trump: Trump’s threats to Europe put its leaders in a double bind over Iran
However impulsive his outburst was, it pointed to a deeper truth: Trump has left European leaders in a kind of double bind.
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Iran’s virtual closure of the strategic waterway has led to a full-blown energy crisis across the continent. As rapidly rising oil and gas prices across Europe anger voters, pressure is mounting on leaders to take stronger action to reopen shipping lanes.
But at the same time, Europe’s political winds are blowing harder than ever against the war, increasing the chances of leaders joining the fight. The military action is seen as wrong by many Europeans, especially the left, who say it is unnecessary, illegal and now threatens Europe’s fragile growth. Leaders also have lasting regrets about the Iraq War, which Britain supported.
“We are as divided as ever,” said Gérard Araud, former French ambassador to Israel and the United States. “The Europeans are showing their weakness on various levels. We are in complete shock at what is happening.”
War is already turning politics upside down. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni lost a referendum to overhaul the judicial system, which left him at a political disadvantage. His perception that he was close to Trump, who was very unpopular in Italy, didn’t help either, especially when he didn’t bother to call Trump before the war. In France, the far-left party France Unbowed, which opposes Middle East intervention, made gains in the mayoral elections held last week. This was despite the party being mired in controversy, including the arrest of two party aides following the murder of a right-wing activist. Analysts said the party benefited from the votes of Muslims angry at the war.
Yet despite all the political dangers, Europe has compelling reasons to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz does not remain closed for long. The price of a liter of gasoline in Germany has exceeded 2 euros, which is equivalent to $9.48 per gallon. This forced Germany and other countries into costly tax cuts and price ceilings to cushion the shock.
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“The Europeans have every interest in opening the strait to tankers and other trade and showing the smaller Gulf states that they are reliable allies,” said Peter Westmacott, the former British ambassador to France and the United States. “So, after making sure they are being defensive rather than aggressive, those who can are looking for ways to help.”
Despite all of Trump’s pressure on Europe, he did not make it easy for its leaders to support him. The United States did not consult its allies about the joint U.S.-Israeli operation, and in many cases did not even notify them. The lack of cooperation follows a troubled period in which Trump escalated his threats to seize Greenland and his support for Ukraine zigzagged.
Trump has since insulted European leaders, especially British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has worked assiduously to improve him. “Winston is no Churchill,” Starmer said, before airing a sarcastic British television sketch showing the Prime Minister shivering before a phone call with the president.
R. Nicholas Burns, who served as the U.S. ambassador to NATO during the Iraq War, said Trump’s abusive comments about the British prime minister were “the latest in a series of hostile gestures by European leaders that would make it politically untenable for European leaders to participate in military operations.”
“All of this has contributed to the political problems that European countries have, and these are all democracies,” Burns said.
Even when he called on Europeans to step up, Trump managed to belittle them. He said the United States doesn’t actually need military assets. Diplomats and military officials say this makes clear its true purpose: to force Europe to assume the political risk of participating in military action.
While Europe could contribute to a military operation in the strait — by deploying minesweepers or other warships to escort tankers, for example — analysts say Europe’s military assets are secondary to the value of having its political support for a broader campaign.
“There are realities where it would be appropriate to have more ships,” said retired French general and former NATO planner Michel Yakovleff. “But that’s not Trump’s line. If Trump had been open to saying, ‘Frankly, given the magnitude of the problem, we’d like to have more,’ then the calculus might be different.”
But since Trump has rejected the value of Europe’s military contribution, “that means it’s political,” Yakovleff said.
He said European leaders were right not to give Trump political cover because he had not yet clarified his strategic goals or prepared an exit ramp for war. On Monday, the president said “very good” talks were underway to end hostilities, a claim that Iranian officials quickly disputed.
To form a coalition for the Strait, Trump must reach an agreement with members on the scope of the operation, what each will contribute, the chain of command and the rules of engagement, Yakovleff said. He said such a process would take at least two months.
Last week, European leaders, joined by many from Asia and the Persian Gulf, lowered their resistance to participating in such an operation. However, their statements were not very straightforward: “We express our readiness to contribute to the necessary efforts to ensure safe passage through the Bosphorus.” It was said.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been working behind the scenes to get permission from the United Nations to keep the strait open after the conflict. European Union officials have floated the idea of expanding the powers of other marine protection missions in the region.
Araud said Europe could play a more meaningful role diplomatically in ending the dispute, given its history of negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program.
But he said Europe was hampered by three interconnected factors: Trump’s distrust of Europe, especially after his refusal to support the war; Europe’s fear that turning on the president could lead to punishing Ukraine; and Iran’s suspicion of Europe due to its reluctance to confront it more openly.
“We can play the role of intermediary, but Trump prefers Pakistanis,” said Araud, adding, “The Iranians do not trust us either; they think we are in the pocket of the Americans.”
This article was first published in The New York Times.
