US war on Iran exposes Australia’s frail defence, AUKUS even more

The US war against Iran has exposed Australia’s defense and supply incompetence. Rex Patrick AUKUS reports implications for the submarine program.

A tense moment

USS Charlotte was at periscope depth, but the periscope was low, making it less likely that the periscope or the wave it created would be seen by the enemy. It was a tense moment.

“Safe/Fire switch for fire”, the captain ordered.

The officer on duty at the fire control console repeated the order: “Safe/Fire switch for fire”and then advised the captain:“The Safe/Fire key is to Fire”.

“Fire 4 tubes at target 1”, the captain said in a loud and clear voice.

The officer repeated the order and said ‘Fire’ button. A low level rumble was both felt and heard throughout the submarine as the pressure relief system pushed the Mk 48 Torpedo through the tube. “gun workscalled the officer.

As the gun raced toward the Iranian frigate, the submarine performed an additional visual adjustment via the periscope to update the gun. The updated targeting solution was transmitted through a very long and thin guide wire connecting the torpedo to the submarine.

The update was also installed on the second torpedo’s guidance system. “Fire 1 tube at target 1”.

The first torpedo did not do its job. The second exploded directly under the target, lifting the hull out of the water and sending a violent shockwave. Structural damage was complete when the hull fell back into the water.

The frigate’s Iranian captain would first become aware of the US submarine when he felt the explosion under his feet.

don’t queue

USS Charlotte didn’t just run into INS Dena. Instead, days earlier, it had been lined up for the target by people in the United States tracking the location of every surface ship in the world.

The submarine traveled for days at a high speed of approximately 30 knots (55 km/h) from its routine patrol area in the Indian Ocean to the waters south of Sri Lanka. This is one of the most important advantages of a nuclear-powered submarine. They can cover long distances quickly.

Once in the area, the submarine crew would detect (find) and track the contact (calculate its range, course, and speed), then classify (identify) it using a combination of acoustic and electronic emissions, and finally visually confirm through the periscope that it was INS Dena.

Then ‘bang’.

Effects of AUKUS

Iran War showed submarines 21st century war combat assets with evergreen capabilities; They can gather intelligence, conduct reconnaissance, launch land attack missiles, secretly land special forces, secretly lay mines, and sink submarines and surface ships.

But what happened after February 28 showed us other things.

AUKUS is described by many as a program that facilitates a close alliance with the United States and strengthens integration.

While Donald Trump broke his written Free Trade Agreement commitments to Australia on ‘Emancipation Day’, those in the Canberra bubble were blind to the relevance of this breach to the ANZUS agreement and the AUKUS agreement. Of course, the US defense agreement with Australia would be treated differently.

While the US launched an AUKUS review to see AUKUS skeptic Elbridge Colby recommend halting the program until Trump realized the financial benefit of continuing it and overruled Colby, those in the Canberra bubble breathed a collective sigh of relief and chose not to think too hard.

torn

As Trump, in the words of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, ‘shattered’ the international rules-based order (by carrying out military action in Venezuela, threatening Panama, threatening to invade Greenland, pushing NATO to the brink, attacking Iran and now threatening Cuba) those inside the Canberra bubble appeared to reject the US Administration’s departure from Australian values; Or maybe they responded but decided not to respond.

But last month Prime Minister Albanese responded correctly to the ‘break’ without, as is often the case, assigning Australian forces to blindly follow the US (as a down payment on US support for Australia if needed).

Albanese sent an RAAF early warning aircraft to support the air defenses of the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries, but did not participate in a US-led effort as in the past.

dominant thought

Albanese is right. The United States did not seek to gain international support and/or UN approval for an attack on Iran. Instead, he chose to plan in secret cooperation with Israel and then launch a surprise attack to kill the Iranian leadership when negotiations with Iran were supposed to be continuing.

Only when the going got tough did Washington call on its allies for help, and under conditions they rightfully rejected.

Trump’s Iran War hurt Australia.

The impact of Trump’s war is causing economic damage around the world.

The war also brought Australia’s vulnerabilities. For decades distance has kept us relatively insulated from conflict, but this conflict has directly affected us as world fuel supplies are disrupted and prices soar. And the full extent of this new energy shock is still ahead of us.

Maybe this was the shock we were meant to experience;

We have a chance to reflect on our need to pursue a more independent path in a world where many past assumptions are being turned upside down.

Can Australia defend itself?

US submarine shortage

Australia has long relied on the strength of the navy, which Prime Minister Robert Menzies likes to call “our great and mighty friends”; first the British Empire and the Royal Navy; Pax Americana was subsequently approved by the United States Navy. Times are changing now

and they are changing rapidly.

The US Navy has grown from a fleet of 1,000 ships during the Cold War to a navy of 600 ships during the Reagan era, to a fleet of only 300 ships now. China now has the largest navy in the world, with 350 to 370 ships, and Chinese shipyards are producing warships much faster than their U.S. counterparts.

The US Navy still has a qualitative edge, but the US Navy is not what it used to be, and it has become well established that quantity has a quality of its own.

The USA aims to increase the number of warships to 381. The desired number for nuclear attack submarines is 66; They currently only have 49.

The USN has been purchasing 2 submarines a year since 2011 (last year it was just one, because deliveries are so far behind).

The actual Virginia-class production rate has never reached 2.0 boats per year and has been limited to approximately 1.1 to 1.2 boats per year since 2022, resulting in a growing backlog of boats supplied but not yet built.

US Navy Shipbuilding Plan (Source: Congressional Budget Office).

They cannot build enough boats to meet their own needs,

leave ours alone.

There was an idea in the USA that the submarines transferred to the Royal Australian Navy would be made available to the USA in time of conflict, but the Iran War strengthened this assumption.

And Trump recognized this this week, first expressing his disappointment at Britain’s refusal to become directly involved in the Iran War, then turning his thoughts to Australia: “Australia wasn’t very good either. I’m a little surprised about Australia”.

Trump is known to hold grudges. What will keep him supporting AUKUS will be money flowing from Australian taxpayers to US shipyards; There will be no contract for delivery and no clawback option for Australian contribution that the US does not deliver. This is the kind of deal Trump likes.

Rudd gives his AUKUS speech in Washington, but is the USA marching?

Submarine shortage in England

And the UK is worse off than the US. The Royal Navy has a nuclear attack submarine ready for operations; This fact became clear to Australians when the lone submarine cut short its visit to Western Australia and headed towards the Iranian conflict zone.

Retired Rear Admiral Peter Briggs told all at an event hosted by Malcolm Turnbull at the Canberra Press Club and said the UK had warned:Dropped below minimum sustainable powerSubmarines were called “for submarines” and the country would be late in delivering its first SSN-AUKUS boat, a design that Australia also hopes to start building in Adelaide in the 2030s.

“The last two (Astute class boats) built at the shipyard and four critical ballistic missile submarines are lined up behind the Dreadnoughts..”

“You cannot take out the first SSN-AUKUS until the fourth ballistic missile submarine leaves the shipyard. This is the UK’s national priority.”

defensive incompetence

At the same conference, the incompetence of our Ministry of Defense was clearly revealed.

A Defense representative put it this way: After decades of submarine procurement failures (including $4 billion spent on French submarines we never got), it’s still “full speed ahead” in the best spirit of Captain Smith on the Titanic bridge.

Turnbull: “What is our plan B if we don’t have a new submarine from the USA?” In response to the question, Deputy Undersecretary for Strategy and Policy Hugh Jeffrey gave the following answer: “You know, as a public servant, it’s the government’s prerogative, not my job, to talk about Plan B.”.

AUKUS continued to teach its skeptics a lesson“If you really want to be in a position where we don’t have submarines, ‘go back.'” Speaking as an apolitical public servant, I think we need to get rid of this relentless politicization of defense capabilities.”

AUKUS end

He definitely didn’t know what he was saying. “If the project is canceled, we will have no submarines left,” he warns. The problem is that if AUKUS is not launched, we will have no submarines left. And we will have paid a lot of money for non-submarines.

After the failure of fuel security, the failure of submarine supply, and the breakdown of the rules-based order of the country we relied on for the program, perhaps Albanese will finally put an end to this foolish program and move towards a more realistic, confident and sustainable strategic policy.

If we don’t, our sovereignty may become hollow and we may find that others will decide our nation’s future.

Dumb Ways to Buy: Defense ‘mess-ups’ revealed – former submariner and senator Rex Patrick

Rex Patrick is a former Senator for South Australia and formerly a submariner in the armed forces. Known as an anti-corruption and transparency warrior, Rex is also known as “Transparency Warrior“