UK in ‘worst-case scenario’ planning for food shortages as a result of Iran war
Britain could see shortages of essential supermarket goods this summer if the Iran war continues, a leaked government document has revealed.
Authorities have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” and have stressed that closing the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route could lead to carbon dioxide shortages.
Secret analysis – first reported by Times – was codenamed “Exercise Turnstone” and was run by the government’s emergency committee, Cobra.
It showed No 10, the Treasury and the Ministry of Defense were involved in rehearsing scenarios examining the impact of the Iran war on British industry.
The “reasonable worst case scenario” was based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened and no peace agreement was reached.
It warned that CO2 supplies could fall to only 18 percent of current levels; The warning was based on a mechanical failure at a major plant in the UK and high gas costs leading to a decline in production of ammonia and fertiliser, which converts CO2 into a by-product, across Europe.
Farming and hospitality are thought to be the two worst-hit sectors, as CO2 is used to extend the shelf life of foods including salads, packaged meats and baked goods.
CO2 is also used in the slaughtering process of pigs and chickens, which are not thought to be a sector with much stocked material.
Breweries may also be affected by shortages due to the use of CO2 to carbonate beverages; This raises concerns that the shortage could cause disruptions during the Fifa World Cup, which starts in June.
But a government spokesman said reasonable worst-case scenarios were “a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events”.
Asked about the leak, the trade minister said the public needed to be “reassured” that ministers were making contingency plans for the impact of the Iran war.
“It’s hard for me because of course these leaks don’t help much,” said Peter Kyle.
“But when people read this, they need to be reassured that we are doing this kind of planning and we are doing this kind of scenario planning.
“Remember that before Covid Boris Johnson missed five Cobra meetings.
“I can tell you, because I’ve been in these meetings, the Prime Minister has been there from the very beginning, and he’s been going through these conversations himself and doing a deep dive into many areas of resilience in our economy.”
Mr Kyle highlighted his own decision, near the start of the conflict, to reverse the scrapping of the Ensus bio-ethanol plant on Teesside to secure carbon dioxide supplies.
He added: “People need to be reassured that we are taking these kinds of actions behind the scenes to maintain the resilience of our economy, so that you have a government that acts with creativity and courage when all the dimensions that may or may not arise as this situation is still unfolding in the Middle East.”
Mr Kyle also insisted carbon dioxide supplies were “not a cause for concern” for the UK.
Asked about the availability of CO2 in the country, he told Sky News: “If any of this changes, I’ll be public about it in advance so we can prepare. But right now people should just carry on as they are, enjoy their beer, enjoy their meat, enjoy all their salads.”
“But there are also critical uses of CO2: MRI scanning, water purification, for example; it’s also in our nuclear industry, our civil nuclear power industry, and there are some defensive uses for it as well.
“There’s a huge need for CO2, so those are the reasons why I took this issue so seriously, not just in the last few weeks but up until six months ago.”
To prevent the “reasonable worst case scenario” from occurring, Times Ministers are reportedly preparing plans to demand factories stop other manufacturing and increase CO2 production to 100 percent.
They also discussed emergency legislation that would force factories to cooperate; This legislation could be passed in just a few days of parliament and would also relax competition law to allow more limited CO2 supplies to be prioritized to key areas, including healthcare.
A government spokesman said: “Last month we took decisive action to support the UK’s critical CO2 supplies by temporarily restarting the Ensus bioethanol plant on Teesside, and we continue to work closely with business groups to combat the impact of events in the Middle East.
“Reasonable worst-case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not predictions of future events.”
