Australia warned of dangerous cyclone season as ocean temperatures soar to record highs
Australia’s summer could be shaped by a volatile and dangerous cyclone season; Meteorologists warn that unusually warm ocean temperatures are creating “fuel” for more severe tropical storms.
The 2025-26 hurricane season, which officially begins on November 1, is already showing worrying signs, with sea surface temperatures in northern Australia well above normal, experts say.
Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said sea surface temperatures must be 26.5 degrees or above for all tropical cyclones to form. “Once this threshold is exceeded, the rate of intensification of tropical cyclones generally increases with higher ocean temperatures,” Mr. Domensino said.
In some northern regions, ocean measurements have already exceeded 27°C; Hotspots of up to 31°C were recorded in Queensland Gulf waters and the Upper End of the Northern Territory.
“These temperatures are approximately one to three degrees above average and are in the top 10 percent of historical records for this time of year,” he said.
Meteorologists warn that abnormally warm waters could lead to more intense hurricanes in the coming months, posing a serious threat to millions of Australians living along tropical coastlines.
Tropical systems that will form this summer are expected to turn into category three or higher intensity cyclones with a higher probability than normal.
During a typical season between November and April, approximately nine to 10 tropical cyclones form in the Australian region, with about half of these reaching severe category three or higher strength.
But experts say the rate of busy systems this year may be unusually high.
“Having so much warm water near northern Australia in early November means there is plenty of fuel for tropical cyclone development this season,” Mr Domensino said.
Last season saw 12 hurricanes in Australian waters; this number was the highest in almost two decades.
These included Cyclone Alfred, which hit Queensland and NSW in March, causing almost $2 billion in damage and becoming the fourth costliest hurricane in the country’s history.
With seas already roiling above seasonal averages, communities in northern and eastern Australia need to prepare for a turbulent summer, experts say.
