Why Andy Burnham might not be worried about charming Donald Trump

A.While the parliamentary machinery is in motion and Whitehall is beginning to prepare for the seemingly inevitable Andy Burnham premiership, there is one major foreign policy question that remains to be answered: how will he deal with Donald Trump?

The erratic and irascible 47th president has been a nightmare for leaders of Western democracies throughout his tenure in the Oval Office, and his erratic and chaotic approach to dealing with friends and foes alike has not made Sir Keir Starmer’s job any easier.

But oddly enough, there is a sense that Mr. Trump’s mood swings may be less of a problem for Mr. Burnham; This is not because he is better equipped to deal with it than Sir Keir, but because of his timetable in America.

The first key date for the incoming Burnham government will be in late September, when Sir Keir will attend his first international meeting at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) if he replaces him.

UNGA’s trip to New York will likely be the new prime minister’s first meeting with the US president. All eyes will definitely be on them to see if they gel.

But the second trip will be to Florida in November for the G20 summit, at which point the midterm elections will take place, a key date in the US democratic calendar.

Trump’s Republicans and MAGA supporters are expected to struggle; Most pollsters had given Democrats a national lead since the beginning of the year.

The focus will turn to potential candidates trying to win tickets for Republicans and Democrats in the presidential election in almost two years. Trump’s presidency will enter the traditional “lame duck” phase, where power quickly runs out because he cannot escape again.

That doesn’t mean these unconventional presidents can’t cause trouble in their final two years and are unlikely to settle for a final lap of honor like their predecessors.

There may still be new tariffs and even other problems in the Middle East, but still the need to pay homage to him as Sir Keir did will be greatly diminished.

So when Mr. Burnham arrives in New York in September, he will be encouraged to be less subservient than Sir Keir and more vocal about British interests.

It is also clear that if he appoints Ed Miliband as chancellor, he will not back down on issues such as not extracting North Sea oil and will not regret his plans to destroy the economic model of the last 40 years.

Trump won’t like any of this, so we can probably expect some barbed posts on Truth Social.

It may well be possible that Mr. Burnham does not care and tries to get to know potential successors in the White House, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, California Governor Gavin Newsom or Vice President J.D. Vance.

But what works in Mr. Burnham’s favor is that Trump appears to like and respect politicians who have a flair for celebrities.

Mr. Burnham certainly does that. He comes with plenty of empathy and emotional intelligence. A talent that will make people like him.

A bit like Sir Keir and former foreign secretary and current deputy prime minister David Lammy, Mr Burnham’s past disparaging tweets about Mr Trump are unlikely to matter much.

And it is likely that transatlantic special relations will continue to be a priority for the UK as it continues its restructuring efforts with the EU.

But in the end, it all depends on whether President Trump is convinced by Mr. Burnham’s smile and cheerful personality.

The only thing that can be guaranteed for both men is that everything will be completely unpredictable.