U.S.-Iran deal: What to know
Markets are celebrating the preliminary US-Iran agreement aimed at ending a nearly four-month war that triggered a global economic downturn. Stocks rose on Monday as oil prices and bond yields fell.
No agreement has yet been signed, but the parties have agreed to a “memorandum of understanding” and withdrawn militarily, and the critical Strait of Hormuz will be reopened as part of the agreement, according to US President Donald Trump.
Here’s what we know about what was agreed and what might happen next.
Has Iran signed a peace agreement?
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazim Garibabadi said that the text has been finalized and will be signed in Geneva, Switzerland, on Friday. He added: “A permanent and immediate end to the war on all fronts has been declared.” Trump also said that the US naval blockade of Iran will be lifted.
The text of the “Memorandum of Understanding” has not been published as of Monday. We know what we know from the statements of those who participated in the talks.
Is the Strait of Hormuz open?
The Strait of Hormuz is not yet officially open, but both President Trump and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister have said it will reopen once it is signed in Geneva on Friday.
Trump’s response to the deal on Truth Social focused almost entirely on the Strait of Hormuz, saying it would reopen without tolls.
He posted on Truth Social: “I hereby authorize the free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and also authorize the immediate lifting of the U.S. Navy blockade. World Ships, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
He later shared a post stating that the strait would be opened “with the signing of the agreement on Friday for the purpose of clearing mines.”
Iranian state news agency Mehr later reported that the reopening of the strait would be subject to “Iranian regulations”.
Qatar said on Monday it welcomed the agreement between the United States and Iran “on addressing unresolved issues between them, including ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Is the war over?
The United States and Iran stopped immediate hostilities. The agreement will extend the ceasefire for 60 days to create a framework for future negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions and regional security.
These negotiations could create a final peace agreement. Garibabadi says 60-day nuclear talks can start only if US releases billions of dollars There are dollars in frozen Iranian funds. The US denied the claim.
Trump reiterated on Sunday that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.” Room he told the New York Times He said that if negotiations fail to produce a solution to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the United States could attack Iran again.
“The threat of renewed conflict will continue in the coming months. Pushing the most difficult issues to later negotiations prolongs uncertainty and leaves the underlying conflict unresolved,” Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief Middle East analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC.
Most importantly, Israel is not a party to the agreement. The country has been combative since the first attacks on February 28. Their attacks on targets in Lebanon have occasionally shaken the ceasefire. Earlier, Garibabadi had announced that the “permanent and immediate end to the war” included Lebanon. It is unclear whether Israel will accept this.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that the Israel Defense Forces would remain in so-called “security zones” in Gaza and Syria, as well as in Lebanon, adding that Israel would retaliate if Iran attacked the country in response to events in Lebanon.
Who can attend the Geneva signing ceremony?
Tehran has not released a list of participants, which could give a clue as to how parts of Iran’s political establishment support the deal.
The country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has been at the center of the Pakistan-brokered talks and is likely one of Iran’s top signatories.
The participation of parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Galibaf could signal the involvement of Iran’s conservative and security institutions. The attendance of senior security chief Mohammed Bagher Zolghadr would signify the approval of Iran’s Supreme Leader. However, Zolghadr is subject to sanctions.
An official US delegation has not been confirmed.
It was reported that Vice President J.D. Vance was considered for the signing ceremony if the agreement goes through. Trump could also head there directly from the G7 summit in Evian, France. White House envoy Steve Witkoff, who has led much of the U.S. negotiation process with Iran, is also a possible participant.
Many more parties and countries besides just the United States and Iran were involved in the conflict.
One of the most important signals will be whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are drawn into the war, will send representatives from their cabinets. This means that the agreement has wider support from the countries in the region.
Israeli officials are not expected to attend.
