Who Scotland need to cheer for to keep their World Cup hopes alive as a best third-placed team – and the matches the Tartan Army will be watching through their fingers
Scotland manager Steve Clarke has admitted he believes his team will ‘come home’ from the World Cup after defeat to Brazil left them hanging on to their hopes of reaching the knockout rounds.
The Tartan Army will have to watch nervously over the coming days to see if Scotland can finish the race as one of the eight best third teams.
The heavy defeat to Brazil had a high cost Scotland dropped down the rankings due to goal difference and remained in sixth place at the final whistle.
Scotland’s situation worsened just hours later after South Africa beat South Korea 1-0 to automatically qualify from the group. South Korea remain in third place following the defeat, but are guaranteed to finish above Scotland due to better goal difference.
As a result, Scotland have fallen to seventh place, while the Tartan Army will need help from elsewhere if they are to continue their World Cup quest.
Daily Mail Sports It takes a closer look at what Scotland need to do to keep their World Cup dreams alive.
Scotland manager Steve Clarke believes his team will “come home” after losing 3-0 to Brazil
Scotland will need the support of many teams to reach the last 32 of the World Cup
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Why are the third-place teams passing?
The expansion of the World Cup from 32 to 48 teams required FIFA to rethink the format of the group stages.
FIFA’s initial plan was to have 16 groups of three teams, with the winners and runners-up advancing to the new last 32 stage of the competition, while the last-place team would go home.
The governing body revised its plans in 2023, opting to return to four-team groups, citing ‘sporting integrity, player welfare, team travel, commercial and sporting appeal as well as team and fan experience’.
An important consideration was that the revised format would reduce the risk of collusion between teams, preventing a scenario where two teams may play for a certain result in their final matches, allowing both to advance at the expense of a side that has played two of its matches earlier.
The return to four-team groups confirmed FIFA’s confirmation that the top two placed teams in each of the 12 groups will advance to the last 32, with the top eight third-placed teams also progressing.
A similar format has been implemented in the European Championship since 2016; here, four of the six best third-place teams reach the knockout stages.
| Set | Played | To win | drawn | Loss | For | Against | Goal difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 2. Sweden | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 3. Croatia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 4. South Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 5. Algeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 6. Paraguay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 7. Scotland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 8. Cape Verde | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 9. Belgium | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 10. Democratic Republic of the Congo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 11. Ecuador | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12. Senegal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
Who should Scotland be cheering for?
Scotland fans should cheer for Germany and Ivory Coast first They will face Ecuador and Curacao in Group E today. If Ecuador and Curacao fail to win, Scotland are certain to finish ahead of the third-placed team in Group E in the standings.
Group F offers only small hope for Scotland needing Sweden to lose to Japan to go above these by four or more goals.
Scotland fans will then need to attend Australia’s match against Paraguay, which will feature the second and third placed teams in Group D. The two teams now have three points (the same as Scotland) but both have better goal difference.
A draw wouldn’t work for Scotland as the Tartan Army should be cheering on an outright win for either Australia or Paraguay. Australia are the best bet as a win by two or more goals would give Scotland a goal difference advantage over Paraguay. In contrast, for Scotland to get past Australia, Paraguay must win by four goals or more.
Senegal’s meeting with Iraq in Group I will be worrying. Senegal, which has not yet received any points, only needs to beat Iraq to be above Scotland as the goal difference is equal. Iraq can advance if they beat Senegal by three goals.
Germany are one of the teams Scotland fans should be cheering for in the coming days
Scotland fans will fear Senegal victory in Friday’s match against Iraq
The important match for Scotland in Group G is Egypt’s match against Iran. Egypt’s victory will ensure that the third-placed side in the group gets less than three points.
The situation is the same in Group H; Spain’s victory over Uruguay prevents the third-placed team from overtaking Scotland.
In England’s group, Ghana will need to beat Croatia by three goals.
Scotland will have concerns about DR Congo’s match against Uzbekistan in Group K. Victory for DR Congo ensures the team will finish ahead of Clarke in third place. However, Uzbekistan needs to win by four goals to get above Scotland.
If Scotland’s final group hopes are still alive, all eyes will be on Austria’s match against Algeria. A draw between the teams would see Algeria, currently in third place, improve on Scotland’s points standings.
Austria winning by two goals or Algeria winning by four goals will be the results the Tartan Army will be praying for.
Who could Scotland face if they progress?
If Scotland advance as one of the eight best third-placed teams, they will face the winners of Groups A, E and I.
Mexico have already been confirmed as Group A winners with their last-32 tie in front of home fans at the Azteca Stadium on June 30.
If England win their group and lock in that part of the draw, it would eliminate the possibility of Scotland potentially meeting England in the last 16.
Scotland’s other opponents in the last 32 are daunting; Germany is clinched as the winner of Group E, while France currently tops Group I.
These possible connections will take place in Boston or New Jersey.
What about England fans?
For England fans hoping for Scotland to be sent home early, the equation is simple; Cheer on the Scottish supported teams in the matches above!
England fans should also pay attention to the third-placed teams the Three Lions could face in the last 32.
Who might England face?
England are currently top of Group L and will be clinched winners if they maintain their goal difference advantage over Ghana by beating Panama in their last game.
This means Thomas Tuchel’s side will play their last 32 games in Atlanta against one of the best third-placed teams from groups E, H, I, J, K.
As it stands, England are expected to face Cape Verde, who are third in Group H, for the first time in the World Cup. The winners of Mexico and Scotland will be the opponents in the last 16.
If England finish second in the group, they will face Group K runner-up Portugal in the last 32.
If Thomas Tuchel’s side win Group L they will be in line to face a third-place team
Portugal could leapfrog Colombia if they beat the South Americans in their final group match, but a defeat could give DR Congo the chance to secure third place.
This would put the Three Lions on track to face Spain in the last 16 in what would be a repeat of the Euro 2024 final.
A shock defeat to Panama and a narrow win for Croatia against Ghana could see England move forward as the best third-placed team.
In this scenario, they are guaranteed to face the winner of Group K, either Colombia or Portugal. This could be followed by a last 16 match against Switzerland.
