US-based prediction markets taking bets on Australian elections and Albanese’s word choices | Gambling

US-based “prediction market” websites are taking tens of thousands of dollars in bets on the Australian election, and even specific remarks made by prime minister Anthony Albanese in parliament are alarming gambling advocates and the betting lobby.

Australian financial and media regulators said they were monitoring the explosion in popularity of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which operate financial exchanges where users buy “stakes” in contracts on the outcomes of events.

Although neither site is approved by Australian regulators and does not allow Australian users, experts say the sites can be easily accessed via online VPNs.

“We’re concerned about this. I think this will be part of the next wave.” [of gambling] “This will have a profound impact and will hit Australia where regulators and policymakers will be left far behind,” said Martin Thomas, chief executive of the Gambling Reform Alliance.

Prediction market sites allow users to buy shares in yes/no markets against other users, from sports to politics to pop culture and even the weather. Traditional gambling platforms see users betting against bookmakers, but gambling advocates say they operate in similar ways.

Kalshi and Polymarket are rapidly gaining popularity in the US by offering markets for basketball or football games, tennis matches or combat sports; but also “When will traffic return to normal in the Strait of Hormuz?”, “Bitcoin price by the end of 2026”, “Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 21” or “Will Drake’s ‘The Iceman’ exit the No. 1 spot?”

A spokesperson for Kalshi said the platform “does not trade” in Australia and states on its website that trading is “prohibited for residents” in more than 50 countries, including Australia. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (Acma) last year authorized Australian internet service providers to block access to Polymarket after it was thought to be offering “gambling services” without a valid licence.

But both sites host a wealth of Australian markets across sports, politics, culture and economics. Polymarket received approximately US$500,000 from the winner of the Farrer by-election, while Kalshi received US$98,572.

Kalshi hosts markets including “Australian unemployment rate in May” and “Who will win the next Australian Parliament election?” It is traded at a value of US$16,000. and $8,400 on the Central Bank’s cash rate decision in June.

Earlier this month, Kalshi hosted a market where Albanians would sing individually during parliament’s question period; US$13,000 was traded in contracts on whether to say words such as “Iran”, “TAFE”, “Trump”, “tax cuts” or “health care”, among others.

Polymarket hosts markets on the RBA’s decisions ($28,000 in calls in June) or whether Albanese will “emerge as prime minister” by June or December ($12,000 in trades).

“Australians are seeking these products in droves and demand is currently being met entirely by illegal offshore operators outside Australian laws and protections,” said Kai Cantwell, chief executive of Responsible Wagering Australia, the peak body for licensed gambling services.

“In their current form, these platforms create serious integrity risks because markets can be easily manipulated, especially when there is little transparency or oversight about how they operate.”

Thomas said the Gambling Reform Alliance was concerned about whether the government’s upcoming betting reforms would adequately address the new trend.

“They’re growing at a tremendous pace in the United States, and it doesn’t take long for these things to come here,” Thomas said.

“They seem to have fallen into a complete hole and despite all our efforts to regulate online gambling this will elude them.”

A government spokesman said future reforms would extend Acma’s powers to block illegal gambling websites, extend existing bans on advertising and block transactions against banned gambling operators.

A spokesman for Kalshi said the company was committed to operating “in a regulatory-first manner, including in Australia” but had “no current plans” to gain approval to operate there.

Asked about Australian users, the spokesperson said “we have no business there” and said they were not concerned about Australians trying to access their sites.

“We have a full engineering team looking at issues like this.”

A spokesperson for financial regulator the Australian Securities and Investments Commission said bets on prediction markets are “high risk and speculative and pose a significant risk to retail investors”, noting that no such provider has an Australian market licence.

“Asic continues to monitor the rise of prediction markets in the US and is considering how local financial services laws may be implemented,” they said.

Acma’s investigation into Polymarket in 2025 included a formal warning sent to the company last July. The regulator said it was monitoring prediction market services but was not making formal inquiries into other operators at this stage.

Acma noted that Kalshi geoblocks users in Australia, but added: “We are also aware that some people may attempt to bypass geoblocking by using virtual private networks (VPNs).”

A spokesman for Polymarket declined to comment.