Why China won’t mind a closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Topshot – China Foreign Minister Wang (C) welcomed Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov (R) and Iran Kazeem Ghabadi before a meeting on the Iranian Nuclear issue at the Diayutai State Guest House in Beijing on March 14, 2025.
AFP | Getty Images
On Saturday, the bombs and missiles in the nuclear places of Iran are raining-while the war between Israel and Iran, seems to support the long-standing ally in Tehran.
However, the support will be tempted by a limited feature as a peace broker in the region, and the potential will be upward if the Petrol Choketpoints squeezes the US more than they damage Beijing.
Beijing has approached Iran in recent years and the two countries have cooperated regularly Military Exercises And to sign a 25 -year strategic partnership in economic, military and security cooperation in 2021.
Iran’s population of approximately 91 millionMore than Israel’s 9.8 million people, when combined with plenty of crude oil reserves, it made it a natural partner. China’s belt and road attemptThe Global Times, Beijing government’s mouthtime, was defined as a way to “resist the US hegemony”.
China’s primary economic interests lie in the Hormuz Strait, one of the most important trade routes for its access to Iranian oil and global crude oil flows.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil or one -fifth of global consumption flowed through the Bosphorus in 2024. Half of Beijing’s oil imports passed the lock track – Temporary Solutions System to Jump Western BanksShipping services and transactions in Yuan to avoid triggering sanctions.
Neo Wang, the leading role of the Chinese economist and strategist Heat because of the limited impact on the strategic calculation on Israel and Washington’s intervention, said China’s “anyway will keep Iran away.”
Wang may find value from any chaos in the Middle East, which entered a trade war with the United States.
Shortly after being attacked by Israel on June 12, China promised to support Iran by “maintaining national sovereignty” Beijing was condemned As a violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security and regional integrity “.
However, despite the first support for Iran, Beijing’s discourse was more measured, shorter than condemning Israel’s military actions, but focused on mediation dialogue and ceasefire.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang, Israeli counterpart In a telephone conversation where Israel’s strikes were “unacceptable”, he only avoided the words “condemn” in calling them.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Monday that Beijing rejected the discourse of Iran in another sign on Monday, said that the stability of the Gulf of Basra and its surrounding waterways is common to the international community.
Beijing said to a large extent that “he refrained from Israel’s direct condemnation while remaining diplomatic with Iran,” he said, political risk consulting company Eurasia Group analysts, “to include tensions and prevent the spread of conflict on a wider region and affect economic and strategic interests.”
Is it a war of durability?
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio Sunday He urged China to deter him to close Iran’s Hormuz Strait.
While many of them waited for Beijing to do so, some suggested that a blockade of the coil could be suitable for China, because it was ready to suck the coup better than the US and the European Union, and China could easily return to other alternative oil resources.
According to the Energy Information Administration, China’s primary oil resources Most of Malaysia’s exports are actually re -labeled or transferred from Iran, but it is Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Iraq and Oman.
“If China and Europe destabilize China and Europe, China will be happy to see a major increase in oil prices,” Brookings Institute’s senior member Robin Brooks said. He said.
“If China means that the United States has suffered even more, it may not be angry to pay more than other sources,” Andrew Bishop, the President of Signum Global Advisors’ global Advisors, reiterating this view.
On Sunday, the Iranian Parliament supported the decision to close the Bosphorus, waiting for the final approval by the National Security Council. This sent more than 2% higher oil futures during the early Asian hours. The US WTI Hound increased by more than 2% per barrel and rose to $ 75.22, while global comparison increased by 2% to $ 78.53 per barrel.
Opportunity in Crisis
China’s Ambassador of UN Fu Cong had harsh words for the USA UN Security Council Meeting On Sunday, Fu chose Israel and immediately called for cease -fire and hostility.
Although China seems to support stability in the Middle East, it can benefit from the US participation in the conflict.
China Beige Book General Manager Shehzad Qazi, the United States hit Iran “China gave an important point of speech: China, not global order and peace threatening America,” he said.
China may have the hope of acting as a peaceful in 2023 based on a peace agreement mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
However, Israel said that China would be skeptical of China as a mediator because of the harmony of China with Iran and an ally of Iran, which attacked Israel in October 2023 and the possibility of angering the United States.
“China has offered to mediate the conflict or offer any financial support to Iran. Xi wants to eat and want to eat and want to ask.” He said.
