Trump trade deal energy export wins at odds with tanker ship reality

The Trump administration fulfills the commitments of foreign nations for future major US energy purchases as part of the frameworks of the latest trade agreement, including the EU, Indonesia and South Korea, but the authority to encourage domestic shipbuilding from the US Trade Representative may be on its way to transform such natural gas ships into reality.

The Ustr policy requires that 1% of the USA should be transported on US -flag ships from April 2028, and 1% later needs to be moved to ships made by the USA. The next annual 1% increases will reach a total of 15% that should be on the US -built ships until 2047.

“Poten & Partners, a company specialized in energy market analysis and consultancy, especially in the LNG sector, Jason Feer, President of Global Business Intelligence, said,” The need to move the country’s LNG and crude oil is problematic. “

The US government’s new shipbuilding policy was carried out as a part of an investigation into China’s dominance in the shipbuilding industry of the US government as part of the wider national security concerns (Biden administration was also following the issue and issued a report in January 2025). China produces 75% of the global load fleets. In April, Trump announced the new Ustr policy of reconstructing America’s shipbuilding industry.

Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Senator Todd Young (R-in), Representative John Garamendi (D-Ca-8) and Representative Trent Kelly (R-MS-1) Shipbuilding and Port Infrastructure for Welfare and Security for America (Ships) To close the gap through international builders through a series of programs.

There is only one US flag LNG ship, Crowley’s American energy was built in France in 1994 and started to serve LNG from the US Gulf Coast to Porto Rico in March 2025. This is a Jones law ship, that is, the 1920 Naval Commercial Law, which includes posts between the US ports, must be registered in the United States to be appointed by a US captain and crew and registered in the USA.

According to Poten & Partners, the number of LNG carriers working globally is 682. Only one of these ships, LNG Aquarius, was built by the United States. LNG Aquarius was ordered on July 1, 1974 and delivered by General Dynamics on 7 June 1977. The ship is currently sailing under the Marinetraffic ship information under the Indonesian flag.

Until 2047, Poten & Partner estimates that it will need 45 ships to carry 15% of the LNG required by the Ustr guidelines of USA. Currently, a total of 331 planned ship in global order books is only a US ship, he said. He added that the number of LNG ships in the order books to support the US energy expansion expansion on paper “looks good”. However, in accordance with the new Ustr directives, these ships will not be suitable.

Hanwha Shipping, a US subsidiary of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, is building a local -liquefied natural gas carrier through its subsidiary Hanwha Philly Shipyard. This ship will be the first LNG carrier in the export market, which is organized by the US in almost 50 years. A second possible LNG ship can also be ordered.

Based on LNG shipbuilding history, it takes about two and a half years to build a LNG ship.

“Globally, you can build a large number of ships to support an expansion, but the problem is that it should be built in a US shipyard, and the US has not built a commercial ocean ship for decades for decades.” He said. “At that time, we lost a lot of shipbuilding capacity and used for the gardens, Jones domestic ships and navy building.”

Feer, another obstacle, restrictions on hiring talented workmanship. “There are not enough craft workers – Pipeforce, carpenter, welders. It will be a great challenge to try to build all of this above a certain date.” He said.

Costs associated with this talented labor force will also be a factor. According to industry estimates, building a LNG ship costs about 260 million dollars. A US ship can be about two to four times more expensive.

Feer says that there should be more clarity about what constitutes a US ship in Ustr authority.

“The majority of the ship can be produced abroad and can be completed in the USA? Is a US -made engine? Avoid LNG ships made by Hanwha will be held in Korea and will it end here? He said.

Former Federal Maritime Commission Commissioner Louis Sola, who was appointed by President Trump, says that mathematics does not work to CNBC, the partner of the lobby company Thorn Run Partners.

“Everyone asks the question is simple, dedi he said. “Can the United States actually build fast enough without hitting ourselves within the scope of the LNG carrier ships law? We need up to 50 ships until 2050. Korean and Japanese gardens take more than two years per ship and we have a solid reservation and we do not build this class here,” he added.

Ustr did not respond to the request for comments.

“Without some common sense of flexibility or a gradual approach, mathematics does not gather. When our allies need American energy the most, we face the risk of bottling our LNG exports and opening the market for competition.” He said.

According to BIMCO, the largest association for global ship owners, US exports include 27.5% and 9.5% of its demand for global LNG and raw tankers, respectively. The US uses South Korean LNG ships mainly to carry commodities.

In general, 78% of the LNG fleet were built in South Korea, while 13% and 7% from Japan and China, respectively, according to BIMCO. South Korean shipyards also dominate the order book and 64% of the capacity is ordering, but Chinese shipyards are getting more and more orders and now they have a 32% capacity.

Replacing ships, ustr authority waiver

BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen says that a potential temporary solution is currently foreign -built ships that can be reflected under certain conditions.

These ships must belong to US citizens or organizations and are entitled to one of the following programs: Maritime Security Program, Cable Security Fleet, Tanker Security Fleet, Volunteer Intermodal Sealift contract or ready reserve fleet. Rasmussen said, “The Ships Law will allow foreign production ships to be reflected in order to include the new strategic commercial fleet program (SCFP) for seven years,” Rasmussen said.

As the US and flag ships become available, 250 ships will replace foreign production ships in the SCFP fleet. However, the foreign -built LNG tankers in the SCFP fleet would not satisfy the Ustr LNG exports and require a waiver to export LNG.

According to transport consultant Clarkson’s, 2025 LNG will see a record delivery of ships.

In addition to South Korea’s leading position in ship orders, the Swiss naval engine company WingD has the most popular engine and is a French engineering company Gaztransport & Technigas, specialized in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other cryogenic gases, is a dominant protection system used in new vessels.

According to energy experts, the US may have to return to the provision of waiver under the authority of Ustr.

Lipow Oil Assocates President Andrew Lipow said that the waiver provision would increase the cost of ship components by 25%if used, but it could be the best option for a unreasonable delay in the shipyard.

Lipow said if there is not enough LNG ship, if there is no situation that can affect LNG production and raw production, the use of waiver should be taken into consideration.

“Oil wells also produce natural gas associated with it, so that this can affect US oil production.” He said. “The administration will not want to put the country into a situation that needs to be closed.

Lipow said that the use of waiver was previously seen on the Jones law ships, so that a foreign -flagged ship could carry US gasoline to two US harbors. “There is a precedent to reduce procurement cuts from foreign flag ships,” he said.