Ukraine is hitting oil facilities deep inside Russia. Soaring fuel prices could blunt the impact
Ukrainian drones fly deep into Russia attack on oil facilitiesIt sends up clouds of smoke visible from space and rains toxic rain on tourist sites in the Black Sea.
The attacks aim to cut off oil exports, the main source of financing for Moscow’s crushing invasion of Ukraine. However, the economic impact is so far uncertain due to the increase in oil prices. Iran warand a related US sanctions reliefThey helped fill the Kremlin’s coffers.
Yet the scope of the attacks and their environmental impact are taking the fight to ordinary Russians far from the front lines.
Oil spilled onto the streets
Ukrainian drones hit the oil refinery and export terminal in the Black Sea town of Tuapse four times in just over two weeksIt sparked fires that prompted local evacuations and caused large plumes of smoke to rise. The town is approximately 450 kilometers (280 mi) from the front lines.
In a video released by local Governor Veniamin Kondratyev after the third attack on April 18, an emergency official said boiling petroleum products spilled onto the streets, damaging cars.
Ukraine said Thursday that it hit an oil pumping station in Russia’s Perm region, more than 1,500 kilometers (900 miles) from Ukraine, for two days in a row. Russian media reported the attacks, but Perm Governor Dmitry Makhonin said only that drones hit industrial facilities.
Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, one of Russia’s largest oil and gas export terminals, was hit three times in a week in late March. It is more than 800 kilometers (500 miles) from Ukraine.
In a broadcast a few weeks later, regional Governor Alexander Drozdenko said that Russia’s second largest city, St. He declared that the area around St. Petersburg is a “front-line zone” due to air threats.
Ukraine says attacks cost Russia billions of dollars
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy likened such attacks to international sanctions imposed on Russia. Now, with the presence of Moscow, these are seen as even more important. reaps unexpected profits from global energy crisis Linked to Iran’s shutdown Strait of Hormuz.
Russia has lost at least $7 billion since the beginning of the year as a direct result of attacks on its oil sector, Zelenskyy said on Friday. He said earlier in the week that Ukrainian intelligence had pointed to a decline in exports from major oil ports such as Ust-Luga and Primorsk.
Experts say that drone attacks also disrupt Russia’s oil refining capacities, while sanctions make it difficult to obtain spare parts.
However, the full economic impact remains unclear as Russia benefits from the Middle East crisis.
Russia’s exports of crude and oil products rose by 320,000 barrels monthly to 7.1 million barrels in March, the International Energy Agency said. Rising prices meant oil export revenues nearly doubled from $9.7 billion to $19 billion. It is unclear whether the strikes in April will break this trend.
Macro-Advisory Ltd. “U.S. action against Iran saved both the Russian oil sector and the federal budget from a crisis that was clearly developing in late February,” said Chris Weafer, CEO of Consultancy.
Meanwhile, he said, the damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure was much less than the major explosions would indicate.
“If you hit an oil tank, especially an oil tank that’s not full, the vapors will ignite and you’ll burst into flames. That’s why it looks so spectacular.” But he said this only delayed deliveries by a few days.
“It’s much less damaging than hitting pump stations, compressors, or loading infrastructure. And they appear to be well protected. Tanks are not.”
Long-range drones expand Russia’s defenses
The ability to strike key infrastructure deep within Russia has highlighted Ukraine’s growing military capabilities and put pressure on Moscow’s overstretched air defenses. It also forced more Russians to confront the consequences of a war their government claimed to have won.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry says Russia has more than doubled the range of its forces’ deep strike capabilities since its large-scale invasion in February 2022. The increased range also allows drones to attack locations from different directions, complicating countermeasures.
“Drone strikes have been a very successful example so far of using simple technologies and domestically assembled technology to attack Russia in places where they never expected to be attacked at the start of the war,” said Marcel Plichta, PhD. candidate in the School of International Affairs at the University of St Andrews.
“This talent didn’t exist” four years ago, he said.
There may be long-term consequences
Russian officials are generally reluctant to comment on deep attacks.
However, the Tuapse attacks and the images that followed attracted attention in the Russian media. President of Russia Vladimir Putin He warned of “serious environmental consequences” while insisting everything was under control.
Authorities warned that high levels of the carcinogen benzene, found in petroleum products, were recorded in the air as the fires burned and urged residents to limit their time outdoors.
Area residents also widely reported “black rain” oily droplets landing on their skin and clothing. Local news outlets published photos of stray dogs and cats whose fur was dyed gray. Oil spills along the coastline have covered birds and fish, and Russian media recently published images of dolphins washed ashore.
These images shocked Russians who were used to vacationing on the Black Sea coast.
This could have long-term consequences for human health and the region’s ecosystem, said Vladimir Slivyak, co-chairman of Russian environmental group Ecodefense.
“There is a lot of oil in the sea,” he said. “Every storm over the next few years will bring more oil pollution to the coast.”
The authorities have not yet publicly reacted to the strike. a crackdown on dissent. However, this may change as the damage spreads.
“I think many people understand that there is a huge difference between what Putin says and what regional officials say and what is actually happening,” Slivyak said.
