Trump sends more troops to Iran — but it may backfire, analysts say
WASHINGTON DC, UNITED STATES – MARCH 20: United States President Donald Trump (R) speaks to the press before leaving the White House for Miami, Florida on March 20, 2026 in Washington DC.
Celal Güneş | Anatolia | Getty Images
Almost a month before the Iran war, the USA is preparing to send troops to Iran. thousands of additional soldiers Expanding its already military footprint in the Middle East tens of thousands of American personnel in the region.
But the escalation points to something more than preparation for a ground attack, according to analysts, who argue it is an exercise in coercive diplomacy designed to increase influence as President Donald Trump ratchets up pressure on Iran to come to the negotiating table.
“President Trump is essentially saying that either you, the Iranians, can reach a deal or face potentially more severe consequences down the road,” Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at the RAND school of public policy, told CNBC via email. The military build-up gives the president the option not only to attack, but also to negotiate with force, Cohen said.
Washington and Tehran have struggled to find a way to open negotiations on peace terms; While each side insists it has the upper hand in the conflict, it portrays the other as more helpless.
The United States has presented to the public a 15-point peace plan that would mean a complete end to Iran’s nuclear program and demands sharp sanctions. Limitations on range and size of missile arsenal – Similar to those suggested in February, before talks broke down and led to a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran.
The Iranian government has announced that it will not end the conflict unless Washington pays war reparations and recognizes Tehran’s “exercise of sovereignty” over the Strait of Hormuz. In the early hours of Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said: There were no negotiations between Tehran and Washington.
Pakistan has offered to facilitate peace talks to ensure a “comprehensive solution” to the ongoing war. However, neither Washington nor Tehran confirmed such discussions.
At the same time, the US placed an order on Tuesday. to send thousands more soldiers From the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to the area where it could be rapidly deployed for possible additional military action. Capture the Kharg Island oil port or reopening the strait in case negotiations are disrupted.
Analysts say these powers could give the president more leverage in negotiations, but they also risk fueling Tehran’s resentment and prompting a harsher response.
“Diplomacy is almost always backed by force,” Iranian American historian Arash Azizi said in an email to CNBC, adding that under Trump it has been done “in a more open and cruder way.”
The administration has been quite inconsistent in its messages towards Trump reportedly Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he wanted the war to end as soon as possible. The warrior continued his warnings“We also see ourselves as a part of this negotiation. We are negotiating with bombs.”
Military conflicts in the region continued to spiral. iranian army He reportedly said in a statement early Thursday that he had carried out attacks on satellite stations in Israel as well as Middle Eastern bases hosting US troops.
Demand is too far apart
Analysts say the gap between the demands of the United States and Iran remains wide, and even if both sides manage to find common ground, Israel is also a wild card.
Israel has yet to comment publicly on peace conditions during the latest war of words. reports stating The Israeli government was caught off guard by Washington’s proposal. CNBC was unable to verify the claim.
FILE PHOTO: Iran’s new religious leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the late Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attends a rally in Tehran, Iran, on May 31, 2019.
Hamid Forootan | via Reuters
Iranian officials have signaled that they will likely reject US terms and have drawn up their own list of conditions for ending the war, including Tehran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.
That may not be the starting point for the United States, as Trump on Monday raised the possibility that the strait could be jointly controlled by “me and the Ayatollah.” The US’s demand for restrictions on Iran’s missile program may also be a red line for Tehran.
“How long the conflict lasts will depend on how long it takes for the two sides to reach common ground,” Cohen said.
‘Very difficult’ task
Military reinforcements give Trump more options, but analysts say these reinforcements may not be enough against an enemy that has been preparing for this fight for a long time.
Daniel Davis, a senior fellow and military expert at the policy think tank Defense Priorities, said actual U.S. ground combat force might be enough to briefly capture a small, lightly defended target. But he said it would not be enough to continue the operation against a country that has spent years strengthening its underground missile cities, dispersing its forces and preparing for exactly this scenario.
“According to me [the reinforcement] Davis said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday that the chances of success are very low and the chances of loss of life are very high. Davis retired from the U.S. Army after 21 years of active service.
Deploying elite units such as the 82nd Airborne Division could provide rapid response capability in the field, but would not be sustainable without intense military follow-up, Davis said.
US military planning on Iran so far also reflects some miscalculations by Trump, according to the retired military veteran.
Management may have gained confidence from successful results. The operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January bore little resemblance to the Caracas raid, Davis said, but Iran’s geography, military capacity and strategic depth bore little resemblance to the Caracas raid.
Unlike Venezuela, Iran is an adversary “capable of fighting back” with well-trained proxies in the region and control of the choke point through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil flows, Davis said. “This is a much more difficult task than in Venezuela,” he added.
‘Fight forever’
But even a controlled solution to the Iran war could leave lasting scars on the world economy and geopolitical landscape, according to Ben Emons, founder of investment management firm FedWatch Advisors.
The ripple effects of the outage on LNG, helium, sulfur and fertilizer supply chains could last up to 18 months, Emons told CNBC via email. Food inflation will likely remain high and will have political repercussions in many countries. The United States is also involved, Emons said.
If the Strait of Hormuz continues to operate at pre-war levels, the oil supply shock, which is already in short supply, could continue in the second half of this year, Emons said.
The path to a ceasefire appeared extremely uncertain, and there was little visibility into whether or when talks between the United States and Iran would begin.
“There’s likely to be some sort of pause in the next few weeks [but] The real question is what comes after this pause,” Azizi said. “Changes of power in Iran could allow for a permanent agreement, or at least a permanent non-war. “We may also enter a war of attrition that could turn into another ‘endless war’,” he said.
