The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Tennessee special election results
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Observations on Republican Matt Van Epps defeating Democratic challenger Aftyn Behn in Tuesday’s special election to represent Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District:
It is difficult to flip seats in special elections for House seats.
The party challenging the seat sometimes runs a race. This usually indicates the weakness of the party in power or even the president as the next election approaches.
Democrats came close in several special elections in 2017 but failed to win any of them. There have actually been only four major “turnarounds” in House special elections in the last 18 years.
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Republican Matt Van Epps (left) secured a win over Democratic challenger Aftyn Behn (right) in the hotly contested race for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. (Brett Carlsen/Getty Images (left); George Walker IV/AP Photo (right))
Should Democrats have chosen a moderate choice? Behn was progressive. A centrist might have won such a district based on Abigail Spanberger’s win in the Virginia governor’s race.
Van Epps’ victory could encourage other Republicans to resign.
The House majority will be 220-214, but some Republicans are eager to leave. They may think there’s enough cushion despite Georgia GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s departure in January.
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Moderate Republicans may look at this race and insist the party pivots to health care, seeing a competitive race in a district where the GOP has a plus-20 lead.
Moderate Republicans in California, New York and elsewhere should be worried in the midterm elections, given the strength of Democrats in this race.
Democrats flipped the House in 2018 after coming close in several special elections.
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Van Epps’ victory underscores that gerrymandering/redistricting works.
Republican candidate Matt Van Epps gives a victory speech after winning the special congressional election in Tennessee’s 7th District on December 2, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
Tennessee Republicans pulled former Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper and other Democrats from a Nashville-area district several years ago.
By triangulating Nashville and the suburbs, the GOP diluted the Democratic vote among various GOP districts, which helped the GOP win tonight.
Chad Pergram currently serves as FOX News Channel’s (FNC) Chief Congressional Correspondent. It joined the network in September 2007 and is headquartered in Washington, DC.
