland | Donald Trump and his advisers are exploring “a range of options” for seizing Greenland, and using the US military to do so is “always an option,” the White House said in a statement on Tuesday.
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UK politics | The government needs to find ways to reconnect emotionally with voters, Keir Starmer’s private secretary is said to have warned cabinet ministers at a meeting in which the prime minister said they were in the “fight of our lives”.
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Crans-Montana fire | Authorities in Crans-Montana said the bar at the Swiss ski resort that caught fire on New Year’s Eve, killing 40 mostly young partygoers, had not been inspected by security guards for the last five years.
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Spain | A foundation representing Princess Leonor, the 20-year-old heir to the Spanish throne, has warned that fraudsters are using AI-generated videos of the princess posted by fake profile pages to defraud social media users.
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US politics | Democratic senators said in a letter to the White House that the Trump administration has abandoned efforts to combat child abuse, human trafficking and cartels as it diverts thousands of law enforcement personnel to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
In depth: Why is Europe biting its tongue over Venezuela?
Patrick Wintour told me that the response from Europe felt muted, even evasive, and that it was largely intentional. The implication behind most of the responses, he says, is: “We don’t agree with it, but we won’t say anything about it because there’s no value in doing so because it won’t serve any practical purpose.”
How did European leaders react?
European leaders have generally welcomed the end of Maduro’s rule but have refrained from publicly confirming how it happened. Statements from Brussels, London and Paris emphasized the need for a “peaceful and democratic transition” and repeatedly emphasized the importance of international law, without stating whether they believed the United States had violated it.
Patrick said France had gone the furthest in voicing its concerns and warned that the operation violated the principle of non-use of force, while Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni described the intervention as legitimate.
He says Downing Street is among the most cautious. “The UK’s position was more like: ‘We believe in international law, but we say this largely in the abstract and do not invoke any judgment’.”
WhatWhat’s behind this public reaction?
Patrick says most of the restrictions in Europe are driven by one overriding priority: Ukraine. European governments are determined not to antagonize Trump at a time when his support is still seen as vital to Kiev’s future security guarantees. Officials believe that public criticism will not achieve much in practice, but may risk weakening private influence.
This is especially true in the UK; Here Patrick told me that the government is “absolutely committed to ensuring that America plays an active role in providing security guarantees in the event of a peace agreement. Anything that gets in the way of that by angering Trump will not actually come within the State Department or the Cabinet Office.”
There is also uncertainty about what the United States plans to do next in Venezuela. In removing Maduro, Washington did not dismantle the state or security apparatus in what appeared to be a deliberate attempt to prevent civil war; Patrick says this is inferred from past U.S. military interventions in Iraq and Libya.
He says: “A kind of partial regime change… They captured the leader and decapitated the regime, but left the body still functioning.”
Doesn’t this make European leaders look weak?
Critics argue that such a measure carries its own risks. Emily Thornberry, Labor chair of the foreign affairs select committee, warned that failure to condemn the operation could embolden China and Russia to take similar actions in their spheres of influence. Meanwhile, Health Secretary Wes Streeting described the incident as a “morbid symptom” of the rules-based international order “falling apart before our eyes”.
However, Patrick noted that the UK foreign policy establishment remains extremely reluctant to jeopardize security, intelligence and defense relations with Washington; this relationship is still seen as the cornerstone of Britain’s national security.
This is nothing new for the UK, although Trump’s character has thrown this situation into sharp relief. Every president poses this dilemma, Patrick says: “To what extent do you need to assert yourself to gain respect, or do you need to flatter and hope that will give you a special effect?”
How should Europe address US threats to Greenland?
The real question, according to Patrick, is whether Europe is approaching a real red line. A US move against Greenland, the sovereign territory of NATO member Denmark, would represent something fundamentally different, threatening the alliance itself and forcing a much more united response from Europe.
“Denmark is not Venezuela. There was a democratic election and Greenland chose to be part of Denmark, so it’s not comparable,” says Patrick.
More broadly, Trump’s actions point to a world divided into spheres of influence, where major powers decide outcomes and middle-sized states are pushed aside. He says Europe has to face an uncomfortable truth: “Europe needs to decide for itself whether it wants to be a superpower; if it does, it can’t just be a soft power or a commercial superpower. It has to be a defense superpower.”
What else did we read?
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It’s not easy to be one northerner My colleague Robyn Vinter writes beautifully about why she clings to her identity in areas surrounded by southerners, but in the face of ridicule and open hostility. aamna
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Keith Stuart at our gaming table has a very simple list: 15 The best PS5 games to play I can vouch for Baldur’s Gate 3 and I’m dying to try Clair Obscur: Expedition 33. Martin
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Five years have passed since the attack US Capitol, Guardian US correspondent Sam Levine reports that Donald Trump and other Republicans are trying to rewrite history. aamna
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I stopped collecting obsessively a long time ago physical music environment but the reprinting repackaging industry continues to interest you. Paul Sinclair at SDE It has a highly detailed appearance I’m curious to see what box set fans can expect from the likes of McCartney, Bowie, Prince, Queen and others in 2026. Martin
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of Venezuela gold reserves It is kept in the basement of the Bank of England. The US shock attack and the kidnapping of its leader raises the uncomfortable question: Who owns them now? Richard Partington investigates. aamna
Sport
Football | West Ham are hurtling towards the cruelest of relegations after Morgan Gibbs-White’s late 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest at the half-empty London Stadium.
Cricket | England hit a wall on the third day at the Sydney Cricket Ground with dropped catches and some length bowling; Australia led by 134 runs in the first innings as they batted all day to reach 518 for seven.
Football | Ole Gunnar Solskjær could make a shock return to Manchester United as interim manager, with director of football Jason Wilcox seeing himself as the best candidate for the role.
front pages
“Britain and France signed a ‘coalition’ agreement to send troops to Ukraine after the war” Guard vault. Most talked about story Times “Britain agrees to land in Ukraine” and i paper “Boots on the ground: UK military bases in Ukraine to keep the peace”. F.T. “Venezuela’s oil production faces ‘collapse’ as US naval blockade stifles exports” works with. ‘Changes in drinking to eliminate rural pubs’ are being spearheaded TelegramMeanwhile Mirror It has a “driving to safety” feature and Sun “One for the road.” Mail “The police have the blunder of defying belief.”
In Focus Today
Palestine Action hunger strikers came close to death
The three activists awaiting trial refuse to eat and their health is rapidly deteriorating. Will the government intervene? Haroon Siddique reports.
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
positive side
A bit of good news to remind you that the world isn’t that bad
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These charities offer shared purpose and positivity in the face of extreme violence and harassment, anti-immigrant sentiment, and the rise of what has been described as “1970s-style racism.”
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