Volume of freight trade could hinge on decision

The U.S. Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on the legality of many of President Donald Trump’s tariffs is unsettling companies considering potential rollbacks, but the ruling could also quickly impact trade volumes to the U.S. ahead of Chinese New Year, according to logistics experts.

The shipping industry in the U.S. has seen rates stagnate due to falling container volumes after companies front-loaded products to soften the impact of tariffs. Moving freight forward has changed the traditional peak season for shipping container movement in 2025.

If tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, imports to the United States could rise as companies become more confident in their cash positions and seek an opening to buffer inventories ahead of the Trump administration’s revised tariff plan, which officials say will be ready to meet current trade targets.

“If IEPPA tariffs were to be removed from all imported goods, there would definitely be an increase in imports,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics. “Especially for goods recently sourced from high-tariff countries,” he said.

The Supreme Court issued three decisions Wednesday morning, but the tariff case was not among them.

While Trump’s trade war hasn’t slowed China’s trade with other countries — it just reported a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion — global ocean container volumes to the U.S. tracked by SONAR are showing a 14% year-over-year decline. High tariffs forced some businesses to operate with lower inventories; The most severe decline was in Chinese trade. Project44’s January Tariff Report estimates that U.S. imports from China are down 28 percent from the previous year, while exports to China are down 38 percent in 2025. “This marked one of the sharpest bilateral trade contractions in recent history,” Project44 said in its report.

The Supreme Court decision comes at a critical time of the year for supply chain management decisions within companies, as factories in China were closed for a month in February for the Lunar New Year. Spring and summer freight delivery orders need to be placed early to ensure timely delivery of products from factories to the United States. The time frame for companies to place production orders for the Lunar New Year is usually late December or early January to avoid a slowdown in the production of their imports. According to SEKO Logistics, the slowdown in production begins three to four weeks before the Lunar New Year, when workers begin leaving factories and heading home.

This year, Lunar New Year falls between February 17 and March 3.

“If the Supreme Court rules that the tariffs are unlawful, this will certainly impact orders, with demand for bookings increasing for three reasons,” said Brian Bourke, chief commercial officer at SEKO Logistics. “First, the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. Second, we expect other tariff provisions to be fully utilized, but with limits and implementation timelines to encourage companies to ‘beat the clock’ again, and third, ensuring expected future cash flow to fund these acquisitions.”

International Trade Court if tariffs are ruled illegal has legal authority Requiring refunds to be paid to U.S. importers and retaining jurisdiction over refund claims for a two-year statute of limitations. At the same time, the Trump administration has said it already has a plan in place to implement the tariffs using other legal provisions if the Supreme Court rules against it.

Small companies are expected to take action first. “Small and medium-sized businesses need to start ordering earlier than larger businesses due to their scheduling and smaller staff,” said Eytan Buchman, CMO of Freightos. “Tariffs are eating away at their lives because of the lack of stability in supply chain planning. There is a lot of uncertainty.”

Based on comprehensive analysis five years of Lunar New Year order data, Freightos expects orders to increase from small and medium-sized businesses very soon if there is a decision against Trump’s tariffs.

“We normally see a big increase in importer activity three to four weeks before Chinese New Year,” Buchman said. “This means small and medium-sized businesses in the U.S. have until January 20 to plan their shipments.”

A. latest survey The report from Freightos states that not all small and medium-sized businesses will start sourcing from China. Respondents said they would expand their global sourcing base and consider high-quality, lower-cost suppliers in new regions without tariff-related cost penalties if the tariffs were declared illegal by the Supreme Court. Others have stated that they will move production back to China.

A recent CNBC Supply Chain survey showed no increase in additional orders from China in November or December. trade truce Despite the expectations of logistics managers, it was announced on October 30 that there may be an increase in new orders between the two countries. The current state of thin inventories in the US supply chain is clearly visible in post-holiday trade data. Warehouse stocks are monitored Logistics Managers Index It shows a strong monthly contraction of 17.4% in warehouse stocks.

“There’s a certain sense of defeat right now because they feel worse than they did a year ago. They want to be able to plan their supply chain,” Buchman said.

But not all players in the supply chain are convinced that the Court’s decision will be a factor that will significantly affect US trade volumes. IMC Logistics told CNBC it is seeing strong volumes from Asia to the West Coast and does not foresee a decline in volumes as retailers, manufacturers and wholesalers are actively restocking after a strong holiday season. “Import volumes continued to show strength through the end of the year and into January 2026,” said Brian Kobza, IMC’s chief commercial officer.

Kobza added that because it takes time for orders to be placed and then travel across the ocean, any impact on higher container volumes will not be seen for about 45 days. “We do not believe the decision will impact total import volumes either way, depending on how trade responds in 2025,” he said.

“There might be a small increase if the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs, but it doesn’t look like it’ll be anything dramatic,” said OL USA CEO Alan Baer.