The Senedd results are disastrous for Labour – but the writing’s been on the wall for months

It didn’t take an aspiring politician insider to realize that Labor was in serious trouble in Wales and had been for a long time.

Nearly half a million of its three million population are estimated to live in “deep poverty”, while the decline in the industrial base means much of the Welsh Valleys face high deprivation, an underperforming education sector and low income levels.

For more than a century, Labor politicians have dominated elections across the country and have held the Senedd since its establishment in 1999. Successive leaders at Westminster have never questioned the support they can count on in Wales until now.

For voters in these particular constituencies, the mood changed from loyalty to anger; Independent He said nothing had changed in decades, with parties such as Reform UK and Plaid Cymru emerging as serious candidates to win back their trust.

After a disastrous campaign, Welsh Labor fell to just nine out of 96 seats in Cardiff Bay; first minister Eluned Morgan even lost her seat in Ceredigion Penfro, further humiliating prime minister Sir Keir Starmer.

The mood among the candidates was somber at the Geraint Thomas Velodrome Center in Newport. A Labor insider said knocking on the door in the local community had been “pretty painful” and despite best efforts “the writing was on the wall for months”.

Labor Party candidate Chris Carter said: Independent: “I think the Prime Minister can hold his head up high. He has led us with great energy against some very, very tough headwinds, nationally and internationally.”

Asked if Sir Keir’s popularity was a problem on the doorstep, he said: “Yes, I think there is the Welsh Labor Party and the UK Labor Party, but we are part of the same Labor family so there are impeachment penalties for both parties.”

Although she refused to call for Sir Keir to stand down, it was clear from her comments earlier this week that Baroness Morgan was placing some of the blame on the doorstep of Downing Street. To talk TelegramHe said the prime minister was “emerging as a problem on the doorstep” when speaking to voters, a view shared by Scottish Labor leader Anas Sarwar.

He took responsibility for his losses in Wales, taking aim at the prime minister and saying: “Nationally we need the Labor government to change course.”

He stood down as leader of the Welsh Labor Party, adding: “It is clear that the results across the UK reveal the deep disappointment with Labour.

“We need to get back to being the party of the working class. Nationally we need a Labor government to change course. We need the wealth of this nation to be more evenly distributed across the South East.”

“But I have always been clear that this election is about Wales and Keir Starmer is not on the ballot paper. I take responsibility and I resign.”

With Labour’s crushing defeat, politics in the Senedd is poised for a shocking change. Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party, with Rhun ap Iorwerth becoming first minister, with Reform UK a close second.

The Welsh nationalist party has been around for 60 years, and although it is generally confined to Welsh-speaking constituencies in West and North Wales, the emergence of Nigel Farage’s party is hugely significant.

Only the media, the candidates and their assistants were present in the large hall, and the lack of fans was noticeable. Although there were initially rumors that Mr Farage would arrive in the afternoon, his plans are believed to have changed when it became clear that Plaid Cymru were ahead.

Although leader Dan Thomas refused to speak to the media until half an hour before the result, the team at the Reform UK table were confident they had done enough to secure at least two seats in Casnewydd Islwyn.

“We all know Labor is over, we all know we have let the people of Wales down after 27 years of failure. We know that much,” Mr Thomas said.

In the last May elections in 2021, the party had existed for only four months and received only one percent of the votes. They currently represent a third of the Senedd and will play an influential role in shaping Welsh policy in the coming years.