What happens next in France after Lecornu’s resignation?
After a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders, he speaks in the midst of the end of the French Ambassador’s Washington, DC, the US residence in the United States on August 18, 2025.
Yves Herman | Reuters
French President Emmanuel Macron faces a great political headache after his dismissal after his dismissal only 27 days after his shock resignation of his prime minister Sebastien Lecornu.
Former Defense Minister and for a long time, the allied, after negotiations with the new parties, after showing that they were reluctant to compromise on their budget and policy demands, he resigned on Monday, saying that he could not lead the central right minority government.
According to the comments translated by France 24, “Every political party acts as if it has its own majority in parliament.” He said.
The crisis that France has found itself is largely due to the construction of Macron, the President confidently dissolves the parliament last year to “clarify” to the divided national assembly of France.
The follow -up elections brought something that led to a power struggle and a political stalemate since then, with both the right and left -winted consecutive voting tours. Macron, reluctant to leave government leadership to both sides, appointed loyalists to lead minority governments, but they proved that he was vulnerable to the insecure movements of the rival parties.
Lecornu’s short -lived government came third after the malicious administrations of Michel Barnier and Francois Bayrou. The common is that all of them have struggled to reach agreements with other parties on the state budget, and in particular 5.8% of the gross domestic product in 2024, to reach the agreements on expenditure interruptions and tax increases to restrain the budget deficit.
On Monday evening, a surprise bending Macron gave Lecornu 48 hours for “last discussions” to try to break the dead end with rival parties. Lecornu wrote to X on Wednesday evening that he would report to the president about any potential breakthrough, so he can “achieve all the necessary results”.
What will happen next?
Macron is now a move that will trigger a new presidential election that will not take place until 2027, without any option to be attractive for the sieged president who said he would not resign again and again again.
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during the United Nations Palestinian Summit at the UN Headquarters during the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York on 22 September 2025.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images
Another prime minister can choose – France’s sixth in less than two years – but to choose someone who is not from his political stables, but will be a disturbing and unifying possibility for Macron, who repeatedly selected the government last year.
Or he can terminate the parliament and make new parliamentary choices. This option will not object because Marine Le Pen’s anti -immigrant national Rally Party is currently leading. Voter surveysWith approximately 32% of the votes, it was seen compared to 25% of the votes made by the left wing alliance, the new popular façade.
Analysts say it is not possible to choose to resign Macron. “It is very dangerous to do the right thing and of course does not want to resign from power,” InSead said in a statement on Monday, Douglas Yates, Professor of Political Science.
“The only thing I can say with security today is that Macron will not announce his own resignation, so the easiest thing would be to give a name to another prime minister whom he likes to change the shirts, and if the new pm did not last long, he could name anyone else. And that would be to play his institutional advantage.”
Yates did not believe Macron would say new elections, because it was very disastrous, and any new survey would reflect the polarized nature of politics in France with a cliff among the left and right voters.
Is it left or not?
There are speculations that Macron can take a dive and can nominate an unidentified PM from his own central political backyard.
Macron’s most left French -free party or the far -right national rally, there is very little chance of choosing a island, both sides want to dismiss Macron on Monday.
Marine Le Pen, President of the National Parliament Group of the Rassemblement, appeals to the press because it came to its party’s center in Paris on 6 October 2025.
Thomas Samson | AFP | Getty Images
Yates, “So far has chosen the wrong person and selected people from the center and alienated from the left and right.” He said.
“I think I think it will do better by throwing a little fresh meat to the left, which can help him create a government and probably avoid a censorship movement, so I think a socialist probably the most acceptable, even one of the greenery candidates.” He said.
And budget?
While political paralysis continues in Paris, the 2026 budget remains in the limo, and economists say it is increasingly likely to transfer this year’s budget to the next year as a stopping interval.
Deutsche Bank’s Yacine Rouimi said that if the government collapsed on Monday, France’s “2025 framework, as it is now, said that the deficit was 5.0-5.4 % of GDP.”
“It is not impossible for us to see new elections soon.” He said.
If Macron prefers to choose a new prime minister from a different party, such as the Socialist Party, it may mean expenditure interruptions that have been discussed and unsuccessful by previous administrations, and can be further weakened.
