U.S Stock Market prediction for Monday, December 8: Will S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq jump ahead of Fed rate cut meet?

The US Stock Market – S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq – will experience a very important period ahead of the much-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting. Wall Street investors are focused on how divided policymakers are on the expected interest rate cut and what Chairman Jerome Powell is signaling about the path ahead. Five of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee have expressed opposition or skepticism about further expansion, while three members of the Washington-based Board of Governors support the cut.

Janus Henderson equity portfolio manager Jeremiah Buckley said the December meeting doesn’t matter much for markets in the long run. “Of course there may be a short-term fluctuation, but what they do in the first half of 2026 I think is more important than December,” he added. Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index is up 16.6 percent so far this year. Wilmington Trust CIO Tony Roth doesn’t expect stocks to move much if the Fed cuts interest rates.

“The Fed’s move has really taken shape at this point. It’s really just going to be about the Fed’s guidance,” Roth said. “And I think they’re going to be pretty cautious. They’re going to talk about being dependent on data.” Complicating the Fed’s deliberations is the accumulation of economic data. The 43-day government shutdown, the longest in history, delayed the November jobs report until Dec. 16 after policymakers met. The October unemployment rate is unknown because the closure prevented the collection of household survey data used to calculate it.
Although a bit dated, the Jobs and Workforce Turnover Survey data, due to be released on December 9, will give markets an idea of ​​October workforce trends – particularly layoffs – in the current low hiring and low layoff environment.

Some observers do not believe the odds of a rate cut are as high as markets imply and are more interested in Powell’s statements and how close the policy vote is.

“We don’t think anything is certain yet,” said David Seif, Nomura’s chief developed markets economist. “So I think the market has definitely underpriced the risk that the Fed will not cut rates at its December meeting.”
“What’s interesting, especially in a blackout situation, is how much opposition there is,” Seif said. As the four regional presidents leave office, their stances will reveal how much independence they claim and the pressure they will put on the Fed. “Because this actually shows not only what they want to do against Chairman Powell, but also what they want to do against Powell’s successor as president. We’re really trying to understand how much simpler the model at the Fed has become with one person, one vote.”

FAQ

Q1. What are the main indices of the US Stock Market?

A1. US Stock Market indices are S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq.

Q2. When is the US Fed meeting scheduled?

A2. The US Fed meeting is scheduled for December 9 – December 10.