Trump’s iron grip on the Republican party has never been stronger. What about the country? | US midterm elections 2026
Donald Trump gave it a minute.
At 9:01 p.m., it was confirmed that Texas attorney general Ken Paxton (a hardliner backed by the US president) had won against incumbent John Cornyn in the state’s Republican US Senate primary runoffs. At 21.02, Trump started celebrating on social media.
“I’m going to have nice, big, nice rallies for Ken,” the president wrote this morning. “Texas, this is going to be FUN!”
But James Talarico wasted no time either. At 9:03 p.m., Paxton’s Democratic rival for the seat reached out to supporters of Cornyn. “You have a place in our campaign,” he wrote.
Paxton’s clear victory — the biggest primary defeat for an incumbent U.S. senator in nearly five decades — underscores the extraordinary loyalty with which Trump continues to command his base. But Democrats remain optimistic that Paxton’s extremism and scandal-filled past will bring disillusioned Cornyn voters to their camp.
Paxton’s confirmation strengthened Democratic optimism that the party has a chance to win statewide office in Texas for the first time in more than three decades with the help of former conservative Republicans and Latino voters who bounced back from the GOP.
These hopes were further confirmed last night with a fundraising boost. already have Raised $27 million Talarico’s campaign raised the largest sum ever for a U.S. Senate candidate in the first quarter of an election year, in the first three months of 2026. Policy He raised $600,000 in the two hours after Paxton’s win was confirmed Tuesday.
The Cook Political Report shifted the seat’s rating from “Likely Republican” to “Most Likely Republican.”
“While the polls suggest the general election is close or even a tie, we’re not giving Talarico an equal chance yet,” said Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report’s U.S. Senate and governors editor, “and the contest could eventually turn into a Toss Up category.”
Although Paxton won the Republican primary by a 64% to 36% margin when most votes were counted, Democrats are confident the broader electorate will react differently to the hard-line Maga candidate’s bid.
Former Democratic congressman Beto O’Rourke, who narrowly failed to unseat Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, said Paxton was “too extremist and too loyal to Trump” to appeal to independent voters. New York Times.
Some establishment Republicans also fear that the price for Trump’s tight grip around the party could be his control of the U.S. Congress, as his support of more extreme candidates also turns away the voters they need to win.
After Trump’s 11th-hour endorsement of Paxton last week, party senators on Capitol Hill did little to hide their disappointment. “Oh boy,” North Dakota’s John Hoeven he told reportersHe added that he supports Cornyn. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said she was “extremely disappointed.”
“He’s made up his mind,” Republican Senate majority leader John Thune said. “It doesn’t change how I feel.”
After a decade under Trump, the Republican party has become a machine centered around one man. The old guard needs his support no matter how long he’s been around. The question facing voters in Texas and across the country is not whether the Republican party has changed from what it used to be, but whether it has changed enough to consider changing their vote.
But there is also a lesson for both Democrats and moderate Republicans in November following Tuesday’s results.
Almost 1.4 million Texans voted in Tuesday’s runoff elections; That’s about 800,000 fewer votes than in the March primaries. Paxton received nearly 886,000 votes this week. based on He gave several thousand more money to The Associated Press than he received in the first primary in March. But Cornyn, who received nearly 910,000 votes in the spring, received 502,000 votes this time.
In the coming months, both the Paxton and Talarico campaigns will focus just as much (if not more) on who’s staying home. Which party can get voters involved?
