Traders predict Trump will make major announcements during China trip
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with members of the media on the South Lawn of the White House before boarding Marine One on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 in Washington, DC, USA.
Bonnie Cash | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Prediction market traders think President Donald Trump will make some major statements during his trip to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Traders in Kalshi put the probability of China announcing the purchase of aircraft from the domestic manufacturer at 86% Boeing’s.
That belief is shared with Wall Street, as Boeing’s shares gained nearly 2% ahead of the meeting on Wednesday.
“Speculation is that Trump wants this to be the largest order ever announced, which could mean Boeing committing to purchases in the triple-digit billions,” Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. politics and policy at Wolfe Research, wrote in a note. “Investors will have to wait for clarification from the company on how ‘real’ these figures are and which airframes are involved.”
Investors also place a greater than 81 percent chance that Trump will announce an extension of the U.S.-China tariff truce. In the agreement made in October, China agreed to stop export controls on rare earth elements, while the United States reduced the customs duties on fentanyl applied to the country from 20% to 10%.
Barclays predicted that tariffs could drop a few percentage points if China buys aircraft as well as American oil and soybeans. While Kalshi traders see a 79% chance of a soybean purchase being announced, the probability of oil purchases being announced is much lower at only 24%.
Investors also think there is a 69% chance that the US-China Trade Board will be announced. That’s a key goal of U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Wolfe’s Marcus said. “We suspect this will be done primarily through ongoing purchase commitments, with the Board of Trade obtaining a centralized response from the CCP on what China will purchase from the United States to reduce its bilateral trade surplus,” he wrote.
Trump told reporters as he departed for the trip on Tuesday that he expected to chat with Xi about the Iran war, but also said “I don’t think we need any help on Iran.” Despite this, traders see the probability of talking about Tehran in the bilateral meeting as 61 percent. They also give a 59% chance of mentioning oil or gasoline.
But investors think there’s only a 54% chance he’ll mention AI. Jefferies analyst Edison Lee predicted in a note on Tuesday that the issue would likely attract significant attention, given the backgrounds of executives expected to join Trump’s trip.
“In addition to the debate about the US AI chip/WFE [wafer-fabrication-equipment] “Export restrictions, the presence of Micron’s CEO and Meta’s chairman, China’s ban on Micron’s products on key Chinese infrastructure, and restrictions on Facebook may provide scope for issues to be part of the discussions,” he wrote. “We also view these issues as part of the negotiation process regarding U.S. technology restrictions on China.”
Even though China-US tensions are high these days, traders don’t think that will stop a tight handshake. Investors think the most likely scenario is for Trump and Xi to shake hands for about 8.5 seconds.
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