Three Months In, Is Trump Losing The Iran War?

WASHINGTON, May 23 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Embers could have won almost any battle against IranianHowever fly months After attacking the Islamic Republic, he now faces a bigger question: Is it him? to lose the war?

With IranianDoubts about this are growing due to its dominance of the Strait of Hormuz, its resistance to nuclear concessions, and the largely intact nature of its theocratic government. Embers He can turn the U.S. military’s tactical successes into an outcome that can be convincingly framed as a geopolitical gain.

His repeated claims of complete victory appear hollow, some analysts say, as both sides alternate between vague diplomacy and repeated threats to resume attacks. IranianRegion-wide retaliation.

Embers The United States and its Arab allies in the Gulf risk emerging from the conflict worse off. IranianAlthough militarily and economically worn out, it could wield greater influence by demonstrating that it can cut a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

The crisis is not over yet and some experts are leaving the possibility open Embers If the negotiations end in his favor, he can still find a way out to save the situation.

But others predict a terrible endwar appearance Embers.

“We fly months inside and looks like something war Designed as a short term romp Embers “It’s turning into a long-term strategic failure,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations.

For EmbersThat’s important, especially given his famous sensitivity to being perceived as a loser, an insult he often hurls at his opponents. inside Iranian Following the crisis, he finds himself commander-in-chief of the world’s most powerful army, facing a second-tier power that believes it has the upper hand.

And this is a dead end, EmbersObama, who has yet to define a clear endgame, is more likely to back down from his maximalist positions or resist any compromise that looks like a repeat of the 2015 Obama-era nuclear deal. Iranian Analysts say he scrapped it in his first term.

“The United States met or exceeded all of our military objectives in ‘Operation Epic Fury,'” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said.

“Minister Embers “He holds all the cards and wisely keeps all options on the table,” he added.

Embers He campaigned for a second term and promised no unnecessary military interventions, but he left the United States in a stalemate that could do lasting damage to its foreign policy record and credibility abroad.

The ongoing standoff comes as he faces domestic pressure over high US gasoline prices and low approval ratings after taking up an unpopular initiative. war Ahead of the midterm elections in November. The Republican Party is struggling to maintain control of Congress.

As a result, some analysts believe the ceasefire is more than six weeks away. Embers It faces a very difficult choice: accept a potentially flawed agreement as a starting point, or risk military escalation and an even longer crisis. If diplomacy collapses, they say, their options will be to launch a sharp but limited offensive, frame it as a final victory, and move on.

Analysts say another possibility is this: Embers He may try to shift the focus to Cuba, as he suggested, in the hopes of changing the subject and potentially scoring an easier win.

If so, he may misjudge the challenges posed by Havana, as some have. Embers aides privately admit that he mistakenly thought so Iranian The operation will be similar to the raid on January 3 that captured the President of Venezuela and led to his replacement.

Even if, Embers not without its defenders.

Alexander Gray, a former senior advisor Embersduring the first term of and is currently the chief executive officer of the American Global Strategies consulting firm, the president’s Iranian The campaign was on the ropes.

‘Heavy blow’ he said IranianIran’s military capabilities were a “strategic success” in themselves; war It brought the Gulf countries closer to the USA and further away from China, and the fate of this situation IranianIts nuclear program had not yet been determined.

But there are signs that: Embersfrustration with his inability to control the narrative. He divided his critics and accused the news media of “treason.”

The conflict lasted twice the maximum duration of six weeks. Embers It was put forward when he started to act together with Israel. war Although the MAGA political base has stood by him ever since warCracks have appeared in the once near-unanimous support of Republican lawmakers.

Initial wave of air strikes diminished rapidly Iranian‘s stockpile of ballistic missiles sank most of its navy and killed many senior leaders.

But Tehran responded by closing the strait and attacking Israel and its Gulf neighbors, which caused energy prices to rise. Embers He then ordered the blockade Iranianbut this also failed to bend Tehran to his will.

Iranian‘s leaders matched EmbersClaims of victory with their own propaganda portraying their campaign as a “crushing defeat” IranianIranian officials overestimated their own military capabilities.

Embers He said his goals for going war would be closed Iranian‘s path to nuclear weapons ends its ability to threaten the region and US interests and makes the US’s job easier. IranianTo overthrow their rulers.

There is no sign that its frequently changing goals are being achieved, and many analysts say it is unlikely to happen.

Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy national intelligence official for the Middle East, said: Iranian When it suffers devastating blows, its rulers see it as a success in surviving the US attack and learning how much control they can have over Gulf shipping.

“What they discovered was that they could use this power and it would have very little consequence for them,” said Panikoff, who now works at the Atlantic Council think tank. Iranian He seemed confident that he could endure more economic pain than he had. Embers And I outlast him.

Embersmain specified war aim – IranianThe goal of denuclearization has also not yet been met, and Tehran has shown little desire to significantly rein in its program.

A stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to have remained buried following US and Israeli airstrikes last June and could be recovered and processed to bomb grade. Iranian He says he wants the United States to recognize the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.

Making things even more complicated, IranianIts supreme leader issued an order that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium could not be sent abroad, two senior officials said. IranianIan officials told Reuters.

Some analysts have suggested that: war can do Iranian Like nuclear-armed North Korea, it is more, not less, likely to step up efforts to develop nuclear weapons to protect itself.

another one Embersdeclared goals – to push Iranian Demands to stop support for armed proxy groups were also not met.

Adding Embers‘s difficulties, now dealing with new ones IranianIranian leaders were much more hard-line than their slain predecessors. mail-warthey are widely expected to have enough missiles and drones to pose a constant danger to their neighbors.

It also faces a further erosion of relations with its traditional European allies, who have mostly rejected calls for help. war They were not consulted on this matter.

China and Russia, meanwhile, have learned lessons about the U.S. military’s shortcomings against asymmetric attacks. IranianAnalysts described Ian’s tactics and how some of his weapons stocks were depleted.

Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, argued that the outcome would be a far more decisive setback for U.S. standing than a humiliating withdrawal from much longer and bloodier conflicts in Vietnam and Afghanistan because those countries are “far from the main theaters of global competition.”

His recent article “Checkmate Iranian” on the Atlantic magazine website.

(Reporting by Matt Spetalnick; Additional reporting by Nathan Layne; Writing by Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Don Durfee and Daniel Wallis)