Time For India To Test Catastrophic Hydrogen Bomb, New Nukes? Why It May Be Right Moment For New Delhi To Validate Its Lethal Power — Explained

Is It Time for India to Test the Hydrogen Bomb? As global nuclear politics heats up again, a new question is echoing through the strategic corridors of New Delhi: Is it time for India to reconsider its thermonuclear ambitions? The debate reignited after former US President Donald Trump renewed his call for the US military to prepare for potential nuclear tests, breaking a three-decade pause since 1992. The move follows reports that Russia has tested Poseidon, a nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable underwater drone, and Trump’s claims that Pakistan is conducting secret nuclear tests.

Although the Kremlin denied that the Poseidon tests were nuclear, the developments disrupted the global nuclear balances and reignited strategic calculations in South Asia.

A Renewed Debate

In India, these events triggered introspection about the country’s self-imposed moratorium on nuclear testing. Since the 1998 Pokhran-II series, India has remained committed to “credible minimum deterrence” under its no-first-use (NFU) nuclear policy. Designed to ensure stability, the doctrine endured decades of regional tensions; But the changing global nuclear order is forcing experts to question whether restrictions still serve India’s long-term security needs.

Professor Happymon Jacob, founder of the Center for Security and Development Studies and editor of India’s World magazine, argued on social media that the US’s stance could present an opportunity for India. “If the US continues nuclear testing, India should seize the opportunity to conduct its own thermonuclear tests, thereby confirming its deterrence and ending any lingering doubts about the success of the 1998 thermonuclear tests,” he said on X (formerly Twitter) on October 31.

The Numbers Behind Deterrence

By 2025, India’s nuclear stockpile stands at around 180 warheads, according to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). By comparison, Pakistan is estimated to have around 170 warheads, and estimates suggest its arsenal could reach 200 by 2028 due to increased production of fissile material.

But China’s arsenal looks much larger; As stated in the US Department of Defense’s 2024 China Military Power Report, it is predicted that there will be approximately 600 nuclear warheads in 2025, and that number could rise to 1,000 by 2030.

Beijing’s deployment of advanced systems such as the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which can carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV), adds further complexity to India’s deterrence posture. The missile’s MIRV capability allows it to hit multiple targets with a single launch, complicating missile defense efforts across Asia.

India declared itself a nuclear weapons state after Pokhran-II, which included the alleged thermonuclear (hydrogen bomb) test in May 1998.

Strategic Dilemma for New Delhi

With two nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan to the west and China to the north, India faces a dual deterrence challenge that few countries in the world face. Analysts suggest that India’s nuclear posture remains fundamentally defensive, but the resumption of global nuclear testing could challenge India.

However, any new test by India will bring diplomatic risks. The country’s voluntary moratorium has been a cornerstone of the country’s responsible nuclear image and has helped it secure important international agreements such as the US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement (2008) and membership in various export control regimes. Violations of the moratorium may attract international criticism or sanctions, especially from Western partners.

But advocates argue that India cannot afford to be left behind technologically if major powers such as the United States and Russia abandon restraint. Renewed tests could allow India to validate its thermonuclear designs, modernize warhead miniaturization for MIRV-capable missiles, and strengthen long-term deterrence reliability.

A Global Race Reignited

As of 2025, nine countries officially have nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. Five of these (the US, Russia, China, France and the UK) have confirmed hydrogen bomb capabilities. India and North Korea’s claims are still disputed.

With nuclear rivalry intensifying among major powers and Asia rapidly becoming the center of strategic rivalry, the coming years will determine whether India maintains its cautious stance or chooses to prove once and for all the true power of the hydrogen bomb.