‘I don’t know anyone who is voting Labour’: How Reform is turning a red heartland light blue
TThere’s an old saying in South Wales: “A one-legged donkey can run for Labor and people here will still vote for him.”
But on a rainy morning in the old mining town of Caerphilly, it’s clear that that saying no longer rings true.
With two days to go before a crucial by-election, there is no doubt Sir Keir Starmer will fight to hold on to this constituency that has been considered a Labor stronghold since 1918.
Polls now show that the ruling party is headed for complete failure; A two-horse race is emerging between Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform party and Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru.
This could see first minister Eluned Morgan lose the effective majority in the Senedd that Labor has held for more than 25 years and raise serious questions about the prime minister’s future, especially with polls suggesting her party could finish third in next year’s Welsh election.
“This is the way the country is going, people are fed up,” said Jeffrey Letbridge Independent. “I am now old enough to experience this situation again and again for years. The Labor Party and the Conservatives have always been pioneers on every issue.
“Times have changed and they haven’t kept up with it. They haven’t done anything for the country. We’re in a terrible situation.”
When the Labor Party candidate knocked on my door, my son shut the door in his face
A 71-year-old local resident’s biggest concerns include immigration and the state of the NHS. From the perspective of his generation, the Welsh government has failed to bring to fruition plans to abolish waiting lists, improve social care and improve the lives of local people.
“I’m going to vote for Nigel Farage because I think he actually has some integrity. I may sound arrogant when I say this, but I think people are becoming more educated in terms of politics and I think people are starting to realize they’re easily manipulated,” he said.
He is not the only one who shares these views. One woman, who wished to remain anonymous, decided to vote for Reform after learning she had a fatal lung disease. A lifelong Labor supporter, he had spent two years on NHS waiting lists and felt let down by the services that were supposed to protect him.
Figures released in July showed NHS treatment waiting lists had now risen to 796,000; This equates to almost one in four Welsh people.
“I have an 18-year-old and two 35-year-olds, they all vote Reform,” he said. “To put it this way, I don’t know anyone who voted Labour. I’ve been a staunch Labor all my life and they lied and lied and lied. It’s not right. When the Labor candidate knocked on my door my son shut the door in his face.”
The presence of reform is keenly felt throughout the city. Many houses leading off the shopping street Cardiff Road were decorated with light blue banners; The Piccadilly bar was also decorated with posters of candidate Llyr Powell.
As Mr. Powell walks down the street carrying a box of campaign papers, a passerby waves and shouts: “Dude, I’m voting for you!”
Spirits are high in the brightly appointed Reform constituency office. A number of people of all ages come to speak to team members and leaflets are handed out reading ‘Stop Labor and Plaid Cymru’s Mass Immigration Agenda’.
This includes ending the Senedd’s ‘Nation of Refuge’ policy, the Welsh government’s initiative to help refugees and asylum seekers find work and integrate themselves into society. Despite making immigration an integral part of their campaign, the 2021 census showed just 2.9 per cent of people in Caerphilly were born outside the UK.
For some of those wandering around town Tuesday morning, immigration isn’t that high on their priority list. Many cite high business rates that are destroying local businesses, long ambulance waiting times, a lack of investment in infrastructure and roads, as well as poor support for mental health services.
While many people hope that Reformation UK can bring change, others remain unsure. “People are fed up, there is a shift,” David Thomas said. “It’s been too long, so much has gone wrong, the management of Caerphilly by the council has been so poor. The money has not been put to good use.”
The 71-year-old has always been an outspoken critic of the council’s financial decisions and has previously voted tactically in an attempt to force Labor out of power. However, he added: “I’m not sure about the Reformation, I can’t get the balance right.
“They are outspoken and their rhetoric is very good, but I doubt whether it will be proven.”
One thing is certain: Labor’s first minister, Eluned Morgan, can no longer rely on the Caerphilly constituency as a safe seat; a recent Survation poll predicts his party will win just 12 percent of the vote.
Meanwhile, it is estimated that Reform UK will get a 42 percent share, while Plaid Cymru will get a 38 percent share. This could herald a drastic change in Wales’ political landscape as voters head to the polls for Senedd elections next May.
The Welsh nationalist party hopes they can now appeal to young and progressive voters, as well as voters who are fearful of Labor and unsure of who to support.
For Lindsay Whittle, representing the people of Caerphilly has been her life’s work since she first took office as a Penrheol ward councilor in 1976. This campaign is also personal for him, as he knew and worked with Hefin David, the Labor politician whose sudden death triggered this by-election.
“The people who first voted for me are long dead, their children and grandchildren are now voting for me. I don’t take anything for granted and I say vote for the person you know you can trust.”
“I’m a man of the people, vote for something you know you can trust. Someone who doesn’t offer the politics of fear and hope, vote for someone who offers hope and love.”
