Trump’s plans to lower Iran-war oil prices aren’t working. What could.

The Trump administration has implemented a number of measures to cushion the impact of the Iran-induced increase in oil prices, but prices remain stubbornly high.

As the war continues, it becomes clear that there is not much the United States or any other government can do to alleviate high oil prices without ending the conflict.

A military breakthrough will be required to keep oil flowing and reduce energy prices. This means that this event is sharply different from past market crises that President Donald Trump has gone through. The pattern of rising political tensions following rapid economic relief that has continued throughout Trump’s second presidency may finally be breaking.

This is a problem that Trump cannot solve through economic policy.

The economic mathematics is uncompromising. The war will reduce global oil supplies by about 8 million barrels per day in March. International Energy Agency It is estimated on Thursday. This is causing the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway on the border with Iran that carries as much as 20 million barrels of oil a day in normal times, to be nearly closed, while at the same time the oil industry is trying to get around the problem and production is increasing elsewhere.

The Trump administration and other governments are trying to put more oil on the market, mainly by releasing about 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. But they won’t all come at once. The US share will reach about 1.4 million barrels per day for about four months, according to US plans. Ministry of Energy. According to estimates shared by Goldman Sachs with its clients, global emissions will reach approximately 3 million barrels per day.

These figures are rough estimates made quickly during the war and should be treated with caution. But the general conclusion is clear: government reserves cannot possibly cover even half of the daily deficit caused by the war.

The management also has other plans. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that the administration will ease some sanctions on Russian oil. The US International Development Finance Corporation is working on a plan to support insurance for ships in the region.

Oil prices rose on Friday despite these measures. The price of a gallon of regular fuel on Friday was $0.69 more than it was a month ago. According to AAA. This is an increase of 23 percent. The cost of a barrel of oil in the US market in mid-February was about $63. At noon on Friday it was $97.

The White House is aware of Americans’ concerns. The president said the short-term cost of higher prices was necessary to end the threat of Iran’s nuclear program.

“We expect these prices to decline significantly once the war is completed,” a White House official told CNBC on condition of anonymity to discuss the administration’s strategy.

While Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had been predicting a short war since it began about two weeks ago, they changed what the ultimate goal was and named it the elimination of the Iranian regime, the security of trade in the region and nuclear concerns.

The oil market was well supplied before the war. “Evidence that the bottom may continue to fall is highly speculative at best,” the official said.

Still, it is unusual for this president to come to power through an economic downturn. Trump normally listens closely to the market. The most famous incident was last April, when sticker shock over the size of the tariff program caused stocks to plummet and nearly broke the Treasury market. The administration has backed away from its most extreme plans. The market has learned a lesson embodied in the sarcastic acronym TACO: Trump Is Always Afraid.

It was never true that Trump would lose his nerve. Instead, he was taking big risks for uncertain returns and changing policy and rhetoric when the risks began to materialize.

However, Trump cannot act this way in Iran because the determinant of prices is not an economic policy that can be easily changed.

Iran is a military problem. “The only thing that prohibits passage through the straits is Iran firing on ships,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at Friday’s briefing.

The USA wants the Strait of Hormuz to be opened. Iran does not do this. And 13 days after the start of the war, it’s unclear when that might change, despite the incredible firepower the United States and Israel have rained down on Iran.

The U.S. Navy could escort tankers through the strait, but that could only begin by the end of the month, Energy Secretary Christopher Wright told CNBC on Thursday. Without military assistance, the ship captains are unlikely to back down, even if the U.S. government helps them find more insurance. Even then, oil traffic probably won’t look normal.

The expanding war effort carries disturbing echoes of the Iraq War. The tens of thousands of US troops in the field were not enough to end the violence, and the conflict continued for almost nine years.

However, no one in power is talking openly about sending troops to Iran. Even if oil prices remain high, the U.S. and global economies can weather the Iran war. US economic growth began after Covid, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, leaving oil at $120 per barrel. Gas prices were higher than they are now until the fall of 2023.

Meanwhile, the US military remains the most powerful army in the world. Tehran is preparing for this moment, but so is the Pentagon. Other governments also want the Strait of Hormuz to be opened. Iran probably won’t last forever.

But until Iran capitulates or the U.S. military prevails, markets and the economy will remain vulnerable.