Video shows ships turning away from the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran declaring it open
Video footage shows oil tankers being cautious about passing through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran announced on Friday that the sea route was open to commercial ships.
Oil futures fell on Friday as the market interpreted the announcement from Tehran as a major breakthrough that would ease a major disruption to global energy supplies. US criterion, West Texas Intermediate crude oil It fell 12% to $83.85 per barrel on Friday. Brent crude futures It finished the day with a loss of 9 percent.
However, statements by Iranian officials and President Donald Trump caused confusion about whether the strait was actually open.
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in the first place in question The strait was “fully open” for the remainder of the ceasefire with the United States and Israel. But Iranian media, cooperating with the Revolutionary Guard, published conditions for safe passage that resembled the rules Tehran has been following for weeks.
‘A false dawn’
Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, said that on Friday, several tankers and cargo ships tried to leave the strait via the route Iran had determined around Larak Island, but suddenly turned back.
“They were clearly not given a pass,” Smith said.
A source close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said commercial ships should follow the route determined by Tehran and coordinate with the military. Tasnim News. According to the classification report, ships are not allowed to pass if the ships or their cargo are connected to enemy countries.
“It’s not clear if there’s a dramatic change here,” said Tomer Ranaan, a maritime risk analyst with Lloyd’s List Intelligence. “Iran still wants ships to pass through its territorial waters.”
Meanwhile, Trump said that the US naval blockade of Iran continues. Tehran threatened to close the strait if the blockade was not lifted.
All of this means the strait remains functionally closed, said Matthew Wright, Kpler’s senior load analyst. “This is a false dawn,” Wright said.
‘It was not said to be safe’
BIMCO, the world’s largest maritime union, advised ships on Friday to avoid the strait due to the mine threat. BIMCO’s security chief, Jakob Larsen, said the area “has not been declared safe for passage at this point.”
Diplomatic initiatives between the United States and Iran may ease the oil futures market, but they cannot solve the physical disruption in energy supply. Disruption will worsen day by day as the strait remains closed.
The last oil and product tankers to leave the Persian Gulf before the strait closed completed their weeks-long journey to destinations in Asia, Europe and North America.
One of the latest shipments, a tanker carrying Iraqi crude oil, is due to arrive in Long Beach, Calif., next week, said Wright, Kpler’s shipping analyst.
Smith said that with no more oil coming from the strait, the dominoes will begin to fall. Refineries in Asia, which are heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, will have to cut production, he said. This means countries that import products such as jet fuel from Asian refineries will potentially face supply shortages, he said.
“The supply shortage in Asia is greater than elsewhere,” Wright said. “They have already significantly reduced their onshore stock.”
Wright said it would take months for traffic in the strait to return to normal. He said major shipping companies would likely stand on the sidelines and observe the first movers before diving in on their toes.
Correction: An earlier version of this story misspelled Tomer Ranaan’s name.
