What Las Vegas tells us about Trump

With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray

On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha debate the pros and cons of President Donald Trump’s trip to Vegas, the Democratic Party’s complicated relationship with Israel … and why there’s seemingly no end to the jaw-dropping stories about RFK Jr.

Good Thursday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, watching and rewatching that viral clip of new Hungarian PM Péter Magyar’s extraordinary first appearance on pro-Viktor Orbán state media, after 18 months of being derided and shunned. It’s worth two minutes of your time.

NEW THIS MORNING — JAY TO STAY? Fed Chair Jerome Powell is increasingly resolved to hang onto his seat on the Federal Reserve board, POLITICO’s Victoria Guida reports in her latest Capital Letter column. Powell has “grown less and less likely to leave the Fed as Trump’s legal threats against him have intensified. Before the Justice Department went after the Fed, Powell probably would have departed when his chairmanship expired. Now, he is said to be far more open to staying on as a governor beyond that.”

Oops: This is shaping up to be a classic backfire for Trump, who’s spent the past year trying to bully Powell out of his job, without success. Powell is due to step down as chair next month, but can remain a governor on the Fed board until 2028 if he wishes. His presence would provide a significant counterweight to any pressure from the board’s Trump appointees for further cuts to interest rates — and a significant source of irritation for the president. Read the full column

In today’s Playbook …

— Trump goes to Vegas to sell his tax cuts.

— What a special election in New Jersey tells us about Democratic views on Israel.

— And RFK Jr. is blitzing the Hill. So why is everyone talking about … raccoon penises?

SPINNING THE WHEEL: It must have made perfect sense in the White House planning meeting — send Trump to Las Vegas, the day after Tax Day, to celebrate “no tax on tips.”

Excuse the pun, but the stakes are high. The White House urgently needs to reset the conversation in an election year now dominated by war and economic gloom. And so at 4 p.m., the president will host a televised event in a Sin City hotel chain, surrounded by Nevada locals who just landed big refunds via the tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

And where better than Vegas to promote “no tax on tips,” a city built on the hospitality industry? It’s the very place Trump says he was first inspired to adopt the policy by a waitress working in his luxury hotel on the strip.

The problem for Trump is that like any American city with a “working class backbone,” as POLITICO’s Megan Messerly puts it in her big scene-setter this morning, Vegas is also well acquainted with the myriad voter concerns that look set to cost Republicans this fall.

“Few places epitomize the contrast between what the White House is selling and what average employees are experiencing more than Las Vegas,” Megan writes of the city where she spent seven years covering politics. Vegas, she writes, “powered by a working-class and Latino coalition that helped elect Trump in 2024, is especially reliant on tourism, and the kinds of discretionary income susceptible to being sucked up by a sudden spike in gas prices.”

In other words — any war-fueled downturn in tourism this summer would hit hard.

And there’s more: These two core Las Vegas voter groups — working class and Latinos — are the same two groups that Trump attracted so successfully with his 2024 promise to “bring down prices;” but who are now drifting away from Republicans at an alarming rate. “Gas prices are high, that’s just part of it,” a 66-year-old shoe shiner named Wayne from north Las Vegas tells Megan. “When you go to buy steaks, it used to be $4.99 a pound. And now it’s $9.99 … You just have to live with it.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The shift among Latinos — who make up almost one in five voters in Nevada — looks even more bleak for Trump, new polling shared with POLITICO’s Samuel Benson confirms. For this group, anger at persistently high prices is twinned with deep unhappiness about Trump’s immigration clampdown.

Two-thirds of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s management of immigration and the economy,according to a new poll commissioned by Third Way and UnidosUS. And notably, more than a third of Latino Trump voters say they regret voting for him. “The extent of the bottom falling out on Latino voter support for Trump is pretty staggering,” said Lanae Erickson, senior VP at Third Way. “I think we realized it had softened, but it has really just absolutely eroded any gains that he and his party had made through 2024.”

And it’s about to translate into votes. The poll finds that, ahead of the midterms, Democrats have a 4-point lead over Republicans on a generic ballot for Congress among all voters. Yet among Latino voters, Democrats’ lead widens to a whopping 30 points.

Chin up! The more optimistic Republicans believe there’s still time for momentum to swing back before November. “The White House is very much banking on these large tax refunds to start turning that tide around,” one GOP operative tells Playbook’s Ali Bianco. “We can remind people that look, you may not like what we’re doing in Iran. Your gas prices may be up a little bit higher — but they’ll eventually come back down. [And] you just got a huge refund. You’re not paying as much higher tax. And you know, the Democrats voted for all of that to go up.”

But even in Trump world, the faith is fading, Dasha writes — especially as the president continues to dominate the conversation with erratic outbursts rather than campaign messaging. (Monday’s tax cut event was overshadowed by Trump’s attack on the Pope, yesterday’s by his threats toward Powell … How will today pan out?) “The road to victory runs through a consistent economic message,” Trump’s 2024 campaign aide Bryan Lanza tells Dasha. “Unfortunately, President Trump ignores the road map.”

Spelling it out: Another Republican operative close to the White House was even more blunt. “Everything is made more difficult by the nonsense coming out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue,” they said.

The first wish of almost any Republican you speak to is for a rapid end to the war, and a stabilizing of energy prices as fast as possible. The president keeps insisting it’s almost over, without evidence. But here’s a question: Could a rapid peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon pave the way for a broader agreement? Trump suggested late last night that the two nations’ leaders, Benjamin Netanyahu and Joseph Aoun, will actually speak today — a stunning breakthrough, if confirmed.

And at the same time, Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on Iran’s ailing economy, and we’ll get more detail on the U.S. blockade at an 8 a.m. briefing (timed, presumably, to hit Fox & Friends) with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. We’ll also hear from Army Secretary Dan Driscoll before a House appropriations committee at 10 a.m. There’s still nothing confirmed regarding a fresh round of U.S.-Iran talks.

PLANET DEM

HEADLINES FROM FEC FILING DAY TO MAKE DEMS SMILE: “Sherrod Brown posts big cash advantage over Jon Husted,” in Ohio, by POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish … “Roy Cooper far outraises Michael Whatley in North Carolina Senate race,” by POLITICO’s Liz Crampton … “Peltola outraises Sullivan, lags in cash on hand,” in Alaska, by POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky …“Ossoff builds massive cash edge as Georgia GOP field remains unsettled,” by POLITICO’s Erin Doherty

NOTABLE PUSHBACK: Forty of the Senate’s 47 Democrats took a stance against Israel last night in what felt like a watershed moment for the party. Even as Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) resolutions to block arms sales to Israel were voted down (again) by Republicans in the Senate, they received far more Democratic backing than ever before — including from 2028 hopefuls like Arizona Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego and Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin, per NYT. It’s the clearest sign yet of the growing discontent within the party surrounding Israel and its conflicts in the Middle East.

Opposing any funds toward Israel was a fringe idea a couple years ago — but no longer, Axios’ Andrew Solender writes. “I’ve never seen public opinion change as fast on any issue,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said.

The pro-Israel lobby will likely take another big hit today, with progressive Democratic organizer Analilia Mejia primed to win the special election in New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s former district.

Mejia is a former Sanders aide who was boosted in February’s primary by a bungled AIPAC decision to target the race’s frontrunner, former Rep. Tom Malinowski, for not being suitably pro-Israel — allowing the far more critical Mejia to win the race. She was the only Dem in the race to agree that Israel was committing genocide in Gaza, POLITICO’s Matt Friedman reports, and faced criticism for not raising her hand when asked if she agreed Jews “have the right to self-determination in their ancestral homeland, what is commonly referred to as Zionism.”

“Even as Analilia Mejia fights charges of antisemitism and runs well to the left of the last representative to hold the seat, every major indicator suggests voters in what was once a reliably red district are so fed up with the president that they are willing to send a candidate to Washington who could easily join the Squad,” Matt writes.

TODAY ON THE HILL

MAHA MARATHON: Get used to the sight of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the Hill. Today RFK Jr. will kick off two of seven congressional hearings the HHS secretary has scheduled in just one week. And his new podcast just dropped its first episode, featuring chef Robert Irvine.

What to watch: For Democrats, it’s a chance to attack Kennedy over his stance on vaccines, and stripping down the agencies he oversees. But Kennedy will be keener to discuss his more popular policy wins like dietary guidelines, food dyes and lower drug prices, POLITICO’s Carmen Paun and colleagues report. The next few days should prove a decent opportunity for Kennedy to flex his political muscle and test the White House theory that he can boost the GOP’s midterm prospects.

What else to watch: Will anyone ask the secretary what possessed him to perform post-mortem surgery on roadkill? (This was quite the headline, even for TMZ.)

FISA FIGHT: Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to tee up a procedural vote today to renew government spy powers, after disagreements yesterday over possible amendments ended with GOP leaders canceling a vote last night. They’ve been talking with White House about a possible vote on a provision of an amendment by Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.), as negotiations continued overnight. But the clock is ticking, with the program under Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act set to expire Monday.

FED UP: Republicans are getting more frustrated over the investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell standing in the way of Kevin Warsh’s nomination, POLITICO’s Inside Congress reports. A growing number of GOP members are calling for Trump to end the probe over fears that Warsh’s nomination will get stuck. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who holds the deciding vote on the Senate Banking panel, is blocking the nomination over the Powell probe — and he’s not backing down, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Jasper Goodman write.

ALSO ON DECK TODAY: OMB Director Russ Vought, CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott, ICE Acting Director Todd Lyons, USCIS Director Joseph Edlow, CFTC Chair Michael Selig, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and USTR Rep Jamieson Greer will all be on the Hill today for their own hearings.

BIG DAY FOR THE ARC DE TRUMPF — “The Commission of Fine Arts, which is filled with Mr. Trump’s appointees, is scheduled [today] to consider Mr. Trump’s plan to build a 250-foot arch on the other side of the Potomac River from the Lincoln Memorial,” NYT’s Luke Broadwater and Zachary Small report. “But Mr. Trump’s push to build the giant arch — more than quadrupling its size from original plans — has alienated early proponents of the project, classical architects and veterans groups who say it will diminish nearby Arlington Cemetery.”

PULTE STRIKES AGAIN — The president discussed the now-infamous “Trump as Jesus” meme with Housing Finance Agency chief Bill Pulte before posting it online, Axios’ Marc Caputo scoops. “Pulte brought the image to Trump’s attention, [two] advisers told Axios. It’s not clear whether he just displayed the rendering on his phone or actually sent it to the president. ‘Everyone thought it was a joke,’ one of the advisers said.”

IN MEMORIAM — “Kevin Klose, who reported behind the Iron Curtain and led NPR, dies at 85,” by WaPo’s Scott Nover: “Kevin Klose, a longtime Washington Post journalist who reported from behind the Iron Curtain and later turned to public broadcasting, helping lead NPR into a new era of financial independence while serving for about a decade as the organization’s president and CEO, died Wednesday at a memory care center in D.C. He was 85.”

OUT AND ABOUT — Center Forward hosted a welcome reception yesterday for new Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Mark Wiseman at the U.S. Capitol Building. SPOTTED: Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), Tim Kennedy (D-N.Y.), Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.), Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.), Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Carol Miller (R-W.Va.), Jim Costa (D-Calif.), Nick Langworthy (R-N.Y.), Becca Balint (D-Vt.), Wesley Bell (D-Mo.) and Tom Tiffany (R-Wis), Leigh Ann Caldwell, Abby Goddard, Francesca Chambers, John McCarthy, Beth Burke, Matt Mowers, Shannon Kellogg, Lee Kane, Rhett Buttle and Scotty Greenwood.

— Semafor hosted its Trade Secretary Dinner, as part of its World Economy summit, last night at the National Archives, featuring interviews with USTR Jamieson Greer and Michael Kratsios. SPOTTED: Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Kellyanne Conway, José Muñoz, Mark Ein, Divesh Makan, Justin Smith, Ben Smith, Albert Cheng, Patrice Louvet, John Santora, Toby Neugebauer, Stephanie Ruhle, Tom Hale, Reed Albergotti, Liz Hoffman, Edward Woodford, Christian Ulbrich, Brieane Olson, Gina Chon, Rachel Oppenheim, Prashant Rao and Jean-Frédéric Paulsen.

— Members of the Patriotic Millionaires hosted their 7th annual “Taxation & Libations” reception last night at Smoke & Mirrors at the AC Hotel, following their spring symposium and a day of lobbying on Capitol Hill focused on tax policy and economic inequality. SPOTTED: Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Reps. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.), Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.), Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.), Laura Friedman (D-Calif.) and Bill Foster (D-Ill.), Pennsylvania State Rep. Chris Rabb, Erica Payne, Morris Pearl, Holli Woodings, Gene Haigh, Ben Jealous, Maria Teresa Kumar, Davis Kass, Christina Sevilla, Michelle Ringuette, Connie Coopersmith and Susan McCue.

— Engage hosted a dinner at a historic home in Georgetown celebrating the new book “We the Women” by Norah O’Donnell. SPOTTED: Rachel Pearson, Reps. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), April McClain Delaney (D-Md.) and Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Pa.), Jill Kozeny, Jane Adams, Adrienne Elrod, Vanessa Broadhurst, Lisa Goeas, Ashley Davis, Virginia Boney Moore, Julie Morse, Crystal Anderson and Riley Tracy.

TRANSITIONS — Democracy Forward is adding Anna Pacilio as director of media relations, Ashley Patterson as chief of executive operations and program integration and Trishala Deb as interim chief engagement officer. Pacilio previously worked at Reproductive Freedom for All, Patterson at the Luupe and Deb at Collaborative for Gender + Reproductive Equity. … Charlie Husser is now director of public policy and stakeholder relations at McUlsky Health Force. He most recently worked for the Arthritis Foundation. …

… Julia Tarver Wood has joined Wilson Sonsini’s antitrust and competition practice. She most recently worked in the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division. … The Roosevelt Institute has announced its first group of Good Life Residents: Ethan Struby, Christian Flores, Erin Lockwood, Jonathan Schwabish, Tyler Bond and Lena Simet. … Peter Watkins is now EVP at Advocacy Marketing Partners. Watkins, a Bush White House alum, most recently was at Watkins Global Strategies and Rep. Blake Moore’s campaign.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Christian Hartranft, chief of staff at the Aspen Institute, and Hannah Hartranft, who most recently worked at the Commerce Department, welcomed Jacob Miles Hartranft on April 8.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Frank Mrvan (D-Ind.) and Sam Liccardo (D-Calif.) … former Secretary of State Antony Blinken … Ann Romney … Doug Heye … Prime Policy Group’s Scott Pastrick … Morgan Jones … NEA’s Ramona Oliver … Matt Duckworth … Sally-Shannon Birkel of the U.S. Chamber … Deborah Zabarenko … Reuters’ Andy Sullivan … Kelly Gibson of Bryson Gillette … Spencer Brown … POLITICO’s Blake Jones … Chris Eddowes of Atlas Crossing … Bradley Beychok … Katie Oppenheim … Nick McGee … S&P Global’s Josh Goldstein … Virginia Coyne … Dezenhall Resources’ Mary Grace Lucas … NBC’s Mosheh Gains … Frances Lanzone of Amazon … former Alaska Gov. Bill Walker … Tori O’Neal … former Reps. Cliff Stearns (R-Fla.) and John Delaney (D-Md.) … Spencer Coker … former VA Secretary Anthony Principi … AP’s Ted Anthony … DLCC’s Sam Paisley … Nao Matsukata … American Conservation Coalition’s Kacey Shriner … Frederick Graefe

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