Trump veers toward exit in Iran war but risks loom
More than three months after attacking the Islamic Republic, Trump on Sunday approved a “memorandum of understanding” that marks the most significant breakthrough yet in peace talks, including Iran’s pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which could help reduce high gasoline prices in the United States. At the same time, the agreement brokered by Pakistan, the text of which was not immediately disclosed, apparently calls for significant concessions to the United States, including a postponement of discussions on ending Iran’s nuclear program, Trump’s stated main war goal.
Also read: US, Iran reach agreement to end war, Trump says Strait of Hormuz will be opened on Friday
Trump’s search for an exit plan has intensified amid mounting pressure to end a war that has left thousands dead, caused economic distress at home and sent his approval ratings plummeting just months before U.S. midterm elections in November. The Republican Party is struggling to maintain control of Congress.
But before Sunday’s announcement, his efforts had faced pushback from Iran hawks in Washington, who warned against making too many concessions to Tehran.
“The agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations everyone!” Trump said in his social media post on his 80th birthday: Shortly after, Iran approved the agreement, which was expected to be signed on Friday but will leave many critical questions unanswered.
The two sides are offering sometimes conflicting interpretations of the framework, which is meant to extend the current ceasefire for 60 days to allow detailed talks to permanently end a war that has created an unprecedented global energy supply shock. Analysts say Trump also faces the possibility that the United States will appear weakened, while Iran, though militarily and economically worn down, could wield greater influence.
While there is little doubt that U.S. and Israeli strikes have greatly disrupted Iran’s military capabilities, Tehran has shown it can survive an attack while shrinking one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies.
The White House did not respond to Reuters’ questions regarding this news.
SOME OF TRUMP’S GOALS WERE NOT ACHIEVED
Trump, who campaigned for a second term with the promise of avoiding foreign interventions and focusing on Americans’ economic concerns, framed the result as a major US victory, despite Iran making similar claims.
Still, most analysts agree that Trump, who once demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” has been thwarted in many of his frequently shifting goals for the war.
The theocratic Iranian government that Trump urged the Iranians to overthrow at the beginning of the conflict remains largely intact, and the leaders who replaced those killed in joint US-Israeli strikes appear even tougher. Previous demands for Iran to halt its ballistic missile program and halt its support for regional proxies were also not met. Still, a U.S. official told reporters that the preliminary agreement achieved Trump’s key goals.
Moreover, the Memorandum of Understanding does not fully resolve the fate of Iran’s near-bomb uranium stockpile.
Trump said in a social media post on Saturday that the United States would go in, take the material and “dismantle it and destroy it,” but gave no timetable. An Iranian official said Iran had agreed to “dilute” the stockpiles on its own, but no mechanism had yet been determined.
“This agreement is probably the best possible outcome for preventing further conflict, but it is no better than what could have been achieved if the United States had pursued diplomacy rather than war in the first place,” said Victoria Taylor, a former assistant secretary of state now at the Atlantic Council think tank.
It is also unclear whether the final agreement will be an improvement on the deal former President Barack Obama reached with Iran in 2015 to rein in Iran’s nuclear program, which Trump canceled in his first term in 2018.
US officials have insisted that the release of billions of dollars in Iranian funds or the relief of sanctions will occur gradually and “depending on whether Tehran meets the requirements.” Iran has signaled in advance that it expects some money and sanctions relief.
By opening the door to such moves, Trump could face the same accusations he has long leveled against Obama for providing Iran with a financial lifeline to help meet its nuclear ambitions and other security threats.
THE IRANIAN THREAT WILL CONTINUE
Trump and his aides have touted Iran’s pledge to never obtain nuclear weapons as a major success.
Also read: Trump warns US could continue attacks on Iran if nuclear deal is not reached: Report
However, Tehran has declared for years that it will always comply with the Islamic edict banning the development of bombs issued by former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an airstrike at the beginning of the war.
Although the Memorandum of Understanding called for Iran to quickly lift restrictions on shipping in the strait and lift the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, Tehran insisted that it should maintain a role it did not have before the war in managing the strategic waterway.
Reopening the strait would only mean a return to the status quo before the conflict. “Iran has shown that it can close the Strait of Hormuz at will, even in an extremely weakened situation. This is not going anywhere,” said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.
The war launched by Trump has killed thousands of people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, where conflicts between Israel and Iran-linked Hezbollah militants have reignited. It is also stated that 13 US soldiers lost their lives in the clashes.
The US military’s price tag is in the tens of billions of dollars, and ammunition stocks are dwindling. There are also deepening tensions between the US and European allies, who were not consulted before Trump went to war. Another challenge for Trump is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who formed a close wartime alliance with him but said his country would not be a party to the Memorandum of Understanding. The two leaders clashed on Sunday over Israel’s ongoing military operation in Lebanon.
Washington’s Gulf allies, the target of Iran’s missile and drone strikes, have pressed for a peaceful solution but will now face the prospect of a wounded neighbor who could still threaten them with its remaining arsenal.
