US downgrades AUKUS sub to second-hand version
Defense Minister Richard Marles says taxpayers will save money by abandoning a plan to buy a new and improved nuclear submarine from the US, but experts warn Australia will receive a shorter-lived, less capable ship under the AUKUS shift.
The last of three Virginia-class submarines Australia plans to buy from the United States will now be second-hand rather than a new boat as originally planned, Marles and US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Saturday.
Under the AUKUS plan announced in 2023, Australia would purchase a mix of new and second-hand submarines from the United States. The vision was for two second-hand US submarines to arrive from 2032, with the third submarine supposed to be a new and improved Block IV Virginia-class boat.
All three ships will now be used as submarines that have been in service for years and possibly more than a decade.
Marles said the change was primarily about reducing risk and complexity, but that it would result in a “significant” reduction in the purchase price of the last US submarine.
“It definitely helps,” Marles told reporters at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore when asked about the cost impact of the move.
“This is obviously a very expensive program and we are trying to find every cost-effective option as we go down this path.
“So this is a very useful financial contribution to the cost of the overall program.”
The decision is believed to be linked to senior Pentagon official Elbridge Colby’s review of AUKUS, which was completed late last year but has not yet been made public.
Colby has previously expressed concern that supplying Virginia-class submarines to Australia could deplete the US Navy’s reserves due to slow American production rates.
Marles, Hegseth and British Defense Minister John Healey said in a statement that the decision was about “simplifying supply chain management, operational and maintenance requirements and maximizing cost efficiency.”
The government estimates the total cost of the AUKUS plan will be between $268 billion and $368 billion over three decades, making it the largest defense procurement project in Australian history.
Opposition defense spokesman James Paterson said: “This appears to be a significant change of plans for the procurement of Virginia-class submarines… I will be seeking an explanation from Defense estimates in the Senate this week as to why this change has been made and what the consequences are.”
Former senior defense official Michael Shoebridge said: “This is bad news. The new Virginias are more capable and easier to maintain… The US isn’t building enough submarines, so they’re leaving the more capable ones to themselves.”
Australia’s new Block VII submarine planned to be purchased from the late 2030s has been revealed by trade publication Army Recognition “One of the latest and most advanced versions of the Virginia-class submarine with improved stealth, greater use of unmanned underwater systems and enhanced capability for long-range attack and seabed operations.”
Each of the Virginia-class submarines is estimated to cost $5 billion ($6.95 billion) to produce, including weapons, according to the US congressional research service.
Marles said there had long been discussions about whether Australia should seek to buy a new submarine from the US, which could mean the Australian navy would operate four different types of submarines simultaneously: the Collins-class submarine, two types of Virginia-class submarines and the new SSN-AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine being developed between the UK and Australia.
“What we’ll have here is a much simpler way,” he said.
“This will mean that the Virginia-class submarines we buy will all be of the same type, and I cannot overstate the importance of this to both the submarines that operate them and the people who work on them to keep them afloat.”
Greens senator David Shoebridge said it was ridiculous for Marles to portray the decision as a victory for Australia and described AUKUS as a “bad deal” for Australia.
“You cannot compensate for these in AUKUS,” he said.
Former naval officer Jennifer Parker said she supported the decision but acknowledged the move had drawbacks.
“This reduces the risk and complexity in what was already a very ambitious program,” said Parker, an associate researcher in marine studies at UNSW.
“If the three submarines we buy come from the same block, they will have the same configuration, the same training and maintenance requirements, and the same spare parts. We won’t need to put them through trials for initial certification. These boats will still be streets ahead of any other attack submarine in the world.”
But he added: “The third submarine is now less capable than the old one and will have a shorter lifespan. It may have 20 years of service life left instead of 33.”
Matthew Knott is the foreign affairs and national security correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect with: X, Facebook or email.
Lisa Visentin is the North Asia correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, based in Beijing. He was previously a federal political correspondent in Canberra.Connect with: X or email.
