Trump’s Redistricting Push Could Cost Republicans More Than It Gains

Last week was President Donald Trump’s best week in months.

Trump reminded Republicans who’s boss by removing Indiana lawmakers who defied his redistricting demands, saw a Democratic bid to govern Virginia on his own blocked by the state Supreme Court, and had a much better-than-expected jobs report in April.

Maybe it’s best for everyone prepubescent headhe joyfully drove his motorcade over the indoor reflecting pool on the National Mall.

That was enough to make his party forget what was going to happen in November and how little he cared about their long-term prospects. But these twin realities suggest that Republicans need to fend for themselves and not let Trump worsen the damage he has done to their brand since returning to office.

The combination of the successful intimidation campaign in Indiana and the Supreme Court’s overturning of majority-minority districts will encourage the GOP to push for more seats. But they do so at their own risk. Not only will Republicans unwittingly create more competitive races for their own members, they will also energize Democrats and set their party back beyond this president.

To you Republicans eyeing new seats and wondering whether to move forward: dunning recipient.

However, let’s give Trump his due: Thanks to his unique style and the failures of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the president built the 2024 coalition that breathed new life into the GOP. He inundated young voters and expanded his base of working-class whites to include more racial minorities of modest means.

Had Trump assembled a cabinet and pursued an agenda aimed at retaining these voters, he would have reshaped the Republican Party and fractured the Democratic Party.

Of course, given who he is, that’s not what happened and would never happen. Trump spent much of 2025 letting Elon Musk disrupt the federal government, and the president’s only major legislative initiative in the first year, a critical period for any new president, was a bill to extend top-line tax cuts by eight years.

Then in the early months of this year, Trump squandered the critical advantage he had on immigration and inflation, perhaps the two biggest issues of 2024. Its success in securing the border has been overshadowed by Stephen Miller’s deportation policy and Trump’s stubborn obsession with tariffs and images of the war in search of inheritance in Iran, causing prices to soar.

Meanwhile, no one around the president dares tell him no about what’s compounding his problems: the perception of the White House. “looks like eBay” Turning the Department of Justice into an arm of political revenge and a cult of personality makeup projects This would make Kim Jong Un blush.

I offer this summary by explaining why the president’s approval rating has now fallen into the 30s and how he has lost the vital gains he made by defeating Harris. What about Black voters with whom Trump has made modest but significant inroads in 2024? The President is currently underwater with 73 points.

This brings us to the main point.

The Supreme Court may argue that it created racially neutral zones by gutting the Voting Rights Act. But the practical reality of this is that political leaders are staring, and more importantly, confronting Black voters: White Republicans are carving up African-American districts to unseat mostly Black Democrats so they can elect more white Republicans.

I will stick to raw politics and let others present obvious moral arguments for Black voter power in a country with our history.

Southern Republicans in their rush to grab another seat or two should consider what their gains with Black voters might be in 2024.

Do you think GOP candidates will get the 21 percent of Black men in the next election, as Trump is predicted to get in 2024, while giving Democrats perhaps the easiest racist messages in the post-Civil Rights era? If you need a primer, this might be it: You can’t trust Republicans, they just want to silence your voice.

Anyone who has spoken to a black voter, especially one under 60, may recall a recurring conversation: ‘They’ll say I have no particular allegiance to the Democrats, but I almost always vote for them because they’re the less racist of the two parties.’

When Democrats can point to Republicans as the incoming party for greats like Reps. Emanuel Cleaver II and Jim Clyburn upon Trump’s request and the courts’ permission, do you think voters will step in anytime soon? Of course, you could argue that this is just politics and that they are being targeted because of their party, not their race.

But let’s live in reality, shall we?

Images of white Republican lawmakers wearing MAGA flags to vote, Black lawmakers being jostled by white police officers, and the only four African Americans representing Louisiana in Congress since Reconstruction sitting together and begging for Black districts speak louder than any words. And that was just last week. The ads write themselves.

This brings up the second obvious situation that requires attention. This was already shaping up to be a tough election year for Republicans, given Trump’s unpopularity, high price tag, and precedent for most modern midterms. As the country celebrates its 250th anniversary, addressing America’s deepest wounds will only increase Democrats’ enthusiasm and turnout.

As if liberals weren’t already willing to vote. Consider the side-by-side turnout trends in this year’s primaries that have continued so far. in Indiana this week and Ohio.

Finally, there is a reason why the non-aggression pact between old-school Black Democrats and white Republicans has persisted throughout the last several redistricting cycles in the South. Both have safe seats.

For example, if you remove a Clyburn from his district, his former voters could help create new, competitive seats in South Carolina in a tumultuous year for Democrats like this one. Clyburn himself said it out loud to CNN’s Jake Tapper on Sunday.

So will it be easier to win such seats in 2028? Unless Trump can rally his way out, his Republican successor will have an unpopular, lame-duck president with Democrats trying to take back the White House.

I know Trump and his top aides are leaning on Southern lawmakers to suspend the primaries, redraw the House maps, and make a third impeachment slightly less likely. The president is calling South Carolina state senators and pushing the sale through a close vote in that chamber, a couple at the state capitol told me.

But before a hasty rerun of voting is considered there and in other states, GOP state lawmakers need to consider a simple question: It may be in Donald Trump’s interest, but is it in your interest?