Trump gives Zelenskyy vague promise of licence to manufacture Patriot missiles | Ukraine
Donald Trump told Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukraine may be allowed to produce Patriot missile interceptors to counter Russian ballistic attacks. This would be a diplomatic coup for Kiev as it tries to counter Moscow’s growing missile threat.
But the US president’s commitment had a vague framework, and he admitted that he had not spoken to US defense and aerospace companies Lockheed Martin and RTX Corporation (formerly Raytheon), which produced the Patriot system. It also remained unclear how quickly production of expensive and complex ammunition could be increased.
Sitting next to the Ukrainian President at the NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye, Trump said: “A little bird told me, the fact that we’re going to give them the right to make Patriots. We’re going to show them how to do it, it’s actually very complicated. But it’s; you’ll understand the complexity quickly.”
He explained: “We’ll license you to make Patriots. That way you can’t complain that we didn’t give them enough.”
However, Trump, who dealt a blow to Ukraine’s air defense capabilities in the short term, stated that the United States could not quickly provide Ukraine with Patriot interceptors from its own stockpiles. “We have patriots, but not that many. We need them for ourselves, too,” Trump said.
There is a global shortage of Patriot fighters as Ukraine’s stockpiles are depleted and Gulf countries catch up with the US-Israeli war against Iran.
These are expensive to produce (about $3 million for a single interceptor), and until recently the US produced no more than 60 per month; this figure has increased recently.
Zelenskyy has been asking for more of these for years and recently asked for a license for Ukraine to produce its own. It is estimated that even at the current rate of increased production, the United States will not be able to replenish its stock for its own use until 2028.
All of this makes it extremely unlikely that Ukraine will deploy domestically produced Patriot interceptors any time soon.
George Beebe, former senior CIA analyst on Russia “The U.S. decision to license Ukraine’s Patriot production… will do little to solve Ukraine’s pressing air defense problems,” said he, who is now director of the grand strategy program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
He added: “But the US and Europe do not have spare missiles. But the conflict with Iran has badly depleted the US and Europe’s stockpiles of these weapons, and the US cannot produce them fast enough to meet Ukraine’s needs.”
“Russia fires nearly 100 ballistic missiles at Ukraine every month, and the speed of these fires is increasing. The US only produces around 50 Patriots each month for itself and all its allies and partners.
“It will take months for Ukraine to build a production facility. However, Russia will attack this facility as soon as the first ground is broken, and to have any hope of completing this construction, Ukraine will need to divert many of its existing Patriot batteries from their current locations to this new facility.
“The United States must recognize that licensing Ukraine is likely to expose Patriot technology to the Russian intelligence collection.”
Perhaps more telling was the tenor of Trump’s bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy during the NATO summit; This meeting was much warmer than some previous encounters and included Trump’s praise for Zelenskyy’s willingness to reach an agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine.
He said Ukraine’s president “did a great job” in the war and was “very effective.”
“We’ve actually developed a good relationship. It’s hard to believe,” Trump said. He added that he believed an agreement to end the war was on the horizon and that the United States would “work on some kind of security package” for Ukraine.
Associated Press contributed to this report
