UFC is booming, but is MMA collapsing around it? The data is concerning

For decades, the theory of “Peak Petroleum” has shaped global thought: at some point, oil production is hitting a ceiling – then the supply is irreversible. The oil does not disappear, but it becomes harder, more expensive and less profitable to remove it. Expansion stops. Efficiency tightens. Growth ends.

Now, it’s time to ask a similar question about another global commodity: professional MMA.

Advertising

After twenty years of exploding growth, we may have reached the “peak MMA”-as in the back of us, the explosive, border-like expansion period, not in the meaning of the ends.

MMA doesn’t die, but the growth curve.

The number of global professional MMA fights is decreasing.

Website Temple Every official mixed martial arts match that took place worldwide was dedicated to watching the match, and since 2008, it was gentle enough to provide the number of professional MMA matches organized by Global and Ulus.

Thanks to the data, we can see that the number of professional MMA seizures in 2017 is peak. 20.692. This number decreased slightly in the next two years before falling from a cliff in 2020, thanks to Covid pandemi and economic closing with it. After the world economies began to reopen, he began to recover rapidly in 2021, but the industry never healed. Instead, this second summit in the MMA match in 2023 18.096. The number of matches has decreased since then, 16.808 At the current rate of 2024 and until May this year, 2025 is just 13.636 Total matches.

Advertising

This tendency is as laborious as possible, when we bring individual nations closer.

The US, the backbone of the MMA, has seen a sharp decrease in activity. More in 2009 6–266 Professional fights took place in the country. This would be a peak for American MMA competitions. Until 2024, this number fell too much 3.027 – 52 % decrease.

Historically, the second and third largest markets of sports, Brazil and Russia tell the same story. Brazil went to the top in 2013 3–875 matches; It only hosted until 2024 2.181. Russia reached its highest level in 2018. 3.141 Fights and now only sees 1,782 annually.

Advertising

Other English-speaking fortresses such as Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia-one of the most important part of MMA’s global expansion strategy, experienced steep contractions.

When combined, these three nations 1.941 Only fights in 2011 845 In 2024.

These are not marginal regions. They’re the columns of the sport. And when they drown, it points to something deeper than the cyclic variance. Structural.

So what’s going on?

Was the global expansion of MMA just a enthusiasm?

In 2011, at the summit of MMA’s early explosion, Sports researcher Rich Luker for a long time expressed doubts About the long -term orbit of sports. Specializing in trend analysis and polling, Luker said that MMA has become a staple among young men – estimates that approximately 30 million Americans aged 12 years and older see themselves wider of UFC or MMA’s “enthusiastic” fans.

Advertising

However, he warned that sports may compare with other short -lived phenomena such as poker and professional bull riding on television. His concern was not MMA’s attractiveness – he could have directed the success of innovation more than having difficulty.

Maybe Lurker was in something. The decrease in each of these markets may be the result of fans who are ongoing as MMA’s innovation wear out.

Like the oil discovery, the MMA explosion was directed by new countries, new stars and new markets. However, this growth may not naturally be sustainable. It was based on precious regions and new demand. And when the enlargement limit was closed, the industry did not develop – contract.

Now what we see may not be a temporary pandemic collapse. The collapse of regional markets shows that global MMA is a less infinite growth machine and a more one -time land.

Advertising

However, there is another possibility that explains the decline tendency in the sector.

UFC explodes – but not sports

UFC has never been richer. Since the ESPN agreement that broke the box office records in 2019, it has waved after the wave of success. Publication visibility exploded. Payment per imaging has increased (although it has cooled down since then). Global Reach expanded. UFC did not have more fans or more viewers around the world, he didn’t make money as he is now, and he was not as profitable as it is now (except for one -time legal fees).

Ordinary observer, sport looks healthy.

Advertising

However, the monopolies can grow even if the markets they dominate are smaller.

UFC argues that increasing production proves that sport has developed. However Plaintiffs in an ongoing antitröst case On the contrary: Zuffa suppressed the industry by taking competitors, locking warriors with restrictive contracts and stacking them not to use them-but to prevent others from doing so.

As old CEO Lorenzo Fertitta wrote a text to Dana White in 2014“This F *** Ers had to continue to take the oxygen until he touched.” “F *** ERS” was the opponent supporters. “Oxygen” was accessed by high -level fighters.

If he looks at the competitive landscape in MMA, he seems to be successful in Fertitta.

Advertising

• EmeryOnce upon a time, it was accepted as the most powerful domestic alternative, PFL After years of stagnation in 2023. However, the united company releases the best fighters and is struggling to fight with live doors, ESPN viewers and media relevance.

• A championshipAfter Asia has been launched as the response to UFC, MMA returns to regional Muay Thai in Thailand as financial pressure bonds, completely scaled its efforts.

• Invicta FCOnce upon a time, the promotion of a talented fed to UFC is now operating in a decreasing media profile and a shrinking event program with uncertain long -term stability.

Conclusion? A MMA industry where UFC remains stronger than ever – but more and more onlyRegional MMA proves that it cannot survive in the shadow of UFC.

Japanese exceptionalism

The only exception of this seems to be Japan.

As the rest of the MMA world increased and shrunk, Japan remained relatively constant. Why why? The Japanese MMA is more culturally rooted, more insular and more independent than the global consolidation of the UFC, that is, the probability of MMA becomes a Fad, and the UFC’s MMA brand provides less direct competition to Japan’s supporters.

What does peak mma actually look

So what does “Peak MMA” really mean?

Advertising

It doesn’t mean that UFC’s head is in trouble. The opposite is likely to strengthen. But the sport around it seems to be weakening. The number of professional fights has fallen. The number of appropriate promotions decreased. And perhaps most importantly, the number of opportunities for fighters is decreasing.

Less activity means less paid night. Less chance to be noticed. Less way in the cafe and less talent. It also means more dependence on UFC.

This will be less competing not only for the best fighters-but less options outside the UFC-but this dependence will probably extend to the entry-level warriors that the UFC Fight Pass-connected promotions and the contestant series will receive a greater share of the regional scene.

Who knows – maybe we just find a new, unused resource, and “Peak MMA” thoughts can be postponed for a few more years.