The Welsh election is a two-horse race – and Labour is nowhere to be seen
A.The mood among delegates, voters and lobbyists at the Plaid Cymru conference in February was ebullient. And for good reason.
Latest polls predict Welsh nationalists are ahead of winning May’s Senedd elections, which could topple almost three decades of Labor rule.
But Plaid is well aware that the real challenge does not come from Labor. Leader Rhun ap Iorweth struck a defiant tone, warning Welsh voters there was a “two-horse race” between his party and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK; This race also targets disillusioned Labor supporters who are ready to break years of tradition and vote for another party.
To talk IndependentMr ap Iorweth said: ‘I think we need to be honest that we are dealing with a global phenomenon here; the growth of the populist right; This is something that is causing difficulties from Trump in America to countries across Europe. It is important to understand that we are not immune to this, and here we see that it is a party called Reform that is leading the growth of the political right.
“I think there is a real threat to the government that we have on many different levels,” he said. “There is a threat to the question of Welsh nationhood and democracy, because although the Reformation today say they accept devolution, we know they have no commitment to devolution. This is the kind of politics that will change on a whim, there is a lack of a program to run there.”
Reform The UK’s stance on devolution was confusing at best. In September, the first Senedd politician said the party was not ruling out canceling the Welsh parliament. Mr Farage later rejected these suggestions but a spokesman later reiterated they would “not rule out anything”.
Plaid Cymru has a very different tone. It has been campaigning on a pro-independence and Welsh nationalist agenda since it was founded in 1925, and Mr ap Iorweth has vowed to push for greater devolution if elected as first minister. In his speech in the conference hall, he called for a reset of the relationship between Cardiff and Westminster, saying he would “oppose Keir Starmer”.
“The fact that Wales may be on the verge of dramatically repudiating Labor after a century or more of domination tells you that something is happening, that something has dropped in the mind in people’s attitudes towards Wales,” he said.
“The difference between having a tartan Cymru first minister is that I’ll be clear about where my loyalty lies – that’s to the people of Wales. I don’t have to keep things in good balance and I don’t have to rock the boat for fear of risking my relationship with my boss in London. I don’t have a boss in London, my boss is the people of Wales. The lack of transparency in the relationship between the prime minister and the Labor prime minister is holding Wales back.”
Plaid Cymru had previously worked with the Welsh Labor government in cooperation agreements across a range of policy areas but withdrew from its most recent partnership in 2024.
The prosecution’s chief expert in the criminal case against Lucy Letby, Dr. Dewi Jones is among those attending the conference and was pleased with the large crowd. He has been campaigning for Plaid Cymru in recent months and has been pleasantly surprised by the positive response.
“We got people repeating the slogan ‘New leadership for Wales’ and that’s when you know the message is getting out,” he said.
Outlining his ambitions for his first 100 days in power, Mr ap Iorweth promised to improve education and health services as well as bring back a Welsh Development Agency to support businesses. Wales is currently the poorest country in the UK; A 2025 report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation states that 22 percent of the population lives in poverty and the cost of living is one of voters’ top concerns.
Although Westminster, not the Senedd, decides immigration policy, it remains a key political battleground for each party. Reform’s Welsh leader Dan Thomas has vowed to end Wales’ Sanctuary Nation status, despite 91 per cent of its funding going to Ukrainian refugees.
“We know people have been led to believe that easy answers to immigration will solve all our problems, but this is based on a policy of disinformation,” Mr ap Iorweth said. “I don’t believe in unlimited open borders, each country controls its own borders, successive UK governments have made a mess in tackling immigration.
“The difference is that Reform is trying to capitalize on that and Plaid Cymru is championing honesty, hope and humanity – that is part of our DNA as a party and has never been more important in our history.”
Fringe events have included talks over immigration in Wales, while clashes with Reform over immigration are believed to have led to Plaid Cymru’s success in the Caerphilly by-election in October.
YouGov’s latest forecasts suggest Labor is heading for disastrous results in Wales, with its vote share falling to just 13 per cent. While that poll suggested Sir Keir’s party was likely to win just 12 seats, More in Common’s MRP poll of 2,500 people in Wales maintained the party’s chances of winning 24 seats.
Either way, they are expected to fall behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK and fall well short of the 49 seats needed for a majority.
Darren Price, a Plaid Cymru councilor in Carmarthenshire, is among those who have been members of the party for decades.
Asked how the mood has changed, he said: “There’s a positive feeling, it’s clear that we’re making progress towards something historic that we’ve been hoping for since the autumn. I also think we’re being careful not to think of this as a done deal.”
“It’s great to see the place busy and there’s a confidence in what we hope to achieve and that’s what comes across.”
Addressing undecided voters, he said: “There is only one party on the ballot paper that has the interests of Wales at its core. Everyone else on the ballot paper is a London party. Devolution is real and if we want devolution to work, we must vote Plaid Cymru.”
