Iranians in exile say the regime is still killing residents, even during the war
London: We see so much news about the war in the Middle East that it’s easy to miss what’s not covered in the daily news about Iran. This angers Shiva Mahbobi because she is worried about the tyranny of Iranian leaders and what they might do next when they are desperate to retain power.
“People are arrested every day,” he says. “They are still being executed, and if normal people dare to take to the streets to protest, they will be shot to death.” He says that in all news about the war, the media ignores the regime’s repression. “This makes me angry. It’s a completely distorted image of what’s going on in Iran.”
We speak in London, far away from the missiles, but Mahbobi is part of an Iranian society trapped in war. Like others in the diaspora, he hopes to receive messages or phone calls from family and friends in Iran who can tell him what is happening. And like others, he wants this conflict to weaken the regime.
This may be a challenging perspective for those who are completely opposed to airstrikes, but this is a war about Iran and it makes sense to listen to Iran’s voice.
Mahbobi was first arrested when she was 12 for protesting the closure of her school in Kurdistan, where she grew up. He was arrested again when he was 16 and spent three years in prison, where he was tortured. He fled Iran and now lives in London, where he serves as a spokesperson for the Campaign to Free Political Prisoners in Iran.
“You know, as a woman, everything is against you in this regime,” she says. “You are a criminal. You committed a crime as a woman in Iran.”
‘The regime is not just afraid of the USA or Israel. They’re afraid of people taking them down.’
Shiva Mahbobi, human rights activist
I speak to him after contacting a number of Iranians in London to get their views on the war. I have spoken to some who believe that US and Israeli attacks will only bring death and chaos. But I also found many more who wanted to see the end of the Islamic Republic after 47 years of dictatorship. When I went to public protests on both sides of the debate in London on 28 February, I found: The numbers were definitely higher in the pro-war march.
While some TV broadcasts in Iran show people gathering to support the government, Mahbobi says no one can trust this footage. As a result, hundreds of thousands of protesters marched against the regime in January. At least 6,842 people were killed by police and other authorities. According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. Mahbobi believes the death toll is more than 30,000. He says right now no one can gather on the street and say what they really think.
“There is a regime in Iran that acts with fear: It attacks people, arrests people, executes people, even during war,” he says. “I would say 99.9 percent of people want the regime gone. Especially after the protests in January. Given the complexity of Iran, we need to understand that the regime is not just afraid of the United States or Israel. They are also afraid of people overthrowing them.”
Of course, there was no uprising. US President Donald Trump appeared to think the airstrikes would galvanize a popular movement to topple the regime, only to find that the clerics and their enforcers, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, were deeply entrenched. Mahbobi says insufficient attention has been paid to the pressures that make this possible, such as the treatment of political prisoners: “They are left hungry, without food, without clean water, without medicine.”
Will there be regime change? “The public will is there,” he says. However, I do not think that regime change will occur only through attacks by Israel and the United States.” Although many in the Iranian diaspora see the former Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, as the natural leader to replace the ayatollahs, he spent the last 47 years in exile. There is no consensus on how to change the regime.
“In my opinion, Reza Pahlavi has no place in Iran,” says Mahbobi. “We actually have a lot of leaders in prisons who could be part of a government. In my opinion, most of these leaders are in Iran.” On March 16, he spoke to the United Nations human rights committee in Geneva about the need to assist these leaders. He wants Western governments to expel Iranian diplomats and list the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization, as Australia has done.
What worries him is not just the damage the war would inflict on civilians, but also the risk of a deal that would leave the regime in place. This is the Venezuela model, where Trump changed leaders and declared victory. “I believe that if any part of the regime remains, they will take such revenge on people that the situation will only get worse.”
That’s why he’s wary of Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even though he wants to see the Islamic Republic under attack. He worries that U.S. and Israeli leaders may be willing to accept a repressive leader in Tehran if they feel their interests are met.
“Ideally, people will take to the streets and overthrow the regime,” he says. “But the situation is complicated because this is not possible when there is a bombing.” Of course, it is easy for foreign leaders to call for an uprising. The truth is that some Iranians will pay with their lives if they protest.
When I contacted Mahbobi I wasn’t expecting an easy answer and didn’t get one. But this is a war where almost all the conversations are happening outside the country at the heart of the conflict, and that makes it even more important for me to hear from the Iranian people. Even if they have to live far from home.
Get notes directly from our foreign correspondents on events making headlines around the world. Sign up for our weekly What’s on in the World Newsletter.
David Crowe is the European correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect with: X or email.
