The Mandalorian and Grogu’ box office preview

“Star Wars” returns to the big screen this weekend for the first time in seven years, tracking down a Mandalorian’s jetpack.

Disney’s “Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu” earned $12 million in Thursday night preview sales, the lowest advanced ticket collection in the series’ history, according to data from Comscore. “Solo: A Star Wars Story” was the previous low with $14.1 million in pre-show tickets in 2018.

Box office analysts expect the film, based on Disney+’s popular series “The Mandalorian,” to earn about $80 million in its three-day opening weekend and about $95 million over the four-day Memorial Day holiday weekend. Some less conservative experts estimate that three-day shipping could be $95 million and the holiday weekend could pull in $115 million.

This will be one of the smallest openings for a Star Wars movie in modern cinema history. “Solo” grossed $84.4 million in its opening eight years ago. Since 2015, only “Solo” has opened below $100 million domestically, according to Comscore data.

“The Mandalorian and Grogu” will likely benefit from the popularity of the television show, the long Memorial Day weekend and limited competition from new productions, especially on premium large-format screens.

It will also serve as a stress test for future “Star Wars” theatrical releases amid the lackluster theatrical run of “Star Wars” and Marvel, the tentpole franchises that helped Disney dominate the global box office in the 2010s. The studio will release “Starfighter,” starring Ryan Gosling and directed by Shawn Levy, to hit theaters in 2027.

New “Star Wars” movies haven’t been in theaters since 2019’s “The Rise of Skywalker.” The third film, known as the final film of the Skywalker Saga and the sequel trilogy, grossed more than $1 billion but was met with great backlash from critics and fans. Disney and studio Lucasfilm have paused theatrical productions in an effort to re-establish the franchise on the Disney+ streaming service.

Premiering just a month before “The Rise of Skywalker,” “The Mandalorian” was a huge hit for the company, inspiring a number of live-action Star Wars projects to release a series instead of a theatrical one. These include “Andor,” “Obi-Wan Kenobi,” “Ahsoka,” “Skeleton Crew,” “The Acolyte” and “The Book of Boba Fett.”

Lucasfilm has tapped director Jon Favreau to helm “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” who worked with the studio’s new president Dave Filoni to bring “The Mandalorian” to Disney+. The feature film’s budget was slightly smaller than typical Star Wars films, with production costs estimated to be around $165 million. Production budgets for other “Star Wars” projects released theatrically in the previous decade were as follows: $250 million or moreAccording to data from The Numbers.

This means “The Mandalorian and Grogu” has a smaller profitability threshold than previous games in the series. Of course, marketing expenses are not included in these production budgets.

For parent company Disney, it’s not just about box office numbers. There is a strong consumer product launch tied to the film’s release.

The “Star Wars” franchise has remained a consistently strong seller at retail, even without a theatrical release. So, having new products across various categories and brands can be a huge boon for the company; especially after the character Grogu, also known as “Baby Yoda”, became so popular with fans.

Particularly following the 2015 release of “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” the first of Lucasfilm’s latest “Star Wars” trilogy. hasbro Sales of “Star Wars” merchandise alone reached nearly $500 million.

Not to mention Disney has already made tie-ups at theme park locations, including specials and a revamp of the Smugglers Run ride featuring Grogu.