Why Caitlin Clark’s poor ball security means you should fade the Indiana Fever against the Phoenix Mercury
The Indiana Fever (9-7), who have lost two straight games against the Atlanta Dream, begin another two-game series at home against the Phoenix Mercury (5-12) on Monday. On FanDuel, Indiana’s money line is -290 and he’s a -7.5 favorite at 177.5 overall as of 1:30 PM ET.
Indy was on a four-game winning streak before losing its previous two games to Atlanta. Phoenix ended its four-game losing streak by defeating Seattle Storm 93-73 in its last match.
This is the first Mercury-Fever game of the season. Phoenix beat Indiana in two of their three games last year. However, Indy closed the gap twice and Caitlin Clark did not play in either of those games.
ANGEL REESE AND CAITLIN CLARK EXCHANG WORDS AT THE SECOND DREAM-FEVER MEETING IN THREE DAYS
Indiana Fever’s Caitlin Clark drives to the basket against Atlanta Dream’s Angel Reese during the second quarter at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia on June 20, 2026. (Colin Hubbard/Getty Images)
Clark averaged 26.0 points and 8.6 assists on 49.4% shooting in his last five games. However, he remains careless with the ball; Clark is averaging a WNBA-worst 4.8 turnovers per game. This is my favorite reason why I score with Mercury Monday.
Best Bet: Phoenix Mercury +7.5, up to +6.5
Clark’s mediocre defense and poor decision-making are why his on/off net rating is -4.3 this year. He has 48 turnovers from “bad passes,” more than three times more than his next closest teammate.
As I’ve written a million times when handicapping basketball, the “battle for possession” is the most important thing in basketball. At this point the matchup favors the Mercury, who have better turnover rates at both ends of the floor.
Caitlin Clark introduced her new Nike signature shoe against Atlanta Dream. (Photo: AJ Mast/NBAE via Getty Images) ((Photo: AJ Mast/NBAE via Getty Images))
Phoenix is also the oldest team in the Association, featuring six-time All-Star forward Alyssa Thomas and wing DeWanna Bonner. The Mercury’s veterans could take advantage of an Indiana team that makes too many mistakes.
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I also don’t watch much of the WNBA so I’m going off the stats, but I was impressed with Thomas’ play. She has made seven WNBA All-Defensive Teams, ranks second on the Phoenix in PER and leads the Mercury in assists per game despite not making a single three-pointer this year.
I like that Phoenix runs its offense around a 6-foot-10 forward (Thomas) who doesn’t take bad shots against an Indiana team that doesn’t have a strong perimeter defense. Plus, Fire is in a deadly transit, but Mercury can control the flow because they will likely win the “possession war.”
Caitlin Clark and the Fever had a strong performance but lost to the Atlanta Dream. (Photo: Andy Lyons/Getty Images) ((Photo: Andy Lyons/Getty Images))
Phoenix, meanwhile, thinks he has a “strength-weakness” advantage at the foul line. The Mercury allow their opponents the fewest free throw attempts per game, while the Fever allow the most.
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Finally, Phoenix has a rest advantage over Indiana in this game. This is the Mercury’s third game in the past week, while the Fever are playing their fourth game in that span. FYI, I expect Indy to win on Monday, but Phoenix +7.5 is a “plus EV” bet given their matchup advantage.
Prediction: Fire 79, Mercury 76
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