Trump paints Zelenskyy into a corner with his new plan to end Russia’s war on Ukraine
Trump, who has shown little respect for Zelenskyy since his first term, said Friday that he expected the Ukrainian leader to respond to his administration’s new plan to end the war next Thursday.
“We think there is a way to achieve peace,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “He’ll have to approve it.”
Zelenskyy, grappling with a corruption scandal in his government, disruptions on the battlefield and a difficult looming winter as Russia continues to bomb Ukraine’s energy grid, says Ukraine now faces perhaps the toughest election in its history.Trump and Zelenskyy have a tortured relationship
Zelenskyy has not spoken to Trump since the plan was made public this week, but said he expected to speak with the Republican president in the coming days. It is likely to be another in a series of difficult talks the two leaders have had over the years.
When they first spoke in 2019, Trump tried to pressure the then-newly elected Ukrainian leader to dig up dirt on Joe Biden ahead of the 2020 election. This phone call led to Trump’s first impeachment. Trump made Biden’s support for Ukraine a central issue in his successful 2024 campaign, saying the conflict was costing US taxpayers too much money and promising to quickly end the war. Then, in a disastrous Oval Office meeting earlier this year, Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance ripped Zelenskyy for what they said was insufficient gratitude for the more than $180 billion the United States had allocated for military aid and other assistance to Kiev since the start of the war. This incident led to a temporary suspension of US aid to Ukraine.
And now with the new proposal, Trump is pressuring Zelenskyy to accept a territorial concession to Moscow, a massive reduction in the size of the Ukrainian army, and an agreement from Europe to argue that Ukraine will never be accepted into the NATO military alliance.
“Now Ukraine may find itself facing a very difficult choice: either the loss of its honor or the risk of losing an important partner,” Zelenskyy said in a video speech on Friday. he said.
At the heart of Trump’s plan is his call for Ukraine to hand over the entire eastern Donbas region, although much of this territory remains under Ukraine’s control. Analysts at the Independent Institute for the Study of War estimate that, based on the current rate of advance, it will take several years for the Russian military to completely capture the region.
But Trump insists that the loss of the region, which includes cities that are vital defense, industrial and logistics centers for Ukrainian forces, is a fait accompli.
Asked about pressure on Ukraine to give up the region in an interview with Fox News Radio on Friday, Trump said, “They’re going to lose in a short time. You know that.” “They’re losing land. They’re losing land.”Trump’s patience remains a question mark
Trump’s offer was formally presented to Zelenskyy in Kiev on Thursday by US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll. The plan itself was a surprise to Driscoll’s employees, who until Wednesday were unaware that their boss would travel to Ukraine as part of a team to present the plan to the Ukrainians.
Military officials left the meeting with the impression that Ukrainians viewed the proposal as a starting point that would evolve as negotiations progressed, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive talks.
It’s unclear how much patience Trump has for further negotiations. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that Trump’s new plan reflects “the facts of the situation” and offers “the best win-win scenario in which both sides win more than they have to give.”
When asked about Zelenskyy’s initial hesitant response to the offer, Trump recalled the outburst with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office in February: “You remember, not long ago in the Oval Office, I said, ‘You don’t have the cards.'”Zelenskyy is now in a vulnerable spot
Trump’s escalating pressure comes as Zelenskyy is dealing with kickbacks worth more than $100 million for contracts with the state-owned nuclear energy company. The scandal led to the resignation of senior cabinet ministers and other associates of Zelenskyy were also implicated.
“What Donald Trump is absolutely extremely good at is identifying people’s vulnerabilities,” said Konstantin Sonin, a political economist and Russia expert at the University of Chicago.
One of the 28 articles of Trump’s proposal calls for elections to be held within 100 days of the agreement entering into force.
“I think this is a rational assessment that there is more pressure on Zelenskyy than on Putin,” Sonin said. “Zelenskyy’s back is against the wall” on the US proposal, he added, and “his government could collapse if he accepts”.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is showing increasing signs of tension on the battlefield after years of war against a much larger and better-equipped Russian army. Ukraine is desperately trying to fend off relentless Russian air strikes that have caused power outages across the country that are on the verge of winter.
Kyiv is also grappling with doubts about its path forward. A European plan to finance Ukraine’s budget next year through loans linked to frozen Russian funds is now in question.
Military historian David Silbey from Cornell University said that Trump’s offer in its current form includes various elements that will deeply damage Ukraine’s pride.
One provision calls on Russia and Ukraine to “remove all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education” and that “all Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and banned.” This element can be seen by the Ukrainian side as credible for Putin to publish distorted historical narratives to legitimize the 2022 invasion.
Putin said the war was partly an effort to “de-Nazi” Ukraine and complained about the country’s “neo-Nazi regime” as justification for Russia’s invasion. In fact, in Ukraine’s last parliamentary elections in 2019, support for far-right candidates was significantly lower than in many other European countries, at 2%.
Silbey said the plan’s provision was “very clearly an attempt to strengthen Putin’s claim to Russian cultural identity in Ukraine.” “From the loss of territory to the significant reduction of the Ukrainian military to the cultural concessions requested, I don’t think Zelenskyy can make this deal and look his people in the eye again.”
