Trump’s attack on Iran pushed diplomacy with Kim Jong Un further out of reach

Seoul – Since its second period of this year, President Trump spoke optimistic about the restarting of Nuclear weapons with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which he met for a series of historical summits that ended from the agreement in 2018 and 2019.

“I have a great relationship with Kim Jong Un, and we’ll see what’s going to happen, but it’s definitely a nuclear force,” he said to journalists at the Oval office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in March.

According to Seoul -based NK News, at the beginning of this month, he tried to send a letter to Kim through his diplomats in New York. And now, following the US army’s strike on Sunday to three nuclear facilities in Iran, Pyongyang’s chance of going back to the bargaining table was even more weak.

For North Korea, which has carried out six nuclear tests in the face of serious economic sanctions and international reprobility for years, has a much more advanced nuclear program than Iran, many analysts say that the course is open on Sunday: a working nuclear deterrence is the only security guarantee.

Kim Dong-Yup, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said, rather than anything, the North Korean regime thinks they are good to dig their heels to continue to develop their nuclear programs, ”he said.

“I think this strike means the end of the US purification negotiations or diplomatic solutions in the past,” he said. “I don’t think this is just a matter of worsening condition, I think probability is now close to zero.”

According to the North Korean state media, the North Korea’s Foreign Ministry condemned the US strike to Iran as a violation of international law and the “territorial integrity and security interests of a sovereign state”.

“The current situation of the Middle East, which has shook the basis of international peace and security, is the inevitable product of Israel’s reckless bravados, which is tolerated and encouraged by Israel, the Western -style free order that Israel has tolerated and encouraged so far, so far,”.

Trump previously threatened to attack North Korea.

At the beginning of the early period of Trump, when Pyongyang successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the western coast of the United States, the administrative officials reportedly thought to initiate a “bloody nose” strike-a small-to-area attack attack to prevent the rise to full war, but to some point, but to some point.

In August 2017, Trump wrote on social media, “Military solutions are now completely on -site, locked and loaded, if North Korea moves unfair,” he wrote.

Although Iran is still unclear how much damage to the nuclear places in Natanz, Isfahan and Fordo – and as the US officials claim, they say that the feasibility of an attack similar to North Korea is much smaller.

“North Korea has been going on with its nuclear programs for a while, so the security stances around its nuclear facilities are much more sophisticated than Iran, Kim said Kim Dong-YUP. “The facilities are extremely messy and hidden, which is difficult to disable nuclear programs, even if you are going to successfully destroy one or two sites known.”

Kim Dong-YUP believes that North Korea’s enrichment facilities are much deeper than Iran and potentially beyond the “Bunker Buster” bombs known as the GBU-57 A/B used on Sunday. Unlike Iran, North Korea is already believed to have a headlines of 40 to 50 nuclear war, which makes large -scale retaliation a real possibility.

A preventive strike against North Korea would also cause irreparable damage to the US-South Korean alliance, and probably invite response from China and more importantly Russia.

The mutual defense treaty signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un last June states that the two countries will “immediately provide military and other assistance in the event of a war of war due to an armed invasion from one individual or more than one state”.

Nevertheless, he talked about such an attack in the early period of Trump, and took his place as a friendship with Kim Jong Fun, which was built on the 2018-19 summits, the first meetings of the US President. Although negotiations were disintegrated on the disagreements of North Korea’s disarmament and the reluctance of Trump to present the help of sanctions, the summits ended with a surprisingly hopeful note, and the two leading pencil friends were distant.

A undated photo provided by the North Korean government on September 13, Kim Jong Un, the leader of the country, shows that it is a facility for nuclear materials in North Korea.

(Associated Press)

In recent months, the administrative officials said that the President’s purpose remained the same: North Korea completely nuclear arming.

However, the attack on Iran, the US negotiation team’s request to present a full list of North Korea’s nuclear areas, such as the old adhesion points-a serialma expert serving under laborious-two South Korean administration.

“Kim Jong Un will give up when the expression of Hell freezes only in English, Kim Kim Jong Un will give up. “And this alone, any possible agreement is closing the door.”

Nevertheless, Lee believes that North Korea’s nuclear program is not a return to the negotiation table for an ice cream, even if it is not the return.

“But from Trump’s point of view, this [2019] Hanoi Summit, ”he said. He seemed to be a fool to return to sign a reduced agreement. “

Some, like Professor Kim Dong-Yup, states that North Korea can already withstand economic sanctions and will not expand itself too much to lift them, and others are still a source of leverage of the United States, and if Trump wants an agreement, he should put it in the painting.

Stephen Costello, a man who is not resident at the Statecraft Institute, a Washington -based thinking tank, said, “The help of real sanctions is still valuable”.

Immediately accepting that purification of nuclear weapons may not be realistic, Costello argued that even stopping the production of new fissil materials, nuclear weapons and long -range missiles was to terminate non -military sanctions such as energy imports or textiles and seafood.

“Regardless of the US protests in the Middle East, North Koreans will measure the US interest in early and how serious they are in terms of relief of emergency sanctions,” he said.

The attack on Iran will get other results beyond Trump’s dealing with Kim Jong flour.

Military cooperation between North Korea and Iran will probably accelerate from the 1980s, including arms transfers from North Korea to Iran.

Lee, out-of-soliferation, said that the attack on Iran, the first real world of US Bunker-Budget bombs, could be a blessing for North Korea.

“It will be an enormous lesson for them,” he said. “Depending on the total damage carried out, North Korea will undoubtedly use this information to better hide its own nuclear facilities.”