These 4 charts show the scale of Novo Nordisk’s woes

Novo Nordisk It became the first company to produce the GLP-1 drug for weight loss and became the most valuable company in Europe.

But the problems are piling up, and today the stock is trading at just a quarter of its peak less than two years ago.

Pricing pressure, fierce competition and pipeline disruptions have hit the Danish drugmaker in recent months.

Despite being the first to launch the GLP-1 drug for weight loss, Novo’s market share has declined and the company now captures only 40% of the market, while rival Eli Lilly has 60% by most estimates.

Novo is clear about the challenges it faces, especially around pricing. After the company earlier this month pre-released its 2026 forecast and predicted sales would decline, CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC: “People should wait for the decline before they start to rise again.”

He has repeatedly said that new drugs, the Wegovy pill and increased volumes will drive long-term growth.

These charts show the extent of the challenges facing Novo.

Novo Nordisk is often referred to as the pure play of diabetes and obesity. Its portfolio included six brand-name drugs with annual sales of at least $1 billion in 2025, less than current and future rivals.

Eli Lilly It boasts eight blockbuster drugs and its portfolio also includes oncology and gene therapies.

Total sales of Novo’s two largest drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, reached nearly $32 billion last year, or about 67% of total sales. Lilly’s two largest drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, had combined sales of approximately $37 billion, or about 56% of the company’s total sales during the same period.

Novo also sells insulins like blockbuster Tresiba and NovoRapid, as well as some drugs for rare diseases like hemophilia, but none come close to what the GLP-1 drugs do.

Among the major pharmaceutical companies hoping to enter the weight-loss drugs market in the coming years AstraZeneca, Roche, amgenAnd PfizerWith the acquisition of Metsera, the number of blockbuster drugs has increased significantly.

Novo Nordisk has also come under pressure due to falling prices of GLP-1 drugs in the United States, its most important market.

The US accounts for more than half of Novo’s total sales through 2023, and falling prices there are weighing on both the company’s revenue and profitability. Last year, Novo and Lilly reached an agreement with the Trump administration to lower the prices of GLP-1 drugs on Medicare and Medicaid and offer the treatments directly to consumers at a discount.

“In 2026, Novo Nordisk will face pricing headwinds in an increasingly competitive market,” CEO Mike Doustdar said as the company’s full-year earnings report was released earlier this month.

Novo shares have fallen 75% since peaking at just over 1,000 Danish kroner per share in mid-2024.

The stock is up just over 10% over the past five years. This compares with Eli Lilly’s 400% rise and the European #1 index Stoxx 600It gained 55% in the same period.

Investors were last shaken on Monday, when Novo reported disappointing results from a trial comparing next-generation weight-loss drug CallSema with Eli Lilly’s tirzepatidine, also known as Zepbound, and shares tumbled more than 16% that day.

“Confidence in the stock has hit rock bottom,” Jyske Bank analyst Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen said on Tuesday.

Earlier this month, Novo Nordisk said it expected sales and profits to fall between 5% and 13% in 2026. If true, annual sales in local currency would decline for the first time since 2017.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect sales to be about 8% lower in 2026 compared to 2025. Much of this is due to increased competition from pharmacies that sell knockoff versions of both Eli Lilly and Novo brand drugs at lower prices.

In the long term, other large-scale pharmaceutical companies are planning to enter the market and offer more different weight loss drugs to investors in order to secure some market share for themselves.

Novo hopes that CagriSema will increase its future sales, but after recent trial results analysts have become increasingly skeptical of its commercial potential.

Novo said it is optimistic about the drug and that further trials will evaluate the drug’s full weight-loss potential.

The Wegovy pill was another potential growth driver for Novo and had a strong launch. But it remains to be seen how this plays out if Lilly launches its rival pill, which is expected to hit the market in the second quarter, and what effects lower prices might have on volumes.