Treasury Secretary Bessent says U.S. GDP growth can return to 3% before end of the year
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence Wednesday that the U.S. economy can get back on track to 3% growth as the Iran war nears its end.
“We might do something with three in front of it this year,” Bessent said in a live interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “The underlying economy was strong.”
But growth has slowed in the past two quarters as the domestic economy struggles with a number of factors, including a resurgence in inflation, a tepid labor market and the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
After increasing just 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, gross domestic product increased by 1.6% on an annual basis in the first quarter, ending the year with 2.1% growth.
But Bessent reiterated that the “3-3-3” plan is still achievable: 3% growth, a 3% deficit to GDP and a three million barrel per day increase in domestic oil production. He estimated that the economy was operating at a growth rate of about 4% in February, just before the US and Israel attacked Iran.
Regarding his clear target, he said: “I think we may get to a point where it looks like the president will have three points ahead of him by the end of his term. What’s important about that is when you start paying down the total debt as a percentage of the economy.”
The deficit/GDP ratio was at 5.8% at the end of 2025, after remaining above 6% in 2023 and 2024; these were unusually high rates for peacetime, as heavy fiscal spending during the Covid pandemic was spread over subsequent years.
Through the first eight months of fiscal year 2026, the budget deficit stood at $1.25 trillion, 9% lower than the previous year. High financing costs, which constitute the largest budget expenditure after Social Security, were the main factor in this.
Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower benchmark interest rates as a way to ease the debt burden. But the Fed has resisted further interest rate cuts during this year’s rise in inflation.
Bessent said Trump has “every confidence” that new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will direct policy appropriately.
