Who will be Iran’s next Supreme Leader? Ayatollah Khamenei’s death during US-Israeli bombing sparks succession concerns
Iran’s Religious Leader Ayotallah Khamenei was Killed
The military operation launched on Saturday focused on the symbolic and literal heart of Iranian power: the Pasteur gated compound. This high-security area, where the Religious Leader’s residence, the presidential palace and the Supreme National Security Council are located, was described as “the compound of the tyrants” by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The attacks were aimed at cutting off the regime’s leadership just as they entered a 12-day war with Israel. Although Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi initially insisted that everything was under control and that senior officials had survived, the extent of the destruction indicated a catastrophic blow to the regime’s central nervous system.
Trump’s Truth post after Ayotallah’s murder
United States President Donald Trump, who used Truth Social to break the news, claimed that Khamenei was unable to escape the “Highly Advanced Tracking Systems” operated by US Intelligence in coordination with Israel. Trump described the 86-year-old leader as one of the worst names in history and claimed that the Religious Leader and many other senior officials were neutralized in the attacks. The American declaration added a layer of psychological warfare to the physical bombardment, forcing the Iranian state apparatus to scramble for a response as claims of the leader’s death spread like wildfire through encrypted messaging apps and satellite broadcasts.
Who will be Iran’s New Religious Leader?
Before the attacks, Khamenei had identified a shortlist of three preferred successors to be presented to the Assembly of Experts. These candidates represent different shades of the regime’s survival strategy: Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje, the current head of the judiciary; Ali Asghar Hejazi, Khamenei’s long-time private secretary; and Hassan Khomeini, a moderate cleric and grandson of the founder of the revolution. Khamenei, in particular, had openly taken action to prevent the hereditary succession to his son, Mojtaba, for fear that it would weaken the ideological foundations of the state. But the path to a speedy appointment has become increasingly dangerous, with reports suggesting Hejazi may also have been killed in the Saturday attacks. Meanwhile, regime loyalists led by veteran politician Ali Larijani promised fiery revenge and vowed to make “Zionist criminals and dishonorable Americans” regret the attack.
Iranian Succession: Regency of Ali Larijani
In the days before the attack, Khamenei had effectively sidelined President Masoud Pezeshkian and handed over day-to-day management of the country to Ali Larijani. This move created a four-tiered backup plan for both political and military roles, aimed at keeping the wheels of the state turning even if the Supreme Leader became unreachable. Key figures in this contingency plan include Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and military advisor General Yahya Rahim Safavi. Despite these preparations, the uncertainty late Saturday about who was actually responsible suggests that the “protector of the revolution” may have prepared for his death, but was not prepared for the chaos created by the regime’s own sudden collapse.
(With agency input)
